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1. Altered precipitation has asymmetric impacts on annual plant communities in warm and cool growing seasons

   https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2021.00014  

   Spasojevic, Marko J.; Homyak, Peter M.; Jenerette, G. Darrel; Goulden, Mike L.; McFaul, Shane; Madsen-McQueen, Tesa; Schauer, Lisa; Solis, Miguel (January 2022, Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene)

   While altered precipitation regimes can greatly impact biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, we lack a comprehensive view of how these impacts are mediated by changes to the seasonality of precipitation (i.e., whether it rains more/less in one season relative to another). Over 2 years, we examined how altered seasonal precipitation influenced annual plant biomass and species richness, Simpson’s diversity, and community composition of annual plant communities in a dryland ecosystem that receives both winter and summer rainfall and has distinct annual plant communities in each season. Using a rainfall exclusion, collection, and distribution system, we excluded precipitation and added water during each season individually and compared responses to control plots which received ambient summer and winter precipitation. In control plots, we found five times greater annual plant biomass, twice as many species, and higher diversity in winter relative to summer. Adding water increased annual plant biomass in summer only, did not change richness or diversity in either summer or winter, and modestly shifted community composition. Excluding precipitation in either season reduced annual plant biomass, richness, and Simpson’s diversity. However, in the second winter season, biomass was higher in the plots where precipitation was excluded in the previous summer seasons suggesting that reduced productivity in the summer may facilitate biomass in the winter. Our results suggest that increased precipitation in summer may have stronger short-term impacts on annual plant biodiversity and ecosystem function relative to increased winter precipitation. In contrast, decreasing precipitation may have ubiquitous negative effects on annual plants across both summer and winter but may lead to increased biomass in the following off-seasons. These patterns suggest that annual plant communities exhibit asymmetries in their community and ecosystem responses to altered seasonal precipitation and that considering the seasonality of precipitation is important for predicting the effects of altered precipitation regimes. 

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2. Overcoming data gaps using integrated models to estimate migratory species' dynamics during cryptic periods of the annual cycle

   https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14282  

   Farr, Matthew T.; Zylstra, Erin R.; Ries, Leslie; Zipkin, Elise F. (January 2024, Methods in Ecology and Evolution)

   Abstract Environmental and anthropogenic factors affect the population dynamics of migratory species throughout their annual cycles. However, identifying the spatiotemporal drivers of migratory species' abundances is difficult because of extensive gaps in monitoring data. The collection of unstructured opportunistic data by volunteer (citizen science) networks provides a solution to address data gaps for locations and time periods during which structured, design‐based data are difficult or impossible to collect.To estimate population abundance and distribution at broad spatiotemporal extents, we developed an integrated model that incorporates unstructured data during time periods and spatial locations when structured data are unavailable. We validated our approach through simulations and then applied the framework to the eastern North American migratory population of monarch butterflies during their spring breeding period in eastern Texas. Spring climate conditions have been identified as a key driver of monarch population sizes during subsequent summer and winter periods. However, low monarch densities during the spring combined with very few design‐based surveys in the region have limited the ability to isolate effects of spring weather variables on monarchs.Simulation results confirmed the ability of our integrated model to accurately and precisely estimate abundance indices and the effects of covariates during locations and time periods in which structured sampling are lacking. In our case study, we combined opportunistic monarch observations during the spring migration and breeding period with structured data from the summer Midwestern breeding grounds. Our model revealed a nonstationary relationship between weather conditions and local monarch abundance during the spring, driven by spatially varying vegetation and temperature conditions.Data for widespread and migratory species are often fragmented across multiple monitoring programs, potentially requiring the use of both structured and unstructured data sources to obtain complete geographic coverage. Our integrated model can estimate population abundance at broad spatiotemporal extents despite structured data gaps during the annual cycle by leveraging opportunistic data. 

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3. Parasite dynamics in North American monarchs predicted by host density and seasonal migratory culling

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13678  

   Majewska, Ania A.; Davis, Andrew K.; Altizer, Sonia; de Roode, Jacobus C. (March 2022, Journal of Animal Ecology)

   Abstract Insect–pathogen dynamics can show seasonal and inter‐annual variations that covary with fluctuations in insect abundance and climate. Long‐term analyses are especially needed to track parasite dynamics in migratory insects, in part because their vast habitat ranges and high mobility might dampen local effects of density and climate on infection prevalence.Monarch butterfliesDanaus plexippusare commonly infected with the protozoanOphryocystis elektroscirrha(OE). Because this parasite lowers monarch survival and flight performance, and because migratory monarchs have experienced declines in recent decades, it is important to understand the patterns and drivers of infection.Here we compiled data onOEinfection spanning 50 years, from wild monarchs sampled in the United States, Canada and Mexico during summer breeding, fall migrating and overwintering periods. We examined eastern versus western North American monarchs separately, to ask how abundance estimates, resource availability, climate and breeding season length impact infection trends. We further assessed the intensity of migratory culling, which occurs when infected individuals are removed from the population during migration.Average infection prevalence was four times higher in western compared to eastern subpopulations. In eastern North America, the proportion of infected monarchs increased threefold since the mid‐2000s. In the western region, the proportion of infected monarchs declined sharply from 2000 to 2015, and increased thereafter. For both eastern and western subpopulations, years with greater summer adult abundance predicted greater infection prevalence, indicating that transmission increases with host breeding density. Environmental variables (temperature and NDVI) were not associated with changes in the proportion of infected adults. We found evidence for migratory culling of infected butterflies, based on declines in parasitism during fall migration. We estimated that tens of millions fewer monarchs reach overwintering sites in Mexico as a result ofOE, highlighting the need to consider the parasite as a potential threat to the monarch population.Increases in infection among eastern North American monarchs post‐2002 suggest that changes to the host’s ecology or environment have intensified parasite transmission. Further work is needed to examine the degree to which human practices, such as mass caterpillar rearing and the widespread planting of exotic milkweed, have contributed to this trend. 

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4. Foliar disease incidence in a tropical seedling community is density dependent and varies along a regional precipitation gradient

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.14259  

   Milici, Valerie R.; Comita, Liza S.; Bagchi, Robert (January 2024, Journal of Ecology)

   Abstract Many studies identify fungal and oomycete phytopathogens as natural enemies capable of influencing plant species composition and promoting diversity in plant communities. However, little is known about how plant‐pathogen interactions vary along regional abiotic gradients or with tree species characteristics, which limits our understanding of the causes of variation in tree species richness.We surveyed 10,756 seedlings from 272 tree species for disease symptoms along a mean annual precipitation gradient in the tropical wet forests of Central Panama for 3 months in the early wet season (June–August) and 2 months in the following dry season (March–April). Over 99% of observed disease symptoms were caused by necrotrophic foliar pathogens, while less than 1% of symptoms were attributed to soilborne pathogens. Foliar disease incidence was inversely related to mean annual precipitation, a pattern which may be due to greater disease susceptibility among dry forest species.Foliar disease incidence increased with conspecific seedling density but did not respond to the proximity of conspecific adults. Although foliar disease incidence decreased as mean annual precipitation increased, the strength of conspecific density‐ or distance‐dependence was independent of the precipitation gradient.Seedlings of common tree species and species dispersed by non‐flying mammals had a higher risk of foliar pathogen incidence. Increased disease in common species may help reduce their dominance.Synthesis. The increases in foliar pathogen incidence with conspecific seedling density, species abundance, and dispersal mechanism indicate that foliar disease incidence is non‐random and may contribute to the regulation of tropical plant communities and species coexistence. Furthermore, the relationships between foliar disease incidence, dispersal mechanism and precipitation suggest plant‐pathogen interactions could shift as a response to climate change and disruption of the disperser community. 

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5. Soil microbial legacies influence freeze–thaw responses of soil

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.14273  

   Pastore, Melissa A; Classen, Aimée T; English, Marie E; Frey, Serita D; Knorr, Melissa A; Rand, Karin; Adair, E Carol (April 2023, Functional Ecology)

   Abstract Warmer winters with less snowfall are increasing the frequency of soil freeze–thaw cycles across temperate regions. Soil microbial responses to freeze–thaw cycles vary and some of this variation may be explained by microbial conditioning to prior winter conditions, yet such linkages remain largely unexplored. We investigated how differences in temperature history influenced microbial community composition and activity in response to freeze–thaw cycles.We collected soil microbial communities that developed under colder (high elevation) and warmer (low elevation) temperature regimes in spruce‐fir forests, then added each of these soil microbial communities to a sterile bulk‐soil in a laboratory microcosm experiment. The inoculated high‐elevation cold and low‐elevation warm microcosms were subjected to diurnal freeze–thaw cycles or constant above‐freezing temperature for 9 days. Then, all microcosms were subjected to a 7‐day above‐freezing recovery period.Overall, we found that the high‐elevation cold community had, relative to the low‐elevation warm community, a smaller reduction in microbial respiration (CO₂flux) during freeze–thaw cycles. Further, the high‐elevation cold community, on average, experienced lower freeze–thaw‐induced bacterial mortality than the warm community and may have partly acclimated to freeze–thaw cycles via increased lipid membrane fluidity. Respiration of both microbial communities quickly recovered following the end of the freeze–thaw treatment period and there were no changes in soil extractable carbon or nitrogen.Our results provide evidence that past soil temperature conditions may influence the responses of soil microbial communities to freeze–thaw cycles. The microbial community that developed under a colder temperature regime was more tolerant of freeze–thaw cycles than the community that developed under a warmer temperature regime, although both communities displayed some level of resilience. Taken together, our data suggest that microbial communities conditioned to less extreme winter soil temperatures may be most vulnerable to rapid changes in freeze–thaw regimes as winters warm, but they also may be able to quickly recover if mortality is low. Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog. 

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