Beaches and inlets throughout the U.S. have been stabilized for purposes of navigation, erosion mitigation, and economic resilience, commonly leading to changes in shoreline dynamics and downdrift erosion/accretion patterns. The developed beach of Plum Island, Massachusetts is highly dynamic, experiencing regular complex erosion / accretion patterns along much of the shoreline. We analyzed > 100 years of high-water line positions derived from satellite imagery, t-sheets, historical maps, and aerial photography. Unlike most beaches, the river-proximal sections of Plum Island are not uniformly retreating. Rather, the beach undergoes short-term erosion, followed by periods of accretion and return to a long-term mean stable shoreline position. These cycles occur over different time frames and in different segments of the beach, creating an ephemeral erosion ‘hotspot’ lasting as briefly as one year. The highly dynamic and spatially diverse nature of erosion along Plum Island provides insight into the complex nature of coupled inlet-beach dynamics over multiple timescales. 
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                            Impact of Hurricane Maria on Beach Erosion in Puerto Rico: Remote Sensing and Causal Inference
                        
                    
    
            Abstract Beach erosion due to large storms critically affects coastal vulnerability, but is challenging to monitor and quantify. Attributing erosion to a specific storm requires a reliable counterfactual scenario: hypothetical beach conditions, absent the storm. Calibrating models to construct counterfactuals requires numerous observations that are rarely available. Storm paths are unpredictable, making long‐term instrumentation of specific beaches costly. Optical remote sensing is hampered by persistent cloud cover. We use Sentinel‐1 satellite radar imagery to monitor shoreline changes through clouds and propose regression discontinuity as a strategy to estimate the causal effect of large storms on beach erosion. Applied to 75 beaches across Puerto Rico, the approach detects shoreline changes with a root‐mean‐square error comparable to the resolution of the imagery. Hurricane Maria caused an erosion of 3 to 5 m along its path, up to 40 m at particular beaches. Results reveal strong local disparities that are consistent with simulated nearshore hydrodynamic conditions. 
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                            - Award ID(s):
- 1824951
- PAR ID:
- 10452531
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 47
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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