One of the most consequential unknowns of the COVID‐19 pandemic is the frequency at which vaccine boosting provides sufficient protection from infection. We quantified the statistical likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following different boosting schedules with messenger RNA (mRNA)‐1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer‐BioNTech). We integrated anti‐Spike IgG antibody optical densities with profiles of the waning of antibodies and corresponding probabilities of infection associated with coronavirus endemic transmission. Projecting antibody levels over time given boosting every 6 months, 1, 1.5, 2, or 3 years yielded respective probabilities of fending off infection over a 6‐year span of >93%, 75%, 55%, 40%, and 24% (mRNA‐1273) and >89%, 69%, 49%, 36%, and 23% (BNT162b2). Delaying the administration of updated boosters has bleak repercussions. It increases the probability of individual infection by SARS‐CoV‐2, and correspondingly, ongoing disease spread, prevalence, morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality. Instituting regular, population‐wide booster vaccination updated to predominant variants has the potential to substantially forestall—and with global, widespread uptake, eliminate—COVID‐19.
Infection with alternate frequencies of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine boosting for patients undergoing antineoplastic cancer treatments
Patients undergoing antineoplastic therapies often exhibit reduced immune response to COVID-19 vaccination, necessitating assessment of alternate booster vaccination frequencies. However, data on reinfection risks to guide clinical decision making are limited. Here, we quantified reinfection risks for patients undergoing distinct antineoplastic therapies, given alternative frequencies of boosting with Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2. Integrating antibody data following vaccination with long-term antibody data from other coronaviruses in an evolutionary framework, we estimated infection probabilities based on antibody levels and calculated cumulative probabilities of breakthrough infection for alternate booster schedules over 2 years. Annual boosting reduced risks for targeted or hormonal treatments, immunotherapy, and chemotherapy-immunotherapy combinations similarly to the general population. Patients receiving no treatment or chemotherapy exhibited higher risks, suggesting that accelerated vaccination schedules should be considered. Patients treated with rituximab therapy presented the highest infection risk, suggesting that a combination of frequent boosting and additional interventions may be warranted for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 infection.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10452710
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute
- ISSN:
- 0027-8874
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
One of the most consequential unknowns of the COVID-19 pandemic is the frequency at which vaccine boosting provides sufficient protection from infection. We quantified the statistical likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following different boosting schedules with messenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). We integrated anti-Spike IgG antibody optical densities with profiles of the waning of antibodies and corresponding probabilities of infection associated with coronavirus endemic transmission. Projecting antibody levels over time given boosting every 6 months, 1, 1.5, 2, or 3 years yielded respective probabilities of fending off infection over a 6-year span of >93%, 75%, 55%, 40%, and 24% (mRNA-1273) and >89%, 69%, 49%, 36%, and 23% (BNT162b2). Delaying the administration of updated boosters has bleak repercussions. It increases the probability of individual infection by SARS-CoV-2, and correspondingly, ongoing disease spread, prevalence, morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality. Instituting regular, population-wide booster vaccination updated to predominant variants has the potential to substantially forestall-and with global, widespread uptake, eliminate-COVID-19.more » « less
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Background: Among the most consequential unknowns of the devastating COVID-19 pandemic are the durability of immunity and time to likely reinfection. There are limited direct data on SARS-CoV-2 long-term immune responses and reinfection. The aim of this study is to use data on the durability of immunity among evolutionarily close coronavirus relatives of SARS-CoV-2 to estimate times to reinfection by a comparative evolutionary analysis of related viruses SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, human coronavirus (HCoV)-229E, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-NL63. Methods: We conducted phylogenetic analyses of the S, M, and ORF1b genes to reconstruct a maximum-likelihood molecular phylogeny of human-infecting coronaviruses. This phylogeny enabled comparative analyses of peak-normalised nucleocapsid protein, spike protein, and whole-virus lysate IgG antibody optical density levels, in conjunction with reinfection data on endemic human-infecting coronaviruses. We performed ancestral and descendent states analyses to estimate the expected declines in antibody levels over time, the probabilities of reinfection based on antibody level, and the anticipated times to reinfection after recovery under conditions of endemic transmission for SARS-CoV-2, as well as the other human-infecting coronaviruses. Findings: We obtained antibody optical density data for six human-infecting coronaviruses, extending from 128 days to 28 years after infection between 1984 and 2020. These data provided a means to estimate profiles of the typical antibody decline and probabilities of reinfection over time under endemic conditions. Reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur between 3 months and 5·1 years after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. This protection is less than half the duration revealed for the endemic coronaviruses circulating among humans (5-95% quantiles 15 months to 10 years for HCoV-OC43, 31 months to 12 years for HCoV-NL63, and 16 months to 12 years for HCoV-229E). For SARS-CoV, the 5-95% quantiles were 4 months to 6 years, whereas the 95% quantiles for MERS-CoV were inconsistent by dataset. Interpretation: The timeframe for reinfection is fundamental to numerous aspects of public health decision making. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, reinfection is likely to become increasingly common. Maintaining public health measures that curb transmission-including among individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2-coupled with persistent efforts to accelerate vaccination worldwide is critical to the prevention of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Funding: US National Science Foundation.more » « less
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