Boreal forest and tundra biomes are key components of the Earth system because the mobilization of large carbon stocks and changes in energy balance could act as positive feedbacks to ongoing climate change. In Alaska, wildfire is a primary driver of ecosystem structure and function, and a key mechanism coupling high‐latitude ecosystems to global climate. Paleoecological records reveal sensitivity of fire regimes to climatic and vegetation change over centennial–millennial time scales, highlighting increased burning concurrent with warming or elevated landscape flammability. To quantify spatiotemporal patterns in fire‐regime variability, we synthesized 27 published sediment‐charcoal records from four Alaskan ecoregions, and compared patterns to paleoclimate and paleovegetation records. Biomass burning and fire frequency increased significantly in boreal forest ecoregions with the expansion of black spruce, ca. 6,000–4,000 years before present (yr BP). Biomass burning also increased during warm periods, particularly in the Yukon Flats ecoregion from ca. 1,000 to 500 yr BP. Increases in biomass burning concurrent with constant fire return intervals suggest increases in average fire severity (i.e., more biomass burning per fire) during warm periods. Results also indicate increases in biomass burning over the last century across much of Alaska that exceed Holocene maxima, providing important context for ongoing change. Our analysis documents the sensitivity of fire activity to broad‐scale environmental change, including climate warming and biome‐scale shifts in vegetation. The lack of widespread, prolonged fire synchrony suggests regional heterogeneity limited simultaneous fire‐regime change across our study areas during the Holocene. This finding implies broad‐scale resilience of the boreal forest to extensive fire activity, but does not preclude novel responses to 21st‐century changes. If projected increases in fire activity over the 21st century are realized, they would be unprecedented in the context of the last 8,000 yr or more.
Climate change and natural disturbances are catalysing forest transitions to different vegetation types, but whether these new communities are resilient alternate states that will persist for decades to centuries is not known. Here, we test how changing climate, disturbance and biotic interactions shape the long‐term fate of a deciduous broadleaf forest type that replaces black spruce after severe wildfires in interior Alaska, USA. We simulated postfire deciduous forest that replaced black spruce after severe fires in 2004 for tens to hundreds of years under different climate scenarios (contemporary, mid 21st century, late 21st century), fire return intervals (11–250 years), distances to seed source (50–1,000 m) and browsing intensities (background, moderate, chronic). We identified combinations of conditions where deciduous forest remained the dominant vegetation type and combinations where it returned to black spruce forest, transitioned to mixed forest (where deciduous species and black spruce co‐dominate) or converted to nonforest. Deciduous forest persisted in 86% of simulations and was most resilient if fire return intervals were short (≤50 years). When transitions to another vegetation type occurred, mixed forest was most common, particularly when fire return intervals were long (>50 years) and the nearest seed source was 500 m or farther. Moderate and chronic browsing also reduced deciduous sapling growth and survival, helping black spruce compete if fire return intervals were long and seed source was distant. Dry soils occasionally caused conversion to nonforest following short‐interval fire when simulations were forced with a late 21st‐century climate scenario that projects warming and increased vapor pressure deficit. Return to black spruce forest almost never occurred.
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10452879
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Ecology
- Volume:
- 109
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0022-0477
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 85-98
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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