The onset of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) deep convection often occurs over the western Indian Ocean and has upper-tropospheric circulation precursors that consist of eastward-circumnavigating tropical easterlies and subtropical cyclonic Rossby gyres near eastern Africa. Moreover, the evolution of the large-scale circulation and its ability to reduce subsidence may be necessary for the initial development of organized deep convection. To better understand the evolution of the circulation precursors and their interaction with convective onset, this paper analyzes the upper-tropospheric zonal momentum budget using a regional index based on the temporal progression of the meridional structure of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies over eastern Africa and the western Indian Ocean. The circumnavigating intraseasonal easterly acceleration produces upper-level divergence when it reaches the western extent of a region of intraseasonal westerlies and may provide a forcing for the in-phase midtropospheric upward vertical motion. For about three-quarters of the identified cases, the easterly acceleration over the western Indian Ocean is a response to the zonal pressure gradient over the region. In the composite, the negative pressure gradient force may be initially induced by the injection of negative geopotential height anomalies from the extratropics of both hemispheres to the tropics over eastern Africa, though tropically circumnavigating and local signals may also contribute to the easterly acceleration, especially in the days following convective onset.
Prior to the onset of convection over the western Indian Ocean for many Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, equatorward‐propagating upper tropospheric negative geopotential height anomalies are observed along the east coast of Africa. To identify these signals independently from the MJO, we calculate partial meridional‐temporal wavelet transforms averaged between 35 and 45°E and centred in the subtropics. During times when the amplitudes of MJO indices are strong and leading up to convective onset over the western Indian Ocean, increased wavelet power relative to the mean state is observed in the equatorward direction at intraseasonal time‐scales from both hemispheres. Regressions against groups of equatorward intraseasonal wavelet transform time series centred on negative anomalies in the subtropics show extratropical Rossby wave trains extending to the west across the Atlantic similar to signals previously observed leading up to the onset of Indian basin convection in composite MJO events. Compared to globally averaged mean‐state power spectra in the subtropics, increased equatorward propagation of upper tropospheric geopotential height anomalies occurs regionally near eastern Africa on intraseasonal time‐scales, which suggests that local mean‐state conditions, in addition to the MJO, may influence meridional wave propagation. Since these anomalies may in turn influence the onset of MJO convection over the western Indian Ocean and have higher local power, mean‐state conditions near the subtropics of eastern Africa may change the timing of the MJO.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10457067
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- Volume:
- 146
- Issue:
- 726
- ISSN:
- 0035-9009
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 380-400
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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