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1. Regimes of Convective Self-Aggregation in Convection-Permitting Beta-Plane Simulations

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-22-0222.1  

   Carstens, Jacob D. ; Wing, Allison A. ( September 2023 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   The spontaneous self-aggregation (SA) of convection in idealized model experiments highlights the importance of interactions between tropical convection and the surrounding environment. The authors have shown that SA fundamentally changes with the background rotation in previousf-plane simulations, in terms of both the resulting forms of organized convection and the relative roles of the physical feedbacks driving them. This study considers the dependence of SA on rotation in one large domain on theβplane, introducing an additional layer of complexity. Simulations are performed with uniform thermal forcing and explicit convection. Focuses include statistical and structural analysis of the convective modes, process-oriented diagnostics of how they develop, and resulting mean states. Two regimes of SA emerge within the first 15 days, separated by a critical zone wherefis analogous to 10°–15° latitude. Organized convection at near-equatorial values offprimarily consists of convectively coupled Kelvin waves. Wind speed–surface enthalpy flux feedbacks are the dominant process driving moisture variability early on, then clear-sky shortwave radiative feedbacks are strongest in wave maintenance. In contrast, at higherf, numerous tropical cyclones develop and coexist, dominated by surface flux and longwave processes. Tropical cyclogenesis is most pronounced at intermediatef(analogous to 25°–40°), but are longer-lived at higherf. The resulting modes of SA at lowfdiffer between theseβ-plane simulations (convectively coupled waves) and priorf-plane simulations (weak tropical cyclones or nonrotating clusters). Otherwise, these results provide further evidence for the changing roles of radiative, surface flux, and advective processes in influencing SA asfchanges, as found in our previous study.

   In model simulations, convection often self-organizes due to interactions with its surrounding environment. These interactions are relevant in the real-world organization of rainfall and clouds, and may thus be useful to understand for improved prediction of tropical weather and climate. Previous work using a set of simple model experiments with constant Coriolis force showed that at different latitudes, different processes dominate, and different types of organized convection result. This study verifies that finding using a more complex and realistic model, where the Coriolis force varies within the domain to resemble different latitudes. Specifically, the convection here self-organizes into atmospheric waves (periodic disturbances) at low latitudes, and tropical cyclones at high latitudes.

    

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2. The Role of Multiscale Interaction in Tropical Cyclogenesis and Its Predictability in Near-Global Aquaplanet Cloud-Resolving Simulations

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0021.1  

   Narenpitak, Pornampai ; Bretherton, Christopher S. ; Khairoutdinov, Marat F. ( August 2020 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) is a multiscale process that involves interactions between large-scale circulation and small-scale convection. A near-global aquaplanet cloud-resolving model (NGAqua) with 4-km horizontal grid spacing that produces tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to investigate TCG and its predictability. This study analyzes an ensemble of three 20-day NGAqua simulations, with initial white-noise perturbations of low-level humidity. TCs develop spontaneously from the northern edge of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), where large-scale flows and tropical convection provide necessary conditions for barotropic instability. Zonal bands of positive low-level absolute vorticity organize into cyclonic vortices, some of which develop into TCs. A new algorithm is developed to track the cyclonic vortices. A vortex-following framework analysis of the low-level vorticity budget shows that vertical stretching of absolute vorticity due to convective heating contributes positively to the vorticity spinup of the TCs. A case study and composite analyses suggest that sufficient humidity is key for convective development. TCG in these three NGAqua simulations undergoes the same series of interactions. The locations of cyclonic vortices are broadly predetermined by planetary-scale circulation and humidity patterns associated with ITCZ breakdown, which are predictable up to 10 days. Whether and when the cyclonic vortices become TCs depend on the somewhat more random feedback between convection and vorticity. 

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3. Mesoscale Processes during the Genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010)

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0161.1  

   Bell, Michael M. ; Montgomery, Michael T. ( July 2019 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   Observations from the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT), Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP), and Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) field campaigns are analyzed to investigate the mesoscale processes leading to the tropical cyclogenesis of Hurricane Karl (2010). Research aircraft missions provided Doppler radar, in situ flight level, and dropsonde data documenting the structural changes of the predepression disturbance. Following the pre-Karl wave pouch, variational analyses at the meso-β and meso-α scales suggest that the convective cycle in Karl alternately built the low- and midlevel circulations leading to genesis episodically rather than through a sustained lowering of the convective mass flux from increased stabilization. Convective bursts that erupt in the vorticity-rich environment of the recirculating pouch region enhance the low-level meso-β- and meso-α-scale circulation through vortex stretching. As the convection wanes, the resulting stratiform precipitation strengthens the midlevel circulation through convergence associated with ice microphysical processes, protecting the disturbance from the intrusion of dry environmental air. Once the column saturation fraction returns to a critical value, a subsequent convective burst below the midlevel circulation further enhances the low-level circulation, and the convective cycle repeats. The analyses suggest that the onset of deep convection and associated low-level spinup were closely related to the coupling of the vorticity and moisture fields at low and midlevels. Our interpretation of the observational analysis presented in this study reaffirms a primary role of deep convection in the genesis process and provides a hypothesis for the supporting role of stratiform precipitation and the midlevel vortex.

    

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4. Evolution of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Structures before and during Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones: Sensitivity to Vertical Wind Shear

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0173.1  

   Tao, Dandan ; Zhang, Fuqing ( April 2019 , Monthly Weather Review)

   This study explores the spatial and temporal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) thermodynamic and dynamic structures before, near, and during rapid intensification (RI) under different vertical wind shear conditions through four sets of convection-permitting ensemble simulations. A composite analysis of TC structural evolution is performed by matching the RI onset time of each member. Without background flow, the axisymmetric TC undergoes a gradual strengthening of the inner-core vorticity and warm core throughout the simulation. In the presence of moderate environmental shear (5–6 m s⁻¹), both the location and magnitude of the asymmetries in boundary layer radial flow, relative humidity, and vertical motion evolve with the tilt vector throughout the simulation. A budget analysis indicates that tilting is crucial to maintaining the midlevel vortex while stretching and vertical advection are responsible for the upper-level vorticity generation before RI when strong asymmetries arise. Two warm anomalies are observed before the RI onset when the vortex column is tilted. When approaching the RI onset, these two warm anomalies gradually merge into one. Overall, the most symmetric vortex structure is found near the RI onset. Moderately sheared TCs experience an adjustment period from a highly asymmetric structure with updrafts concentrated at the down-tilt side before RI to a more axisymmetric structure during RI as the eyewall updrafts develop. This adjustment period near the RI onset, however, is found to be the least active period for deep convection. TC development under a smaller environmental shear (2.5 m s⁻¹) condition displays an intermediate evolution between ensemble experiments with no background flow and with moderate shear (5–6 m s⁻¹).

    

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5. An idealized numerical study of tropical cyclogenesis and evolution at the Equator

   https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3701  

   Kilroy, Gerard ; Smith, Roger K. ; Montgomery, Michael T. ( January 2020 , Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society)

   Tropical cyclone formation and evolution at, or near, the Equator is explored using idealized three‐dimensional model simulations, starting from a prescribed, initial, weak counterclockwise rotating vortex in an otherwise quiescent,nonrotatingenvironment. Three simulations are carried out in which the maximum tangential wind speed (5 m s) is specified at an initial radius of 50, 100, or 150 km. After a period of gestation lasting between 30 and 60 hr, the vortices intensify rapidly, the evolution being similar to that for vortices away from the Equator. In particular, the larger the initial vortex size, the longer the gestation period, the larger the maximum intensity attained, and the longer the vortex lifetime. Beyond a few days, the vortices decay as the cyclonic vorticity source provided by the initial vortex is depleted and negative vorticity surrounding the vortex core is drawn inwards by the convectively driven overturning circulation. In these negative vorticity regions, the flow is inertially/centrifugally unstable. The vortex evolution during the mature and decay phases differs from that in simulations away from the Equator, where inertially unstable regions are much more limited in area. Vortex decay in the simulations appears to be related intimately to the development of inertial instability, which is accompanied by an outward‐propagating band of deep convection. The degree to which this band of deep convection is realistic is unknown.

    

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