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Abstract Over‐the‐Horizon communication is strongly dependent on the state of the ionosphere, which is susceptible to solar flares. Trans‐ionospheric high frequency (HF, 3–30 MHz) signals can experience strong attenuation following a solar flare that lasts typically for an hour, commonly referred to as shortwave fadeout (SWF). In this study, we examine the role of dispersion relation and collision frequency formulations on the estimation of SWF in riometer observations using a new physics‐based model framework. The new framework first uses modified solar irradiance models incorporating high‐resolution solar flux data from the GOES satellite X‐ray sensors as input to compute the enhanced ionization produced during a flare event. The framework then uses different dispersion relation and collision frequency formulations to estimate the enhanced HF absorption. The modeled HF absorption is compared with riometer data to determine which formulation best reproduces the observations. We find the Appleton‐Hartree dispersion relation in combination with the averaged collision frequency profile reproduces riometer observations with an average skill score of 0.4, representing 40% better forecast ability than the existing D‐region Absorption Prediction model. Our modeling results also indicate that electron temperature plays an important role in controlling HF absorption. We suggest that adoption of the Appleton‐Hartree dispersion relation in combination with the averaged collision frequency be considered for improved forecasting of ionospheric absorption following solar flares.
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High‐Frequency Communications Response to Solar Activity in September 2017 as Observed by Amateur Radio Networks
Abstract Numerous solar flares and coronal mass ejection‐induced interplanetary shocks associated with solar active region AR12673 caused disturbances to terrestrial high‐frequency (HF, 3–30 MHz) radio communications from 4–14 September 2017. Simultaneously, Hurricanes Irma and Jose caused significant damage to the Caribbean Islands and parts of Florida. The coincidental timing of both the space weather activity and hurricanes was unfortunate, as HF radio was needed for emergency communications. This paper presents the response of HF amateur radio propagation as observed by the Reverse Beacon Network and the Weak Signal Propagation Reporting Network to the space weather events of that period. Distributed data coverage from these dense sources provided a unique mix of global and regional coverage of ionospheric response and recovery that revealed several features of storm time HF propagation dynamics. X‐class flares on 6, 7, and 10 September caused acute radio blackouts during the day in the Caribbean with recovery times of tens of minutes to hours, based on the decay time of the flare. A severe geomagnetic storm withKpmax = 8+ and SYM‐Hmin = −146 nT occurring 7–10 September wiped out ionospheric communications first on 14 MHz and then on 7 MHz starting at ∼1200 UT 8 September. This storm, combined with affects from additional flare and geomagnetic activity, contributed to a significant suppression of effective HF propagation bands both globally and in the Caribbean for a period of 12 to 15 days.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1932972
- PAR ID:
- 10460829
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 118-132
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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