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Abstract Increasing temperatures during climate change are known to alter the phenology across diverse plant taxa, but the evolutionary outcomes of these shifts are poorly understood. Moreover, plant temperature‐sensing pathways are known to interact with competition‐sensing pathways, yet there remains little experimental evidence for how genotypes varying in temperature responsiveness react to warming in realistic competitive settings.We compared flowering time and fitness responses to warming and competition for two near‐isogenic lines (NILs) ofArabidopsis thalianatransgressively segregating temperature‐sensitive and temperature‐insensitive alleles for major‐effect flowering time genes. We grew focal plants of each genotype in intraspecific and interspecific competition in four treatments contrasting daily temperature profiles in summer and fall under contemporary and warmed conditions. We measured phenology and fitness of focal plants to quantify plastic responses to season, temperature and competition and the dependence of these responses on flowering time genotype.The temperature‐insensitive NIL was constitutively early flowering and less fit, except in a future‐summer climate in which its fitness was higher than the later flowering, temperature‐sensitive NIL in low competition. The late‐flowering NIL showed accelerated flowering in response to intragenotypic competition and to increased temperature in the summer but delayed flowering in the fall. However, its fitness fell with rising temperatures in both seasons, and in the fall its marginal fitness gain from decreasing competition was diminished in the future.Functional alleles at temperature‐responsive genes were necessary for plastic responses to season, warming and competition. However, the plastic genotype was not the most fit in every experimental condition, becoming less fit than the temperature‐canalized genotype in the warm summer treatment.Climate change is often predicted to have deleterious effects on plant populations, and our results show how increased temperatures can act through genotype‐dependent phenology to decrease fitness. Furthermore, plasticity is not necessarily adaptive in rapidly changing environments since a nonplastic genotype proved fitter than a plastic genotype in a warming climate treatment. Aplain language summaryis available for this article.
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Warming undermines emergence success in a threatened alpine stonefly: A multi‐trait perspective on vulnerability to climate change
Abstract Vulnerability to warming is often assessed using short‐term metrics such as the critical thermal maximum (CTMAX), which represents an organism's ability to survive extreme heat. However, the long‐term effects of sub‐lethal warming are an essential link to fitness in the wild, and these effects are not adequately captured by metrics like CTMAX.The meltwater stonefly,Lednia tumana, is endemic to high‐elevation streams of Glacier National Park, MT, USA, and has long been considered acutely vulnerable to climate‐change‐associated stream warming. As a result, in 2019, it was listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. This presumed vulnerability to warming was challenged by a recent study showing that nymphs can withstand short‐term exposure to temperatures as high as ~27°C. But whether they also tolerate exposure to chronic, long‐term warming remained unclear.By measuring fitness‐related traits at several ecologically relevant temperatures over several weeks, we show thatL. tumanacannot complete its life‐cycle at temperatures only a few degrees above what some populations currently experience.The temperature at which growth rate was maximized appears to have a detrimental impact on other key traits (survival, emergence success and wing development), thus extending our understanding ofL. tumana's vulnerability to climate change.Our results call into question the use of CTMAXas a sole metric of thermal sensitivity for a species, while highlighting the power and complexity of multi‐trait approaches to assessing vulnerability. Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2109873
- PAR ID:
- 10470142
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Functional Ecology
- Volume:
- 37
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0269-8463
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 1033-1043
- Size(s):
- p. 1033-1043
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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