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1. Relation between Baroclinity, Horizontal Vorticity, and Mesocyclone Evolution in the 6–7 April 2018 Monroe, Louisiana, Tornadic Supercell during VORTEX-SE

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0313.1  

   Hosek, Michael J. ; Ziegler, Conrad L. ; Biggerstaff, Michael I. ; Murphy, Todd A. ; Wang, Zhien ( November 2023 , Monthly Weather Review)

   This case study analyzes a tornadic supercell observed in northeast Louisiana as part of the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment Southeast (VORTEX-SE) on 6–7 April 2018. One mobile research radar (SR1-P), one WSR-88D equivalent (KULM), and two airborne radars (TAFT and TFOR) have sampled the storm at close proximity for ∼70 min through its mature phase, tornadogenesis at 2340 UTC, and dissipation and subsequent ingestion into a developing MCS segment. The 4D wind field and reflectivity from up to four Doppler analyses, combined with 4D diabatic Lagrangian analysis (DLA) retrievals, has enabled kinematic and thermodynamic analysis of storm-scale boundaries leading up to, during, and after the dissipation of the NWS-surveyed EF0 tornado. The kinematic and thermodynamic analyses reveal a transient current of low-level streamwise vorticity leading into the low-level supercell updraft, appearing similar to the streamwise vorticity current (SVC) that has been identified in supercell simulations and previously observed only kinematically. Vorticity dynamical calculations demonstrate that both baroclinity and horizontal stretching play significant roles in the generation and amplification of streamwise vorticity associated with this SVC. While the SVC does not directly feed streamwise vorticity to the tornado–cyclone, its development coincides with tornadogenesis and an intensification of the supercell’s main low-level updraft, although a causal relationship is unclear. Although the mesoscale environment is not high-shear/low-CAPE (HSLC), the updraft of the analyzed supercell shares some similarities to past observations and simulations of HSLC storms in the Southeast United States, most notably a pulse-like updraft that is maximized in the low- to midlevels of the storm.

   The purpose of this study is to analyze the airflow and thermodynamics of a highly observed tornado-producing supercell. While computer simulations can provide us with highly detailed looks at the complicated evolution of supercells, it is rare, due to the difficulty of data collection, to collect enough data to perform a highly detailed analysis on a particular supercell, especially in the Southeast United States. We identified a “current” of vorticity—rotating wind—that develops at the intersection of the supercell’s rain-cooled outflow and warm inflow, similar to previous simulations. This vorticity current develops and feeds the storm’s updraft as its tornado develops and the storm intensifies, although it does not directly enter the tornado.

    

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2. Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-Scale Environments

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0248.1  

   Veloso-Aguila, Daniel ; Rasmussen, Kristen L. ; Maloney, Eric D. ( January 2024 , Monthly Weather Review)

   A multiscale analysis of the environment supporting tornadoes in southeast South America (SESA) was conducted based on a self-constructed database of 74 reports. Composites of environmental and convective parameters from ERA5 were generated relative to tornado events. The distribution of the reported tornadoes maximizes over the Argentine plains, while events are rare close to the Andes and south of Sierras de Córdoba. Events are relatively common in all seasons except in winter. Proximity environment evolution shows enhanced instability, deep-layer vertical wind shear, storm-relative helicity, reduced convective inhibition, and a lowered lifting condensation level before or during the development of tornadic storms in SESA. No consistent signal in low-level wind shear is seen during tornado occurrence. However, a curved hodograph with counterclockwise rotation is present. The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is also maximized prior to tornadogenesis, most strongly associated with enhanced CAPE. Differences in the convective environment between tornadoes in SESA and the U.S. Great Plains are discussed. On the synoptic scale, tornado events are associated with a strong anomalous trough crossing the southern Andes that triggers lee cyclogenesis, subsequently enhancing the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) that increases moisture advection to support deep convection. This synoptic trough also enhances vertical shear that, along with enhanced instability, sustains organized convection capable of producing tornadic storms. At planetary scales, the tornadic environment is modulated by Rossby wave trains that appear to be forced by convection near northern Australia. Madden–Julian oscillation phase 3 preferentially occurs 1–2 weeks ahead of tornado occurrence.

   The main goal of this study is to describe what atmospheric conditions (from local to global scales) are present prior to and during tornadic storms impacting southeast South America (SESA). Increasing potential for deep convection, wind shear, and potential for rotating updrafts, as well as reducing convective inhibition and cloud-base height, are predominant a few hours before and during the events in connection to low-level northerly winds enhancing moisture transport to the region. Remote convective activity near northern Australia appears to influence large-scale atmospheric circulation that subsequently triggers convective storms supporting tornadogenesis 1–2 weeks later in SESA. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for atmospheric processes occurring at different scales to understand and predict tornado occurrences.

    

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3. A New Pathway for Tornadogenesis Exposed by Numerical Simulations of Supercells in Turbulent Environments

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-23-0161.1  

   Markowski, Paul M. ( March 2024 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   A simulation of a supercell storm produced for a prior study on tornado predictability is reanalyzed for the purpose of examining the fine-scale details of tornadogenesis. It is found that the formation of a tornado-like vortex in the simulation differs from how such vortices have been understood to form in previous numerical simulations. The main difference between the present simulation and past ones is the inclusion of a turbulent boundary layer in the storm’s environment in the present case, whereas prior simulations have used a laminar boundary layer. The turbulent environment contains significant near-surface vertical vorticity (ζ> 0.03 s⁻¹atz= 7.5 m), organized in the form of longitudinal streaks aligned with the southerly ground-relative winds. Theζstreaks are associated with corrugations in the vertical plane in the predominantly horizontal, westward-pointing environmental vortex lines; the vortex-line corrugations are produced by the vertical drafts associated with coherent turbulent structures aligned with the aforementioned southerly ground-relative winds (longitudinal coherent structures in the surface layer such as these are well known to the boundary layer and turbulence communities). Theζstreaks serve as focal points for tornadogenesis, and may actually facilitate tornadogenesis, given how near-surfaceζin the environment can rapidly amplify when subjected to the strong, persistent convergence beneath a supercell updraft.

   In high-resolution computer simulations of supercell storms that include a more realistic, turbulent environment, the means by which tornado-like vortices form differs from the mechanism identified in prior simulations using a less realistic, laminar environment. One possibility is that prior simulations develop intense vortices for the wrong reasons. Another possibility could be that tornadoes form in a wide range of ways in the real atmosphere, even within supercell storms that appear to be similar, and increasingly realistic computer simulations are finally now capturing that diversity.

    

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4. Processes Preventing the Development of a Significant Tornado in a Colorado Supercell on 26 May 2010

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0288.1  

   Murdzek, Shawn S. ; Markowski, Paul M. ; Richardson, Yvette P. ; Tanamachi, Robin L. ( May 2020 , Monthly Weather Review)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract A supercell produced a nearly tornadic vortex during an intercept by the Second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment on 26 May 2010. Using observations from two mobile radars performing dual-Doppler scans, a five-probe mobile mesonet, and a proximity sounding, factors that prevented this vortex from strengthening into a significant tornado are examined. Mobile mesonet observations indicate that portions of the supercell outflow possessed excessive negative buoyancy, likely owing in part to low boundary layer relative humidity, as indicated by a high environmental lifted condensation level. Comparisons to a tornadic supercell suggest that the Prospect Valley storm had enough far-field circulation to produce a significant tornado, but was unable to converge this circulation to a sufficiently small radius. Trajectories suggest that the weak convergence might be due to the low-level mesocyclone ingesting parcels with considerable crosswise vorticity from the near-storm environment, which has been found to contribute to less steady and weaker low-level updrafts in supercell simulations. Yet another factor that likely contributed to the weak low-level circulation was the inability of parcels rich in streamwise vorticity from the forward-flank precipitation region to reach the low-level mesocyclone, likely owing to an unfavorable pressure gradient force field. In light of these results, we suggest that future research should continue focusing on the role of internal, storm-scale processes in tornadogenesis, especially in marginal environments. 

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5. Three-Dimensional Thermodynamic Observations in Supercell Thunderstorms from Swarms of Balloon-Borne Sondes

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0122.1  

   Bartos, Elissa A. ; Markowski, Paul M. ; Richardson, Yvette P. ( July 2022 , Monthly Weather Review)

   This study analyzes aboveground thermodynamic observations in three tornadic supercells obtained via swarms of small balloon-borne sondes acting aspseudo-Lagrangiandrifters; the storm-relative winds draw the sondes through the precipitation, outflow, and baroclinic zones, which are believed to play key roles in tornado formation. Three-dimensional thermodynamic analyses are produced from the in situ observations. The coldest air is found at the lowest analysis levels, where virtual potential temperature deficits of 2–5 K are observed. Air parcels within the forward-flank outflow are inferred from their equivalent potential temperatures to have descended only a few hundred meters or less, whereas parcels within the rear-flank outflow are inferred to have downward excursions of 1–2 km. Additionally, the parcels following paths toward the low-level mesocyclone pass through horizontal buoyancy gradients that are strongest in the lowest 750 m and estimated to be capable of baroclinically generating horizontal vorticity having a magnitude of 6–10 × 10⁻³s⁻¹. A substantial component of the baroclinically generated vorticity is initially crosswise, though the vorticity subsequently could become streamwise given the leftward bending of the airstream in which the vorticity is generated. The baroclinically generated vorticity could contribute to tornado formation upon being tilted upward and stretched near the surface beneath a strong, dynamically forced updraft.

   Swarms of balloon-borne probes are used to produce the first-ever, three-dimensional mappings of temperature from in situ observations within supercell storms (rotating storms with high tornado potential). Temperature has a strong influence on the buoyancy of air, and horizontal variations of buoyancy generate spin about a horizontal axis. Buoyancy is one of the primary drivers of upward and downward motions in thunderstorms, and in supercell storms, horizontally oriented spin can be tipped into the vertical and amplified by certain arrangements of upward and downward motions. Unfortunately, the long-standing lack of temperature observations has hampered scientists’ ability to evaluate computer simulations and the tornadogenesis theories derived from them. We find that significant spin could be generated by the horizontal buoyancy variations sampled by the probes.

    

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