Models of long-term product innovation depict the trajectory of products through an evolutionary selection metaphor in which product designs converge toward a dominant design. The product innovation literature favors trajectory descriptions based on the physical manifestations of products while neglecting to account for solution principles. This paper offers a new way to explain the life-cycle of product innovation through the identification of motifs that describe the functions of a product. Functional motifs are recurrent function blocks across multiple generations of designs for a product. A collection of functional motifs defines the functional architecture of the product. Using some key examples from innovations in sewing machines, the paper illustrates the occurrence of motifs as the basis for detecting the emergence of a dominant design. Patents related to the sewing machine over 177 years are analyzed to identify functional motifs characterizing the evolution and convergence toward a dominant design. Results show that motifs do not change over long periods once a dominant design emerges even though components continue to change. This observation confirms a view of dominant designs as a technological frame but refutes the notion that design no longer matters in the era of incremental change. These motifs refine our understanding of how designs evolve along a particular path over the course of product innovation.
This content will become publicly available on March 1, 2025
Models of long-term product innovation depict the trajectory of products through an evolutionary selection metaphor in which product designs converge toward a dominant design. The product innovation literature favors trajectory descriptions based on the physical architecture of products while neglecting to account for the functional architecture. This paper offers a new way to explain the life cycle of product innovation by identifying motifs that describe a product’s functions. Functional motifs are recurrent function blocks across multiple generations of designs for a product. A collection of functional motifs defines the functional architecture of the product. Using some key examples from innovations in sewing machines, the paper illustrates the occurrence of motifs as the basis for detecting the emergence of a dominant design. Patents related to the sewing machine over 177 years are analyzed to identify functional motifs characterizing the evolution and convergence toward a dominant design. Results show that motifs do not change over long periods once a dominant design emerges, even though components continue to change. This observation confirms a view of dominant designs as a technological frame but refutes the notion that design no longer matters in the era of incremental change. These motifs refine our understanding of how designs evolve along a particular path over the course of product innovation.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2034448
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10478927
- Publisher / Repository:
- ASME
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Mechanical Design
- Volume:
- 146
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1050-0472
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract This paper applies a feminist critique of technology to develop a model for design trajectories, specifically the technology life cycle. The model aims to explain the origins of radical design changes even when scientific revolutions are absent (or distant) and radical performance improvements are inconsequential. The breast pump is introduced to illustrate how public health, social and cultural norms, federal policies, and identity influence a design trajectory. The breast pump’s delayed and limited evolution despite technology advances indicates the compounding consequences of these factors on a technology’s design trajectory. We then investigate the sewing machine (first patented in 1846) to explore this phenomenon more closely. Our research illustrates conditions under which a social norms lens might change the expected technological outcome predicted by purely economic or organizational models. By shifting the unit of analysis away from single designs to a trajectory of design cycles over time, this paper offers explanations for conditions under which designs will remain resistant to debiasing, with only minor incremental change, and the social dynamics associated with design discontinuities. Our model includes the social construct of gender norms as a socio-technological lens to examine the limitations of the traditional technology life cycle model. Finally, we discuss how our new model can update engineering design theory and pedagogy.
-
more » « less
Abstract The prevalence of coral bleaching due to thermal stress has been increasing on coral reefs worldwide. While many studies have documented how corals respond to warming, fewer have focused on benthic community responses over longer time periods or on the response of non-coral taxa (e.g., crustose coralline algae, macroalgae, or turf). Here, we quantify spatial and temporal changes in benthic community composition over a decade using image analysis of permanent photoquadrats on Palmyra Atoll in the central Pacific Ocean. Eighty permanent plots were photographed annually between 2009 and 2018 on both the wave-exposed fore reef (FR, 10 m depth,
n = 4 sites) and the wave-sheltered reef terrace (RT, 5 m depth,n = 4 sites) habitats. The El Niño events of 2009–2010 and 2015–2016 resulted in acute thermal stress and coral bleaching was observed at both reef habitats during these events. Across 10 yr and two bleaching events, the benthic community structure on Palmyra shows evidence of long-term stability. Communities on the RT exhibited minimal change in percent cover of the dominant functional groups, while the FR had greater variability and minor declines in hard coral cover. There was also spatial variation in the trajectory of each site through time. Coral cover decreased at some sites 1 yr following both bleaching events and was replaced by different algal groups depending on the site, yet returned to pre-bleaching levels within 2 yr. Overall, our data reveal the resilience of calcifier-dominated coral reef communities on Palmyra Atoll that have persisted over the last decade despite two bleaching events, demonstrating the capacity for these reefs to recover from and/or withstand disturbances in the absence of local stressors. -
more » « less
Abstract Degradation of wetland ecosystems results from loss of hydrologic connectivity, nutrient enrichment, and altered fire regimes, among other factors. It is uncertain how drivers of wetland ecosystem processes and wetland vegetation communities interact in reversing the ecological trajectory from degraded to restored conditions. We analyzed biogeochemical and vegetation data collected in wetlands of the Florida Everglades at the start of (2015) and during (2018 and 2021) the initial stages of rehydration. Our objectives were to analyze the allocation of carbon and nutrients among ecosystem compartments and correlated trajectories of vegetation community change following rehydration, to identify the drivers of change, including fire, and analyze macrophyte species‐specific responses to drivers. We expected to see changes in vegetation toward more hydric communities that would differ based on wetland baseline conditions and the magnitude of the hydrologic change. During the study period, both length of inundation and surface water depth increased throughout wetlands in the region, and four fires occurred, which affected 51% of the sampling locations. We observed biogeochemical shifts in the wetland landscape, driven by both hydrology and fire. Total phosphorus concentrations in soil and flocculent detrital material decreased, while soil carbon:phosphorus and nitrogen:phosphorus mass ratios increased at sites further away from water management infrastructure. Transitions in vegetation communities were driven by an increase in hydroperiods and by the distinct changes in nutrient concentrations or soil stoichiometric ratios in each subregion. The abundance of macrophyte species typical of short‐hydroperiod prairies strongly decreased, while dominant long‐hydroperiod species, such as
Eleocharis cellulosa , expanded. Fire facilitated the expansion of thickly vegetated plumes of invasiveTypha at sites close to the water inflow sources. Overall, restored hydrology shifted vegetation community composition toward higher abundance of long‐hydroperiod species within six years. In contrast, removal of invasive vegetation controlled by soil phosphorus concentrations will likely require long‐term and interactive restoration strategies. -
more » « less
With rapid innovation in the electronics industry, product obsolescence forecasting has become increasingly important. More accurate obsolescence forecasting would have cost reduction effects in product design and part procurement over a product’s lifetime. Currently many obsolescence forecasting methods require manual input or perform market analysis on a part by part basis; practices that are not feasible for large bill of materials. In response, this paper introduces an obsolescence forecasting framework that is capable of being scaled to meet industry needs while remaining highly accurate. The framework utilizes machine learning to classify parts as active, in production, or obsolete and discontinued. This classification and labeling of parts can be useful in the design stage in part selection and during inventory management with evaluating the chance that suppliers might stop production. A case study utilizing the proposed framework is presented to demonstrate and validate the improved accuracy of obsolescence risk forecasting. As shown, the framework correctly identified active and obsolete products with an accuracy as high as 98.3%.
