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Abstract The diurnal cycle of precipitation plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's water cycle, energy balance, and regional climate patterns. However, the diurnal precipitation across mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) and the factors influencing its spatial variations are not fully understood. In this study, we investigated diurnal precipitation patterns in summertime (June–August) from 2002 to 2005 over MSEA using ground‐based observations, satellite products, the global ERA5 reanalysis, and high‐resolution simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at 9‐ and 3‐km grid spacing forced by ERA5 hourly data on ∼0.25° grids. Various observation‐based data sets including GHCN‐Daily, Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), Asian Precipitation ‐ Highly‐Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), and Integrated Multi‐satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) were used. In evaluating daily precipitation over MSEA, MSWEP, and APHRODITE data sets show similar patterns in precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity, while IMERG tends to produce higher amounts but with less frequency. ERA5 overestimates light precipitation compared to the other data sets. The WRF simulations generally produce heavier but less frequent light precipitation, with the 3‐km simulation producing less intense precipitation than the 9‐km simulation. A k‐means classification of IMERG data revealed five distinct spatial regimes with varying diurnal precipitation cycles. The WRF simulations closely match these regimes, capturing key diurnal cycles missed by ERA5 over mountainous regions and coastlines. Additionally, convective activities and near‐surface winds influence these cycles, with WRF simulations better representing coastal and mountain precipitation patterns than ERA5. High‐resolution WRF simulations, especially the 3‐km simulation, capture diurnal precipitation more accurately than ERA5, highlighting the importance of employing convection‐permitting models to simulate precipitation diurnal cycles over complex terrain.
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Decomposing the Precipitation Response to Climate Change in Convection Allowing Simulations Over the Conterminous United States
Abstract Explicit representation of finer‐scale processes can affect the sign and magnitude of the precipitation response to climate change between convection‐permitting and convection‐parameterizing models. We compare precipitation across two 15‐year epochs, a historical (HIST) and an end‐of‐21st‐century (EoC85), between a set of dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations at 3.75 km grid spacing (WRF) and bias‐corrected Community Earth System Model (CESM) output used to initialize and force the lateral boundaries of the downscaled simulations. In the historical climate, the downscaled simulations demonstrate less overall error than CESM when compared to observations for most portions of the conterminous United States. Both sets of simulations overestimate the incidence of environments with moderate to high precipitable water while CESM generally simulates rainfall that is too frequent but less intense. Within both sets of simulations, EoC85 rainfall amounts decrease in low‐moisture environments due to reduced rainfall frequency and intensity while rainfall amounts increase in high‐moisture environments as they occur more often. Overall, reductions in rainfall are stronger in WRF than in CESM, particularly during the warm season. This reduced drying in CESM is attributed to relatively higher rainfall frequency in environments with high concentrations of precipitable water and weak vertical motion. As a result, an increase in the occurrence of high moisture environments in EoC85 naturally favors more rainfall in CESM than WRF. Our results present an in‐depth examination of the characteristics of changes in overall accumulated precipitation and highlight an extra dimension of uncertainty when comparing convection‐permitting models against convection‐parameterizing models.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1637225
- PAR ID:
- 10479193
- Publisher / Repository:
- AGU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth and Space Science
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2333-5084
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003094
