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1. Consumption Insurance against Wage Risk: Family Labor Supply and Optimal Progressive Income Taxation

   https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180125  

   Wu, Chunzan; Krueger, Dirk (January 2021, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics)

   null (Ed.)

   We show that a calibrated life cycle two-earner household model with endogenous labor supply can rationalize the extent of consumption insurance against shocks to male and female wages, as estimated empirically by Blundell, Pistaferri, and Saporta-Eksten (2016) in US data. In the model, 35 percent of male and 18 percent of female permanent wage shocks pass through to consumption, compared to the empirical estimates of 32 percent and 19 percent. Most of the consumption insurance against permanent male wage shocks is provided through the presence and labor supply response of the female earner. Abstracting from this private intrahousehold income insurance mechanism strongly biases upward the welfare losses from idiosyncratic wage risk as well as the desired extent of public insurance through progressive income taxation. Relative to the standard one-earner life cycle model, the optimal degree of tax progressivity is significantly lower and the welfare gains from implementing the optimal system are cut roughly in half. (JEL D15, H21, H24, J16, J22, J31) 

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2. Job Displacement Insurance and (the Lack of) Consumption-Smoothing

   https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190388  

   Gerard, François; Naritomi, Joana (March 2021, American Economic Review)

   null (Ed.)

   We study the spending profile of workers who experience both a positive transitory income shock (lump-sum severance pay) and a negative permanent income shock (layoff). Using de-identified expenditure and employment data from Brazil, we show that workers increase spending at layoff by 35 percent despite experiencing a 14 percent long-term loss. We find high sensitivity of spending to cash-on-hand across consumption categories and for several sources of variation, including predictable income drops. A model with present-biased workers can rationalize our findings, and highlights the importance of the timing of benefit disbursement for the consumption-smoothing gains of job displacement insurance policies. (JEL D12, G51, J65, J63, O12) 

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3. The interesting case of special and extraordinary items: What are they and how do they influence municipal government finances?

   https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12357  

   Ke, Laiyang; Jimenez, Benedict S (June 2024, Public Budgeting & Finance)

   One‐shot revenue shocks influence government budget decisions and service provision. However, how governments respond to transitory income remains a theoretical and empirical puzzle. The permanent income hypothesis posits that governments save windfalls to smooth expenditures, while other models predict spending increases. Empirical findings are inconclusive as the focus has been on revenues that are not truly transitory. The case of special and extraordinary gains allows us to investigate the effects of transitory resources. Taking advantage of the Governmental Accounting Standards Board's requirement that governments report such gains in their financial statements, this study examines the effects of gains on expenses for a sample of cities across 10 years. Using a staggered adoption event study design, we find that gains stimulate spending and that the size of gains matters before one observes the stimulatory effects. These results have substantial implications for budgetary transparency and fiscal sustainability in municipal governments. 

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4. Subsidy Allocations in the Presence of Income Shocks

   https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v34i05.6188  

   Abebe, Rediet; Kleinberg, Jon; Weinberg, S. Matthew (June 2020, Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence)

   null (Ed.)

   Poverty and economic hardship are understood to be highly complex and dynamic phenomena. Due to the multi-faceted nature of welfare, assistance programs targeted at alleviating hardship can face challenges, as they often rely on simpler welfare measurements, such as income or wealth, that fail to capture to full complexity of each family's state. Here, we explore one important dimension – susceptibility to income shocks. We introduce a model of welfare that incorporates income, wealth, and income shocks and analyze this model to show that it can vary, at times substantially, from measures of welfare that only use income or wealth. We then study the algorithmic problem of optimally allocating subsidies in the presence of income shocks. We consider two well-studied objectives: the first aims to minimize the expected number of agents that fall below a given welfare threshold (a min-sum objective) and the second aims to minimize the likelihood that the most vulnerable agent falls below this threshold (a min-max objective). We present optimal and near-optimal algorithms for various general settings. We close with a discussion on future directions on allocating societal resources and ethical implications of related approaches. 

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5. Old Age Risks, Consumption, and Insurance

   https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20220555  

   Blundell, Richard; Borella, Margherita; Commault, Jeanne; De_Nardi, Mariacristina (February 2024, American Economic Review)

   In the United States, after age 65, households face income and health risks, and a large fraction of these risks are transitory. While consumption significantly responds to transitory income shocks, out-of-pocket medical expenses do not. In contrast, both consumption and out-of-pocket medical expenses respond to transitory health shocks. Thus, most US elderly keep their out-of-pocket medical expenses close to a satiation point that varies with health. Consumption responds to health shocks mostly because adverse health shocks reduce the marginal utility of consumption. The effect of health on marginal utility changes the optimal transfers due to health shocks. (JEL D12, E21, G22, G51, I10, J14, J26) 

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