Back and forth transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) between humans and animals will establish wild reservoirs of virus that endanger long-term efforts to control COVID-19 in people and to protect vulnerable animal populations. Better targeting surveillance and laboratory experiments to validate zoonotic potential requires predicting high-risk host species. A major bottleneck to this effort is the few species with available sequences for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor, a key receptor required for viral cell entry. We overcome this bottleneck by combining species' ecological and biological traits with three-dimensional modelling of host-virus protein–protein interactions using machine learning. This approach enables predictions about the zoonotic capacity of SARS-CoV-2 for greater than 5000 mammals—an order of magnitude more species than previously possible. Our predictions are strongly corroborated by in vivo studies. The predicted zoonotic capacity and proximity to humans suggest enhanced transmission risk from several common mammals, and priority areas of geographic overlap between these species and global COVID-19 hotspots. With molecular data available for only a small fraction of potential animal hosts, linking data across biological scales offers a conceptual advance that may expand our predictive modelling capacity for zoonotic viruses with similarly unknown host ranges.
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The panzootic potential of SARS-CoV-2
Each year, SARS-CoV-2 is infecting an increasingly unprecedented number of species. In the present article, we combine mammalian phylogeny with the genetic characteristics of isolates found in mammals to elaborate on the host-range potential of SARS-CoV-2. Infections in nonhuman mammals mirror those of contemporary viral strains circulating in humans, although, in certain species, extensive viral circulation has led to unique genetic signatures. As in other recent studies, we found that the conservation of the ACE2 receptor cannot be considered the sole major determinant of susceptibility. However, we are able to identify major clades and families as candidates for increased surveillance. On the basis of our findings, we argue that the use of the term panzootic could be a more appropriate term than pandemic to describe the ongoing scenario. This term better captures the magnitude of the SARS-CoV-2 host range and would hopefully inspire inclusive policy actions, including systematic screenings, that could better support the management of this worldwide event.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10480749
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- BioScience
- Volume:
- 73
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 0006-3568
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 814-829
- Size(s):
- p. 814-829
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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