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Abstract We first explore a series of retrospective earthquake interactions in southern California. We find that the four Mw≥7 shocks in the past 150 yr brought the Ridgecrest fault ∼1 bar closer to failure. Examining the 34 hr time span between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 events, we calculate that the Mw 6.4 event brought the hypocentral region of the Mw 7.1 earthquake 0.7 bars closer to failure, with the Mw 7.1 event relieving most of the surrounding stress that was imparted by the first. We also find that the Mw 6.4 cross-fault aftershocks shut down when they fell under the stress shadow of the Mw 7.1. Together, the Ridgecrest mainshocks brought a 120 km long portion of the Garlock fault from 0.2 to 10 bars closer to failure. These results motivate our introduction of forecasts of future seismicity. Most attempts to forecast aftershocks use statistical decay models or Coulomb stress transfer. Statistical approaches require simplifying assumptions about the spatial distribution of aftershocks and their decay; Coulomb models make simplifying assumptions about the geometry of the surrounding faults, which we seek here to remove. We perform a rate–state implementation of the Coulomb stress change on focal mechanisms to capture fault complexity. After tuning the model through a learning period to improve its forecast ability, we make retrospective forecasts to assess model’s predictive ability. Our forecast for the next 12 months yields a 2.3% chance of an Mw≥7.5 Garlock fault rupture. If such a rupture occurred and reached within 45 km of the San Andreas, we calculate it would raise the probability of a San Andreas rupture on the Mojave section by a factor of 150. We therefore estimate the net chance of large San Andreas earthquake in the next 12 months to be 1.15%, or about three to five times its background probability.
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Major southern San Andreas earthquakes modulated by lake-filling events
Hydrologic loads can stimulate seismicity in the Earth’s crust1. However, evidence for the triggering of large earthquakes remains elusive. The southern San Andreas Fault (SSAF) in Southern California lies next to the Salton Sea2, a remnant of ancient Lake Cahuilla that periodically filled and desiccated over the past millennium3,4,5. Here we use new geologic and palaeoseismic data to demonstrate that the past six major earthquakes on the SSAF probably occurred during highstands of Lake Cahuilla5,6. To investigate possible causal relationships, we computed time-dependent Coulomb stress changes7,8 due to variations in the lake level. Using a fully coupled model of a poroelastic crust9,10,11 overlying a viscoelastic mantle12,13, we find that hydrologic loads increased Coulomb stress on the SSAF by several hundred kilopascals and fault-stressing rates by more than a factor of 2, which is probably sufficient for earthquake triggering7,8. The destabilizing effects of lake inundation are enhanced by a nonvertical fault dip14,15,16,17, the presence of a fault damage zone18,19 and lateral pore-pressure diffusion20,21. Our model may be applicable to other regions in which hydrologic loading, either natural8,22 or anthropogenic1,23, was associated with substantial seismicity.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1841273
- PAR ID:
- 10480790
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Nature
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature
- Volume:
- 618
- Issue:
- 7966
- ISSN:
- 0028-0836
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 761 to 766
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Dynamic triggering of earthquakes has been reported at various fault systems. The triggered earthquakes are thought to be caused either directly by dynamic stress changes due to the passing seismic waves, or indirectly by other nonlinear processes that are initiated by the passing waves. Distinguishing these physical mechanisms is difficult because of the general lack of high‐resolution earthquake catalogs and robust means to quantitatively evaluate triggering responses, particularly, delayed responses. Here we use the high‐resolution Quake Template Matching catalog in Southern California to systematically evaluate teleseismic dynamic triggering patterns in the San Jacinto Fault Zone and the Salton Sea Geothermal Field from 2008 to 2017. We develop a new statistical approach to identify triggered cases, finding that approximately 1 out of every 5 globalMw ≥ 6 earthquakes dynamically trigger microearthquakes in Southern California. The triggering responses include both instantaneous and delayed triggering, showing a highly heterogeneous pattern and indicating possible evolving triggering thresholds. We do not observe a clear peak ground velocity triggering threshold that can differentiate triggering earthquakes from nontriggering events, but there are subtle differences in the frequency content of the ground motion that may differentiate the earthquakes. In contrast to the depth distribution of background seismicity, the identified triggered earthquakes tend to concentrate at the edges of the seismogenic zones. Although instantaneously triggered earthquakes are likely a result of dynamic Coulomb stress changes, the cases of delayed‐dynamic triggering are best explained by nonlinear triggering processes, including cyclic material fatigue, accelerated transient creep, and stochastic frictional heterogeneities.more » « less
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Abstract We develop an earthquake simulator to study the partitioning of seismic/aseismic slip and dynamics of Earthquakes on a Heterogeneous strike‐slip Fault (HFQsim) using a generalized model of a discrete fault governed by static/dynamic friction and creep in an elastic half‐space. Previous versions of the simulator were shown to produce various realistic seismicity patterns (e.g., frequency‐magnitude event statistics, hypocenter and slip distributions, temporal occurrence) using friction levels and creep properties that vary in space but are fixed in time. The new simulator incorporates frictional heat generation by earthquake slip leading to temperature rises, subsequent diffusion cooling into the half space, and time‐dependent creep on the fault. The model assumes a power law dependence of creep velocity on the local shear stress, with temperature‐dependent coefficients based on the Arrhenius equation. Temperature rises due to seismic slip produce increased aseismic slip, which can lead to further stress concentrations, aftershocks, and heat generation in a feedback loop. The partitioning of seismic/aseismic slip and space‐time evolution of seismicity are strongly affected by the temperature changes on the fault. The results are also affected significantly by the difference between the static and kinetic friction levels. The model produces realistic spatio‐temporal distribution of seismicity, transient aseismic slip patterns, mainshock‐aftershock sequences, and a bimodal distribution of earthquakes with background and clustered events similar to observations. The HFQsim may be used to clarify relations between fault properties and different features of seismicity and aseismic slip, and to improve the understanding of failure patterns preceding large earthquakes.more » « less
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SUMMARY We present our estimations and comparisons of the in situ Vp/Vs ratios and seismicity characteristics for the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault in northern California and the San Jacinto Fault Zone and its adjacent regions in southern California. Our results show that the high-resolution in situ Vp/Vs ratios are much more complex than the tomographic Vp/Vs models. They show similar variation patterns to those in the tomographic Vp models, indicating that Vp/Vs ratios are controlled by material properties but are also strongly influenced by fluid contents. In Parkfield, we observe velocity contrasts between the creeping and locked sections. In southern California, we see small-scale anomalous Vp/Vs variation patterns, especially where fault segments intersect, terminate and change orientations. In addition, our investigation confirms that the seismicity in Parkfield is more repeatable than in southern California. However, the earthquakes in the southernmost portion of the San Andreas fault, the trifurcation area of the San Jacinto Fault Zone and the Imperial fault are as much likely falling into clusters as those in Parkfield. The correlation of highly similar events with anomalous in situ Vp/Vs ratios supports the important role of fluids in the occurrence of repeating earthquakes. The high-resolution Vp/Vs ratio estimation method and the corresponding results are helpful for revealing roles of fluids in driving earthquake, fault interaction and stress distribution in fault zones.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06058-9
