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While current evidence indicates that the United States did not experience a baby boom during the pandemic, few empirical studies have considered the underlying rationale for the American baby bust. Relying on data collected during the pandemic (n = 574), we find that pandemic-related subjective assessments (e.g., self-reported stress, fear of COVID-19 and relationship struggles) and not economic indicators (e.g., employment status, income level) were related to levels of fertility motivations among individuals in relationships. Analysis of within-person changes in fertility motivations shows that shifts in the number of children, increases in mental health issues and increases in relationship uncertainty, rather than changes in economic circumstances, were associated with short-term assessments of the importance of avoiding a pregnancy. We argue for broadening conceptual frameworks of fertility motivations by moving beyond a focus on economic factors to include a cognitive schema that takes subjective concerns into account.
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Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California
Abstract The COVID‐19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a “baby bust” in the United States. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million, contributing 12 percent of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer‐run fertility trends, we observe modest, short‐term reductions in births from mid‐2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign‐born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.‐born population, the short‐term pandemic‐attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic's accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the United States.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2049300
- PAR ID:
- 10480802
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Population and Development Review
- Volume:
- 50
- Issue:
- S1
- ISSN:
- 0098-7921
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 101-128
- Size(s):
- p. 101-128
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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