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Title: Preconditioning of Summer Melt Ponds From Winter Sea Ice Surface Temperature
Abstract Comparing helicopter‐borne surface temperature maps in winter and optical orthomosaics in summer from the year‐long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition, we find a strong geometric correlation between warm anomalies in winter and melt pond location the following summer. Warm anomalies are associated with thinner snow and ice, that is, surface depression and refrozen leads, that allow for water accumulation during melt. Warm surface temperature anomalies in January were 0.3–2.5 K warmer on sea ice that later formed melt ponds. A one‐dimensional steady‐state thermodynamic model shows that the observed surface temperature differences are in line with the observed ice thickness and snow depth. We demonstrate the potential of seasonal prediction of summer melt pond location and coverage from winter surface temperature observations. A threshold‐based classification achieves a correct classification for 41% of the melt ponds.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2138786
PAR ID:
10480997
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
AGU Advancing Earth and Space Sciences
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
50
Issue:
4
ISSN:
0094-8276
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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