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Summary Predictive relationships between plant traits and environmental factors can be derived at global and regional scales, informing efforts to reorient ecological models around functional traits. However, in a changing climate, the environmental variables used as predictors in such relationships are far from stationary. This could yield errors in trait–environment model predictions if timescale is not accounted for.Here, the timescale dependence of trait–environment relationships is investigated by regressingin situtrait measurements of specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, and wood density on local climate characteristics summarized across several increasingly long timescales.We identify contrasting responses of leaf and wood traits to climate timescale. Leaf traits are best predicted by recent climate timescales, while wood density is a longer term memory trait. The use of sub‐optimal climate timescales reduces the accuracy of the resulting trait–environment relationships.This study concludes that plant traits respond to climate conditions on the timescale of tissue lifespans rather than long‐term climate normals, even at large spatial scales where multiple ecological and physiological mechanisms drive trait change. Thus, determining trait–environment relationships with temporally relevant climate variables may be critical for predicting trait change in a nonstationary climate system.
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Warming undermines emergence success in a threatened alpine stonefly: A multi‐trait perspective on vulnerability to climate change
Abstract Vulnerability to warming is often assessed using short‐term metrics such as the critical thermal maximum (CTMAX), which represents an organism's ability to survive extreme heat. However, the long‐term effects of sub‐lethal warming are an essential link to fitness in the wild, and these effects are not adequately captured by metrics like CTMAX.The meltwater stonefly,Lednia tumana, is endemic to high‐elevation streams of Glacier National Park, MT, USA, and has long been considered acutely vulnerable to climate‐change‐associated stream warming. As a result, in 2019, it was listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. This presumed vulnerability to warming was challenged by a recent study showing that nymphs can withstand short‐term exposure to temperatures as high as ~27°C. But whether they also tolerate exposure to chronic, long‐term warming remained unclear.By measuring fitness‐related traits at several ecologically relevant temperatures over several weeks, we show thatL. tumanacannot complete its life‐cycle at temperatures only a few degrees above what some populations currently experience.The temperature at which growth rate was maximized appears to have a detrimental impact on other key traits (survival, emergence success and wing development), thus extending our understanding ofL. tumana's vulnerability to climate change.Our results call into question the use of CTMAXas a sole metric of thermal sensitivity for a species, while highlighting the power and complexity of multi‐trait approaches to assessing vulnerability. Read the freePlain Language Summaryfor this article on the Journal blog.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2109873
- PAR ID:
- 10481593
- Publisher / Repository:
- Functional Ecology
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Functional Ecology
- Volume:
- 37
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0269-8463
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1033 to 1043
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.14284
