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1. Sequential Bayesian Registration for Functional Data

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-025-10640-8  

   Kim, Yoonji; Chkrebtii, Oksana A; Kurtek, Sebastian A (August 2025, Statistics and Computing)

   Abstract In many modern applications, discretely-observed data may be naturally understood as a set of functions. Functional data often exhibit two confounded sources of variability: amplitude (y-axis) and phase (x-axis). The extraction of amplitude and phase, a process known as registration, is essential in exploring the underlying structure of functional data in a variety of areas, from environmental monitoring to medical imaging. Critically, such data are often gathered sequentially with new functional observations arriving over time. Despite this, existing registration procedures do not sequentially update inference based on the new data, requiring model refitting. To address these challenges, we introduce a Bayesian framework for sequential registration of functional data, which updates statistical inference as new sets of functions are assimilated. This Bayesian model-based sequential learning approach utilizes sequential Monte Carlo sampling to recursively update the alignment of observed functions while accounting for associated uncertainty. Distributed computing significantly reduces computational cost relative to refitting the model using an iterative method such as Markov chain Monte Carlo on the full data. Simulation studies and comparisons reveal that the proposed approach performs well even when the target posterior distribution has a challenging structure. We apply the proposed method to three real datasets: (1) functions of annual drought intensity near Kaweah River in California, (2) annual sea surface salinity functions near Null Island, and (3) a sequence of repeated patterns in electrocardiogram signals. 

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2. Conjugate Modeling Approaches for Small Area Estimation with Heteroscedastic Structure

   https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smad002  

   Parker, Paul A; Holan, Scott H; Janicki, Ryan (February 2023, Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology)

   Abstract Small area estimation (SAE) has become an important tool in official statistics, used to construct estimates of population quantities for domains with small sample sizes. Typical area-level models function as a type of heteroscedastic regression, where the variance for each domain is assumed to be known and plugged in following a design-based estimate. Recent work has considered hierarchical models for the variance, where the design-based estimates are used as an additional data point to model the latent true variance in each domain. These hierarchical models may incorporate covariate information but can be difficult to sample from in high-dimensional settings. Utilizing recent distribution theory, we explore a class of Bayesian hierarchical models for SAE that smooth both the design-based estimate of the mean and the variance. In addition, we develop a class of unit-level models for heteroscedastic Gaussian response data. Importantly, we incorporate both covariate information as well as spatial dependence, while retaining a conjugate model structure that allows for efficient sampling. We illustrate our methodology through an empirical simulation study as well as an application using data from the American Community Survey. 

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3. Concurrent Functional Linear Regression Via Plug-in Empirical Likelihood

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s13171-024-00369-3  

   Chang, Hsin-wen; McKeague, Ian W (September 2024, Sankhya A)

   Abstract Functional data with non-smooth features (e.g., discontinuities in the functional mean and/or covariance) and monotonicity arise frequently in practice. This paper develops simultaneous inference for concurrent functional linear regression in this setting. We construct a simultaneous confidence band for a functional covariate effect of interest. Along with a Wald-type formulation, our approach is based on a powerful nonparametric likelihood ratio method. Our procedures are flexible enough to allow discontinuities in the coefficient functions and the covariance structure, while accounting for discretization of the observed trajectories under a fixed dense design. A simulation study shows that the proposed likelihood ratio-based procedure outperforms the Wald-type procedure in moderate sample sizes. We apply the proposed methods to studying the effect of age on the occupation time curve derived from wearable device data obtained in an NHANES study. 

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4. Prior and Posterior Checking of Implicit Causal Assumptions

   https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13886  

   Linero, Antonio R. (June 2023, Biometrics)

   Abstract Causal inference practitioners have increasingly adopted machine learning techniques with the aim of producing principled uncertainty quantification for causal effects while minimizing the risk of model misspecification. Bayesian nonparametric approaches have attracted attention as well, both for their flexibility and their promise of providing natural uncertainty quantification. Priors on high-dimensional or nonparametric spaces, however, can often unintentionally encode prior information that is at odds with substantive knowledge in causal inference—specifically, the regularization required for high-dimensional Bayesian models to work can indirectly imply that the magnitude of the confounding is negligible. In this paper, we explain this problem and provide tools for (i) verifying that the prior distribution does not encode an inductive bias away from confounded models and (ii) verifying that the posterior distribution contains sufficient information to overcome this issue if it exists. We provide a proof-of-concept on simulated data from a high-dimensional probit-ridge regression model, and illustrate on a Bayesian nonparametric decision tree ensemble applied to a large medical expenditure survey. 

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5. Semiparametric fiducial inference for Cox models

   https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssb/qkag111  

   Cui, Yifan; Hannig, Jan; Edlefsen, Paul (July 2026, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology)

   Abstract R.A. Fisher introduced the fiducial distribution as a potential replacement for the Bayesian posterior distribution in the 1930s. During the past century, fiducial approaches have been explored in various parametric and nonparametric settings. However, to the best of our knowledge, no fiducial inference has been developed in the realm of semiparametric statistics. In this paper, we propose a novel fiducial approach for semiparametric models. In memory of Sir David Cox, who passed away in 2022, we use the Cox proportional hazards model, which is the most popular model for the analysis of survival data, as a running example. Other models and extensions are also discussed. In our experiments, we find that our method performs particularly well in situations where the maximum likelihood estimator fails. 

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