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Abstract An ensemble postprocessing method is developed for the probabilistic prediction of severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and wind gusts) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines conditional generative adversarial networks (CGANs), a type of deep generative model, with a convolutional neural network (CNN) to postprocess convection-allowing model (CAM) forecasts. The CGANs are designed to create synthetic ensemble members from deterministic CAM forecasts, and their outputs are processed by the CNN to estimate the probability of severe weather. The method is tested using High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 1–24-h forecasts as inputs and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) severe weather reports as targets. The method produced skillful predictions with up to 20% Brier skill score (BSS) increases compared to other neural-network-based reference methods using a testing dataset of HRRR forecasts in 2021. For the evaluation of uncertainty quantification, the method is overconfident but produces meaningful ensemble spreads that can distinguish good and bad forecasts. The quality of CGAN outputs is also evaluated. Results show that the CGAN outputs behave similarly to a numerical ensemble; they preserved the intervariable correlations and the contribution of influential predictors as in the original HRRR forecasts. This work provides a novel approach to postprocess CAM output using neural networks that can be applied to severe weather prediction. Significance StatementWe use a new machine learning (ML) technique to generate probabilistic forecasts of convective weather hazards, such as tornadoes and hailstorms, with the output from high-resolution numerical weather model forecasts. The new ML system generates an ensemble of synthetic forecast fields from a single forecast, which are then used to train ML models for convective hazard prediction. Using this ML-generated ensemble for training leads to improvements of 10%–20% in severe weather forecast skills compared to using other ML algorithms that use only output from the single forecast. This work is unique in that it explores the use of ML methods for producing synthetic forecasts of convective storm events and using these to train ML systems for high-impact convective weather prediction.
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Machine Learning Enables Prediction of Halide Perovskites’ Optical Behavior with >90% Accuracy
The composition-dependent degradation of hybrid organic− inorganic perovskites (HOIPs) due to environmental stressors still precludes their commercialization. It is very difficult to quantify their behavior upon exposure to each stressor by exclusively using trial-and-error methods due to the high-dimensional parameter space involved. We implement machine learning (ML) models using high-throughput, in situ photoluminescence (PL) to predict the response of CsyFA1−yPb(BrxI1−x)3 while exposed to relative humidity cycles. We quantitatively compare three ML models while generating forecasts of environment-dependent PL responses: linear regression, echo state network, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous regressor algorithms. We achieve accuracy of >90% for the latter, while tracking PL changes over a 50 h window. Samples with 17% of Cs content consistently showed a PL increase as a function of cycle. Our precise time-series forecasts can be extended to other HOIP families, illustrating the potential of data-centric approaches to accelerate material development for clean-energy devices.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2023974
- PAR ID:
- 10484007
- Publisher / Repository:
- ACS Energy Letters
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ACS Energy Letters
- Volume:
- 8
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2380-8195
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1716 to 1722
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1021/acsenergylett.2c02555
