skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Statistical Analysis of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles Climatology and Multi‐Day Periodicity Using GOLD Observations
Abstract This study develops a new Bubble Index to quantify the intensity of 2‐D postsunset equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) in the American/Atlantic sector, using Global‐scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) nighttime data. A climatology and day‐to‐day variability analysis of EPBs is conducted based on the newly‐derived Bubble Index with the following results: (a) EPBs show considerable seasonal and solar activity dependence, with stronger (weaker) intensity around December (June) solstice and high (low) solar activity years. (b) EPBs exhibit opposite geomagnetic activity dependencies during different storm phases: EPBs are intensified concurrently with an increasing Kp, but are suppressed with high Kp occurring 3–6 hr earlier. (c) For the first time, we found that EPBs' day‐to‐day variation exhibited quasi‐3‐day and quasi‐6‐day periods. A coordinated analysis of Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) winds and ionosonde data suggests that this multi‐day periodicity was related to the planetary wave modulation through the wind‐driven dynamo.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2149698 2033787 1952737 2033843
PAR ID:
10484429
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
50
Issue:
8
ISSN:
0094-8276
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) are a region of depleted ionospheric densities. EPBs are known to fluctuate both seasonally and day to day, and have been linked to changes in solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and seeding resulting from dynamics occurring at lower altitudes. Here, EPB activity is investigated over a 15-day period with overlapping coincident ground-based 630 nm oxygen airglow measurements, near-infrared hydroxyl mesospheric temperature mapper (MTM) measurements, and Rate Of change of Total Electron Content Index (ROTI) values. The data are compared with the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) reanalysis over the same time period. It is found that several days with strong EPB activity coincided with the positive/northward meridional wind phase of the quasi-two-day wave (QTDW) in the mesosphere. These initial observations indicate correlations of the QTDW phase and the occurrence rates of EPBs, and suggest a need for further investigations to assess potential causal relationships that may affect the variability and prevalence of EPBs. 
    more » « less
  2. This paper presents a multi-instrument observational analysis of the equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) variation over the American sector during a geomagnetically quiet time period of 07–10 December 2019. The day-to-day variability of EPBs and their underlying drivers are investigated through coordinately utilizing the Global-scale Observations of Limb and Disk (GOLD) ultraviolet images, the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) in-situ and remote sensing data, the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) total electron content (TEC) observations, as well as ionosonde measurements. The main results are as follows: 1) The postsunset EPBs’ intensity exhibited a large day-to-day variation in the same UT intervals, which was fairly noticeable in the evening of December 07, yet considerably suppressed on December 08 and 09, and then dramatically revived and enhanced on December 10. 2) The postsunset linear Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth rate exhibited a different variation pattern. It had a relatively modest peak value on December 07 and 08, yet a larger peak value on December 09 and 10. There was a 2-h time lag of the growth rate peak time in the evening of December 09 from other nights. This analysis did not show an exact one-to-one relationship between the peak growth rate and the observed EPBs intensity. 3) The EPBs’ day-to-day variation has a better agreement with that of traveling ionospheric disturbances and atmospheric gravity waves signatures, which exhibited relatively strong wavelike perturbations preceding/accompanying the observed EPBs on December 07 and 10 yet relatively weak fluctuations on December 08 and 09. These coordinate observations indicate that the initial wavelike seeding perturbations associated with AGWs, together with the catalyzing factor of the instability growth rate, collectively played important roles to modulate the day-to-day variation of EPBs. A strong seeding perturbation could effectively compensate for a moderate strength of Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth rate and therefore their combined effect could facilitate EPB development. Lacking proper seeding perturbations would make it a more inefficient process for the development of EPBs, especially with a delayed peak value of Rayleigh-Taylor instability growth rate. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract Local empirical models of the F2 layer peak electron density (NmF2) are developed for 43 low‐ middle latitude ionosonde stations using auto‐scaled data from Lowell GIRO data center and manually scaled data from World Data Center for Ionosphere and Space Weather. Data coverage at these stations ranges from a few years to up to 6 decades. Flare Irradiance Spectral Model index version 2 (FISM2) and ap3 index are used to parametrize the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux and geomagnetic activity dependence of NmF2. Learning curves suggest that approximately 8 years of data coverage is required to constrain the solar activity dependence of NmF2. Output of local models altogether captures well known anomalies of the F2 ionospheric layer. Performance metrics demonstrate that the model parametrized using FISM2 has better accuracy than a similarly parametrized model with F10.7, as well as than the IRI‐2020 model. Skill score metrics indicate that the FISM2 based model outperforms F10.7 model at all solar activity levels. The improved accuracy of model with FISM2 over F10.7 is due to better representation of solar rotation by FISM2, and due to its performance at solar extremum. Application of singular spectrum analysis to model output reveals that solar rotation contributes to about 2%–3% of the variance in NmF2 data and FISM2 based model, while F10.7 based models overestimate the strength of solar rotation to be at 4%–7%. At solar extremum, both F10.7‐based model and IRI‐2020 tend to overestimate the NmF2 while FISM2 provides the most accurate prediction out of three. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract Based on the vertical Total Electron Content (TEC) data observed by the Global Navigation Satellite System in the northern hemisphere, a large area of low plasma density during summer at high latitudes, termed decreased TEC region, was investigated statistically between 2014 and 2024. Compared with the classical depleted structures that usually occur in the nighttime F region at high latitudes during winter, decreased TEC region is usually found in the sunlit polar cap ionosphere during summer. The decreased TEC region is predominantly located in regions above 70° magnetic latitude for moderate and high solar activity. The lower‐TEC region is biased towards the dawn and midnight sectors. Along the 18:25–06:25 Magnetic Local Time meridian, the depth of the decreased TEC region reached 7.6TECu in 2014. The decreased TEC region is deeper for higher Kp (Kp > 2) than for low Kp (Kp ≤ 2). 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Regression models (LEEMYR: Low Energy Electron MLT geosYnchronous orbit Regression) predict hourly 4.1–30 keV electron flux at geostationary orbit (GOES‐16) using solar wind, IMF, and geomagnetic index parameters. Multiplicative interaction and polynomial terms describe synergistic and nonlinear effects. We reduce predictors to an optimal set using stepwise regression, resulting in models with validation comparable to a neural network. Models predict 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hr into the future. Validation correlations are as high as 0.78 (4.1 and 11 keV, 1 hr prediction) and Heidke Skill scores (HSS) up to 0.66. A 3 hr ahead prediction is more practical, with slightly lower validation correlation (0.75) and HSS (0.61). The addition of location (MLT: magnetic local time) as a covariate, including multiplicative interaction terms, accounts for location‐dependent flux differences and variation of parameter influence, and allows prediction over the full orbit. Adding a substorm index (SME) provides minimal increase in validation correlation (0.81) showing that other parameters are good proxies for an unavailable real time substorm index. Prediction intervals on individual values provide more accurate assessments of model quality than confidence intervals on the mean values. An inverse N‐weighted least squares approach is impractical as it increases false positive warnings. Physical interpretations are not possible as spurious correlations due to common cycles are not removed. However,SME, Bz, Kp, and Dst are the highest correlates of electron flux, with solar wind velocity, density, and pressure, and IMF magnitude being less well correlated. 
    more » « less