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1. The Zonal Seasonal Cycle of Tropical Precipitation: Introducing the Indo-Pacific Monsoonal Mode

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0125.1  

   Tuckman, P_J ; Smyth, Jane ; Lutsko, Nicholas_J ; Marshall, John ( July 2024 , Journal of Climate)

   The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is associated with a zonal band of strong precipitation that migrates meridionally over the seasonal cycle. Tropical precipitation also migrates zonally, such as from the South Asian monsoon in Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) to the precipitation maximum of the west Pacific in Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF). To explore this zonal movement in the Indo-Pacific sector, we analyze the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation using a 2D energetic framework and study idealized atmosphere–ocean simulations with and without ocean dynamics. In the observed seasonal cycle, an atmospheric energy and precipitation anomaly forms over South Asia in northern spring and summer due to heating over land. It is then advected eastward into the west Pacific in northern autumn and remains there due to interactions with the Pacific cold tongue and equatorial easterlies. We interpret this phenomenon as a “monsoonal mode,” a zonally propagating moist energy anomaly of continental and seasonal scale. To understand the behavior of the monsoonal mode, we develop and explore an analytical model in which the monsoonal mode is advected by low-level winds, is sustained by interaction with the ocean, and decays due to the free tropospheric mixing of energy.

   Regional concentrations of tropical precipitation, such as the South Asian monsoon, provide water to billions of people. These features have strong seasonal cycles that have typically been framed in terms of meridional shifts of precipitation following the sun’s movement. Here, we study zonal shifts of tropical precipitation over the seasonal cycle in observations and idealized simulations. We find that land–ocean contrasts trigger a monsoon with concentrated precipitation over Asia in northern summer and near-surface eastward winds carry this precipitation into the west Pacific during northern autumn in what we call a “monsoonal mode.” This concentrated precipitation remains over the west Pacific during northern winter, as further migration is impeded by the cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and easterly winds of the east Pacific.

    

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2. Intraseasonal variability of global land monsoon precipitation and its recent trend

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00253-7  

   Liu, Fei ; Wang, Bin ; Ouyang, Yu ; Wang, Hui ; Qiao, Shaobo ; Chen, Guosen ; Dong, Wenjie ( April 2022 , npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

   Accurate prediction of global land monsoon rainfall on a sub-seasonal (2–8 weeks) time scale has become a worldwide demand. Current forecasts of weekly-mean rainfall in most monsoon regions, however, have limited skills beyond two weeks, calling for a more profound understanding of monsoon intraseasonal variability (ISV). We show that the high-frequency (HF; 8–20 days) ISV, crucial for the Week 2 and Week 3 predictions, accounts for about 53–70% of the total (8–70 days) ISV, generally dominating the sub-seasonal predictability of various land monsoons, while the low-frequency (LF; 20–70 days)’s contribution is comparable to HF only over Australia (AU; 47%), South Asia (SA; 43%), and South America (SAM; 40%). The leading modes of HFISVs in Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoons primarily originate from different convectively coupled equatorial waves, while from mid-latitude wave trains for Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoons and East Asian (EA) monsoon. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) directly regulates LFISVs in Asian-Australian monsoon and affects American and African monsoons by exciting Kelvin waves and mid-latitude teleconnections. During the past four decades, the HF (LF) ISVs have considerably intensified over Asian (Asian-Australian) monsoon but weakened over American (SAM) monsoon. Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction models exhibit higher sub-seasonal prediction skills over AU, SA, and SAM monsoons that have larger LFISV contributions than other monsoons. These results suggest an urgent need to improve the simulation of convectively coupled equatorial waves and two-way interactions between regional monsoon ISVs and mid-latitude processes and between MJO and regional monsoons, especially under the global warming scenarios.

    

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3. Springtime Onset of Isolated Convection Precipitation across the Southeastern United States: Framework and Regional Evolution

   https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0279.1  

   Rickenbach, Thomas M. ; Ferreira, Rosana Nieto ; Wells, Hannah ( March 2020 , Monthly Weather Review)

   This study examines the geographic and temporal characteristics of the springtime transition to the summer precipitation regime of isolated convection in the southeastern (SE) United States during 2009–12, using a high-resolution surface radar-based precipitation dataset. Isolated convection refers herein to isolated elements or small clusters of precipitation in radar imagery less than 100 km in horizontal dimension. Though the SE United States does not have a monsoon climate, it is useful to apply the established framework of monsoon onset to study the timing and regional variation of the onset of the summer isolated convection regime. Overall, isolated convection rain onset in the SE U.S. domain occurs in late May. Onset begins in south Florida in mid-April, continuing nearly simultaneously across the southeastern coastal plain in early to mid-May. In the northern domain, from Virginia to the Ohio Valley, onset generally occurs much later (mid-June to early July) with more variable onset timing. The sharpness of onset timing is most evident in the coastal plain and Florida. Results suggest the hypothesis, to be examined in a forthcoming study, that the timing of isolated convection onset in the spring may be triggered by specific synoptic-scale events within gradual seasonal changes in atmospheric conditions including extratropical cyclone tracks, convective instability, and the westward migration of the North Atlantic subtropical high. This approach may offer a useful framework for evaluating long-term changes in precipitation for subtropical regimes in an observational and modeling context.

    

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4. Climatological Madden-Julian Oscillation during boreal spring leads to abrupt Australian monsoon retreat and Asian monsoon onsets

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00566-9  

   Wang, Bin ; Dai, Lun ; Cheng, Tat Fan ; Lee, Sun-Seon ; Wang, Tianyi ; Jin, Chunhan ( February 2024 , npj Climate and Atmospheric Science)

   Abrupt monsoon onsets/retreats are indispensable targets for climate prediction and future projection, but the origins of their abruptness remain elusive. This study establishes the existence of three climatological Madden-Julian Oscillation (CMJO) episodes contributing to the rapid Australian summer monsoon retreat in mid-March, the South China Sea (or East Asian) summer monsoon onset in mid-May, and the Indian summer monsoon onset in early June. The CMJO displays a dynamically coherent convection-circulation structure resembling its transitionary counterpart, demonstrating its robustness as a convectively coupled circulation system and the tendency of the transient MJOs’ phase-lock to the annual cycle. The CMJO is inactive during the boreal winter due to destructive year-to-year modulations of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We hypothesize that the interaction between atmospheric internal variability (MJO) and the insolation-forced slow annual cycle generates the sudden monsoon withdrawal/onset during the boreal spring. Understanding the factors determining the timing and location of the MJO’s phase-locking and its variability is vital for monsoon forecasting and climate projection.

    

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5. The Mixed Layer Salinity Budget in the Central Equatorial Indian Ocean

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017280  

   Chi, Nan‐Hsun ; Lien, Ren‐Chieh ; D'Asaro, Eric A. ( June 2021 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans)

   The oceanic surface mixed layer salinity (MLS) budget of the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean during boreal fall and winter is studied using in situ and remote sensing measurements. Budgets on roughly 100 km scale were constructed using data from twoDYNAmics of theMadden–JulianOscillation and twoResearch MooredArray for African‐Asian‐AustralianMonsoonAnalysis and Prediction moorings near 79°E during September 2011 to January 2012. The horizontal advective salinity flux plays a significant role in the seasonal variation of equatorial MLS. In boreal fall, the equatorial and 1.5°S MLS increases due to horizontal advection and turbulent mixing, despite the freshening surface flux associated with MJOs. In boreal winter, with larger sub‐monthly variation and uncertainties, the decreasing of equatorial MLS is accounted by freshening zonal advection and surface flux, abated by salty meridional advection; the 1.5°S MLS is explained by the combination of freshening meridional advection and surface flux, and salty zonal advection. Budgets between 2011 and 2015 are investigated using data products from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, Aquarius, Ocean Surface Current Analyses Real‐time, Objectively Analyzed air‐sea Fluxes, and Argo mixed layers over a wider region. The eastward development of the equatorial salinity tongue in the central to eastern Indian Ocean in boreal fall and the westward retreat in boreal winter are largely determined by the equatorial zonal current. The meridional migration of ITCZ rainfall plays a secondary role. In order to improve model prediction skills of MLS changes in the equatorial Indian Ocean, both zonal and meridional salinity advective fluxes, at a spatial scale of 1° longitude and latitude and a timescale less than days, need to be properly simulated.

    

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