We examine massive black hole (MBH) mergers and their associated gravitational wave signals from the largevolume cosmological simulation Astrid . Astrid includes galaxy formation and black hole models recently updated with an MBH seed population between 3 × 104h−1M⊙ and 3 × 105h−1M⊙ and a subgrid dynamical friction (DF) model to follow the MBH dynamics down to 1.5 ckpc h−1. We calculate the initial eccentricities of MBH orbits directly from the simulation at kpcscales, and find orbital eccentricities above 0.7 for most MBH pairs before the numerical merger. After approximating unresolved evolution on scales below ${\sim 200\, \text{pc}}$, we find that the insimulation DF on large scales accounts for more than half of the total orbital decay time ($\sim 500\, \text{Myr}$) due to DF. The binary hardening time is an order of magnitude longer than the DF time, especially for the seedmass binaries (MBH < 2Mseed). As a result, only $\lesssim 20{{\rm per \,cent}}$ of seed MBH pairs merge at z > 3 after considering both unresolved DF evolution and binary hardening. These z > 3 seedmass mergers are hosted in a biased population of galaxies with the highest stellar masses of $\gt 10^9\, {\rm M}_\odot$. With the higher initial eccentricity prediction from Astrid , we estimate an expected merger rate of 0.3−0.7 per year from the z > 3 MBH population. This is a factor of ∼7 higher than the prediction using the circular orbit assumption. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna events are expected at a similar rate, and comprise $\gtrsim 60\,{\rm{per\,cent}}$ seedseed mergers, $\sim 30\,{\rm{per\,cent}}$ involving only one seedmass MBH, and $\sim 10\,{\rm{per\,cent}}$ mergers of nonseed MBHs.
In the near future, projects like Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) and pulsar timing arrays are expected to detect gravitational waves from mergers between supermassive black holes, and it is crucial to precisely model the underlying merger populations now to maximize what we can learn from this new data. Here, we characterize expected highredshift (z > 2) black hole mergers using the very large volume Astrid cosmological simulation, which uses a range of seed masses to probe down to lowmass black holes (BHs), and directly incorporates dynamical friction so as to accurately model the dynamical processes that bring black holes to the galaxy centre where binary formation and coalescence will occur. The black hole populations in Astrid include black holes down to $\sim 10^{4.5} \, \mathrm{M}_\odot$, and remain broadly consistent with the TNG simulations at scales $\gt 10^6 \, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ (the seed mass used in TNG). By resolving lower mass black holes, the overall merger rate is ∼5× higher than in TNG. However, incorporating dynamical friction delays mergers compared to a recentring scheme, reducing the highz merger rate massmatched mergers by a factor of ∼2×. We also calculate the expected LISA signaltonoise values, and show that the distribution peaks at high SNR (>100), emphasizing the importance of implementing a seed mass well below LISA’s peak sensitivity ($\sim 10^6 \, \mathrm{M}_\odot$) to resolve the majority of LISA’s gravitational wave detections.
more » « less NSFPAR ID:
 10485315
 Publisher / Repository:
 Oxford University Press
 Date Published:
 Journal Name:
 Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
 Volume:
 527
 Issue:
 4
 ISSN:
 00358711
 Format(s):
 Medium: X Size: p. 1176611776
 Size(s):
 ["p. 1176611776"]
 Sponsoring Org:
 National Science Foundation
More Like this

ABSTRACT 
ABSTRACT The launch of spacebased gravitationalwave (GW) detectors (e.g. Laser Interferometry Space Antenna; LISA) and current and upcoming Pulsar Timing Arrays will extend the GW window to low frequencies, opening new investigations into dynamical processes involving massive black hole binaries (MBHBs) and their mergers across cosmic time. MBHBs are expected to be among the primary sources for the upcoming lowfrequency (10−4–10−1 Hz) window probed by LISA. It is important to investigate the expected supermassive BH merger rates and associated signals, to determine how potential LISA events are affected by physics included in current models. To study this, we postprocess the large population of MBHBs in the Illustris simulation to account for dynamical friction time delays associated with BH infall/inspiral. We show that merger delays associated with binary evolution have the potential to decrease the expected merger rates, with $M_{\rm {BH}}\ \gt\ 10^6\ \mathrm{M}_\odot$ MBHBs (the lowest mass in Illustris) decreasing from ∼3 to ∼0.1 yr−1, and shifting the merger peak from z ∼2 to ∼1.25. During this time, we estimate that accretion grows the total merging mass by as much as 7x the original mass. Importantly, however, dynamical frictionassociated delays (which shift the mergers toward lower redshift and higher masses) lead to a stronger signal/strain for the emitted GWs in the LISA band, increasing mean frequency from 10−3.1 to 10−3.4–10−4.0 Hz, and mean strain from 10−17.2 to 10−16.3–10−15.3. Finally, we show that after including a merger delay and associated MBH growth, mergers still tend to lie on the typical MBH–M* relation, but with an increased likelihood of an undermassive BH.

ABSTRACT Massive black holes in the centres of galaxies today must have grown by several orders of magnitude from seed black holes formed at early times. Detecting a population of intermediate mass black holes (IMBHs) can provide constraints on these elusive BH seeds. Here, we use the large volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation Astrid, which includes IMBH seeds and dynamical friction to investigate the population of IMBH seeds. Dynamical friction is largely inefficient at sinking and merging seed IMBHs at highz. This leads to an extensive population (several hundred per galaxy) of wandering IMBHs in large haloes at $z\sim 2$. A small fraction of these IMBHs are detectable as HLXs, Hyper Luminous Xray sources. Importantly, at $z\sim 2$, IMBHs mergers produce the peak of GW events. We find close to a million GW events in Astrid between $z=\rm{2\!\!3}$ involving seed IMBH mergers. These GW events (almost all detectable by LISA) at cosmic noon should provide strong constraints on IMBH seed models and their formation mechanisms. At the centre of massive galaxies, where the number of IMBHs can be as high as 10–100, SMBHIMBH pairs can form. These Intermediate mass ratio inspirals (IMRIs) and extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs), will require the next generation of milli$\mu$Hz spacebased GW interferometers to be detected. Large populations of IMBHs around massive black holes will probe their environments and MBH causal structure.

ABSTRACT We introduce the Astrid simulation, a largescale cosmological hydrodynamic simulation in a $250 \, h^{1}\mathrm{Mpc}$ box with 2 × 55003 particles. Astrid contains a large number of high redshift galaxies, which can be compared to future survey data, and resolves galaxies in haloes more massive than $2\times 10^9 \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$. Astrid has been run from z = 99 to 3. As a particular focus is modelling the high redshift Universe, it contains models for inhomogeneous hydrogen and helium reionization, baryon relative velocities and massive neutrinos, as well as supernova and AGN feedback. The black hole model includes mergers driven by dynamical friction rather than repositioning. We briefly summarize the implemented models, and the technical choices we took when developing the simulation code. We validate the model, showing good agreement with observed ultraviolet luminosity functions, galaxy stellar mass functions and specific star formation rates (SFRs). We show that the redshift at which a given galaxy underwent hydrogen reionization has a large effect on the halo gas fraction. Finally, at z = 6, haloes with $M \sim 2\times 10^9 \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$ which have been reionized have an SFR 1.5 times greater than those which have not yet been reionized.

ABSTRACT Direct collapse black holes (BHs) are promising candidates for producing massive z ≳ 6 quasars, but their formation requires finetuned conditions. In this work, we use cosmological zoom simulations to study systematically the impact of requiring: (1) low gas angular momentum (spin), and (2) a minimum incident Lyman–Werner (LW) flux in order to form BH seeds. We probe the formation of seeds (with initial masses of $M_{\rm seed} \sim 10^4\!\!10^6\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{1})$ in haloes with a total mass >3000 × Mseed and a dense, metalpoor gas mass >5 × Mseed. Within this framework, we find that the seedforming haloes have a prior history of star formation and metal enrichment, but they also contain pockets of dense, metalpoor gas. When seeding is further restricted to haloes with low gas spins, the number of seeds formed is suppressed by factors of ∼6 compared to the baseline model, regardless of the seed mass. Seed formation is much more strongly impacted if the dense, metalpoor gas is required to have a critical LW flux (Jcrit). Even for Jcrit values as low as 50J21, no $8\times 10^{5}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{1}$ seeds are formed. While lower mass ($1.25\times 10^{4},1\times 10^{5}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{1}$) seeds do form, they are strongly suppressed (by factors of ∼10–100) compared to the baseline model at gas mass resolutions of $\sim 10^4~\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{1}$ (with even stronger suppression at higher resolutions). As a result, BH merger rates are also similarly suppressed. Since early BH growth is dominated by mergers in our models, none of the seeds are able to grow to the supermassive regime ($\gtrsim 10^6~\mathrm{M}_{\odot }\, h^{1}$) by z = 7. Our results hint that producing the bulk of the z ≳ 6 supermassive BH population may require alternate seeding scenarios that do not depend on the LW flux, early BH growth dominated by rapid or superEddington accretion, or a combination of these possibilities.