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1. Clustering of longitudinal physical activity trajectories among young females with selection of associated factors

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0268376  

   Yang, Luoying; Young, Deborah R.; Wu, Tong Tong (May 2022, PLOS ONE)

   Harezlak, Jaroslaw (Ed.)

   We examined multi-level factors related to the longitudinal physical activity trajectories of adolescent girls to determine the important predictors for physical activity. The Trial of Activity in Adolescent Girls (TAAG) Maryland site recruited participants at age 14 ( n = 566) and followed up with these girls at age 17 ( n = 553) and age 23 ( n = 442). Individual, social factors and perceived environmental factors were assessed by questionnaire; body mass index was measured at age 14 and age 17, and self-reported at age 23. Neighborhood factors were assessed by geographic information systems. The outcome, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) minutes in a day, was assessed from accelerometers. A mixture of linear mixed-effects models with double penalization on fixed effects and random effects was used to identify the intrinsic grouping of participants with similar physical activity trajectory patterns and the most relevant predictors within the groups simultaneously. Three clusters of participants were identified. Two hundred and forty participants were clustered as “maintainers” and had consistently low MVPA over time; 289 participants were clustered as “decreasers” who had decreasing MVPA over time; 39 participants were grouped as “increasers” and had increasing MVPA over time. Each of the three clusters has its own cluster-specific factors identified using the clustering method, indicating that each cluster has unique characteristics. 

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2. Covariate-guided Bayesian mixture of spline experts for the analysis of multivariate high-density longitudinal data

   https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxad034  

   Fu, Haoyi; Tang, Lu; Rosen, Ori; Hipwell, Alison E; Huppert, Theodore J; Krafty, Robert T (December 2023, Biostatistics)

   Summary With rapid development of techniques to measure brain activity and structure, statistical methods for analyzing modern brain-imaging data play an important role in the advancement of science. Imaging data that measure brain function are usually multivariate high-density longitudinal data and are heterogeneous across both imaging sources and subjects, which lead to various statistical and computational challenges. In this article, we propose a group-based method to cluster a collection of multivariate high-density longitudinal data via a Bayesian mixture of smoothing splines. Our method assumes each multivariate high-density longitudinal trajectory is a mixture of multiple components with different mixing weights. Time-independent covariates are assumed to be associated with the mixture components and are incorporated via logistic weights of a mixture-of-experts model. We formulate this approach under a fully Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling where the number of components is selected based on a deviance information criterion. The proposed method is compared to existing methods via simulation studies and is applied to a study on functional near-infrared spectroscopy, which aims to understand infant emotional reactivity and recovery from stress. The results reveal distinct patterns of brain activity, as well as associations between these patterns and selected covariates. 

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3. A Dirichlet Mixture Model of Hawkes Processes for Event Sequence Clustering

   Xu, Hongteng; Zha, Hongyuan (January 2017, Advances in neural information processing systems)

   How to cluster event sequences generated via different point processes is an interesting and important problem in statistical machine learning. To solve this problem, we propose and discuss an effective model-based clustering method based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes — Hawkes process. The proposed model generates the event sequences with different clusters from the Hawkes processes with different parameters, and uses a Dirichlet distribution as the prior distribution of the clusters. We prove the identifiability of our mixture model and propose an effective variational Bayesian inference algorithm to learn our model. An adaptive inner iteration allocation strategy is designed to accelerate the convergence of our algorithm. Moreover, we investigate the sample complexity and the computational complexity of our learning algorithm in depth. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that the clustering method based on our model can learn structural triggering patterns hidden in asynchronous event sequences robustly and achieve superior performance on clustering purity and consistency compared to existing methods. 

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4. Bayesian Clustering of Neural Spiking Activity Using a Mixture of Dynamic Poisson Factor Analyzers

   Wei, G; Stevenson, IH; Wang X (January 2022, Advances in neural information processing systems)

   Modern neural recording techniques allow neuroscientists to observe the spiking activity of many neurons simultaneously. Although previous work has illustrated how activity within and between known populations of neurons can be summarized by low-dimensional latent vectors, in many cases what determines a unique population may be unclear. Neurons differ in their anatomical location, but also, in their cell types and response properties. Moreover, multiple distinct populations may not be well described by a single low-dimensional, linear representation.To tackle these challenges, we develop a clustering method based on a mixture of dynamic Poisson factor analyzers (DPFA) model, with the number of clusters treated as an unknown parameter. To do the analysis of DPFA model, we propose a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to efficiently sample its posterior distribution. Validating our proposed MCMC algorithm with simulations, we find that it can accurately recover the true clustering and latent states and is insensitive to the initial cluster assignments. We then apply the proposed mixture of DPFA model to multi-region experimental recordings, where we find that the proposed method can identify novel, reliable clusters of neurons based on their activity, and may, thus, be a useful tool for neural data analysis. 

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5. A Within-Group Approach to Ensemble Machine Learning Methods for Causal Inference in Multilevel Studies

   https://doi.org/10.3102/10769986231162096  

   Suk, Youmi (April 2023, Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics)

   Machine learning (ML) methods for causal inference have gained popularity due to their flexibility to predict the outcome model and the propensity score. In this article, we provide a within-group approach for ML-based causal inference methods in order to robustly estimate average treatment effects in multilevel studies when there is cluster-level unmeasured confounding. We focus on one particular ML-based causal inference method based on the targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) with an ensemble learner called SuperLearner. Through our simulation studies, we observe that training TMLE within groups of similar clusters helps remove bias from cluster-level unmeasured confounders. Also, using within-group propensity scores estimated from fixed effects logistic regression increases the robustness of the proposed within-group TMLE method. Even if the propensity scores are partially misspecified, the within-group TMLE still produces robust ATE estimates due to double robustness with flexible modeling, unlike parametric-based inverse propensity weighting methods. We demonstrate our proposed methods and conduct sensitivity analyses against the number of groups and individual-level unmeasured confounding to evaluate the effect of taking an eighth-grade algebra course on math achievement in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study. 

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