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1. Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05667-2  

   Bozkurt, D. ( February 2021 , Climate dynamics)

   null (Ed.)

   This study presents near future (2020–2044) temperature and precipitation changes over the Antarctic Peninsula under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We make use of historical and projected simulations from 19 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We compare and contrast GCMs projections with two groups of regional climate model simulations (RCMs): (1) high resolution (15-km) simulations performed with Polar-WRF model forced with bias-corrected NCAR-CESM1 (NC-CORR) over the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) medium resolution (50-km) simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P forced with EC-EARTH (EC) obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica. A further comparison of historical simulations (1981–2005) with respect to ERA5 reanalysis is also included for circulation patterns and near-surface temperature climatology. In general, both RCM boundary conditions represent well the main circulation patterns of the historical period. Nonetheless, there are important differences in projections such as a notable deepening and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low in EC and NC-CORR, respectively. Mean annual near-surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.5 ◦ C across the entire peninsula. Temperature increase is more substantial in autumn and winter ( ∼ 2 ◦C). Following opposite circulation pattern changes, both EC and NC-CORR exhibit different warming rates, indicating a possible continuation of natural decadal variability. Although generally showing similar temperature changes, RCM projections show less warming and a smaller increase in melt days in the Larsen Ice Shelf compared to their respective driving fields. Regarding precipitation, there is a broad agreement among the simulations, indicating an increase in mean annual precipitation ( ∼ 5 to 10%). However, RCMs show some notable differences over the Larsen Ice Shelf where total precipitation decreases (for RACMO) and shows a small increase in rain frequency. We conclude that it seems still difficult to get consistent projections from GCMs for the Antarctic Peninsula as depicted in both RCM boundary conditions. In addition, dominant and common changes from the boundary conditions are largely evident in the RCM simulations. We argue that added value of RCM projections is driven by processes shaped by finer local details and different physics schemes that are introduced by RCMs, particularly over the Larsen Ice Shelf. 

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2. Ambient Factors Controlling the Wintertime Precipitation Distribution across Mountain Ranges in the Interior Western United States. Part II: Changes in Orographic Precipitation Distribution in a Pseudo–Global Warming Simulation

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0173.1  

   Jing, Xiaoqin ; Geerts, Bart ; Wang, Yonggang ; Liu, Changhai ( April 2019 , Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology)

   Two high-resolution (4 km) regional climate simulations over a 10-yr period are conducted to study the changes in wintertime precipitation distribution across mountain ranges in the interior western United States (IWUS) in a warming climate. One simulation represents the current climate, and another represents an ~2050 climate using a pseudo–global warming approach. The climate perturbations are derived from the ensemble mean of 15 global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). These simulations provide an estimate of average changes in wintertime orographic precipitation enhancement and finescale distribution across mountain ranges. The variability in these changes among CMIP5 models is quantified using statistical downscaling relations between orographic precipitation distribution and upstream conditions, developed in Part I. The CMIP5 guidance indicates a robust warming signal (~2 K) over the IWUS by ~2050 but minor changes in relative humidity and cloud-base height. The IWUS simulations reveal a widespread increase in precipitation on account of higher precipitation rates during winter storms in this warmer climate. This precipitation increase is most significant over the mountains rather than on the surrounding plains. The increase in precipitation rate is largely due to an increase in low-level cross-mountain moisture transport. The application of the statistical relations indicates that individual CMIP5 models disagree about the magnitude and distribution of orographic precipitation change in the IWUS, although most agree with the ensemble-mean-predicted orographic precipitation increase.

    

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3. Strong Warming Over the Antarctic Peninsula During Combined Atmospheric River and Foehn Events: Contribution of Shortwave Radiation and Turbulence

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038138  

   Zou, Xun ; Rowe, Penny M. ; Gorodetskaya, Irina ; Bromwich, David H. ; Lazzara, Matthew A. ; Cordero, Raul R. ; Zhang, Zhenhai ; Kawzenuk, Brian ; Cordeira, Jason M. ; Wille, Jonathan D. ; et al ( August 2023 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   The Antarctica Peninsula (AP) has experienced more frequent and intense surface melting recently, jeopardizing the stability of ice shelves and ultimately leading to ice loss. Among the key phenomena that can initiate surface melting are atmospheric rivers (ARs) and leeside foehn; the combined impact of ARs and foehn led to moderate surface warming over the AP in December 2018 and record‐breaking surface melting in February 2022. Focusing on the more intense 2022 case, this study uses high‐resolution Polar WRF simulations with advanced model configurations, Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica topography, and observed surface albedo to better understand the relationship between ARs and foehn and their impacts on surface warming. With an intense AR (AR3) intrusion during the 2022 event, weak low‐level blocking and heavy orographic precipitation on the upwind side resulted in latent heat release, which led to a more deep‐foehn like case. On the leeside, sensible heat flux associated with the foehn magnitude was the major driver during the night and the secondary contributor during the day due to a stationary orographic gravity wave. Downward shortwave radiation was enhanced via cloud clearance and dominated surface melting during the daytime, especially after the peak of the AR/foehn events. However, due to the complex terrain of the AP, ARs can complicate the foehn event by transporting extra moisture to the leeside via gap flows. During the peak of the 2022 foehn warming, cloud formation on the leeside hampered the downward shortwave radiation and slightly increased the downward longwave radiation.

    

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4. Moisture Sources and Pathways Determine Stable Isotope Signature of Himalayan Waters in Nepal

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022AV000735  

   Hassenruck‐Gudipati, Hima J. ; Andermann, Christoff ; Dee, Sylvia ; Brunello, Camilla F. ; Baidya, Krishna Pyari ; Sachse, Dirk ; Meyer, Hanno ; Hovius, Niels ( January 2023 , AGU Advances)

   The Himalayan mountain range produces one of the steepest and largest rainfall gradients on Earth, with >3 m/yr rainfall difference over a ∼100 km distance. The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) contributes more than 80% to the annual precipitation budget of the central Himalayas. The remaining 20% falls mainly during pre‐ISM season. Understanding the seasonal cycle and the transfer pathways of moisture from precipitation to the rivers is crucial for constraining water availability in a warming climate. However, the partitioning of moisture into the different storage systems such as snow, glacier, and groundwater and their relative contribution to river discharge throughout the year remains under‐constrained. Here, we present novel field data from the Kali Gandaki, a trans‐Himalayan river, and use 4‐year time series of river and rain water stable isotope composition (δ¹⁸O and δ²H values) as well as river discharge, satellite Global Precipitation Measurement amounts, and moisture source trajectories to constrain hydrological variability. We find that rainfall before the onset of the ISM is isotopically distinct and that ISM rain and groundwater have similar isotopic values. Our study lays the groundwork for using isotopic measurements to track changes in precipitation sources during the pre‐ISM to ISM transition in this key region of orographic precipitation. Specifically, we highlight the role of pre‐ISM precipitation, derived from the Gangetic plain, to define the seasonal river isotopic variability across the central Himalayas. Lastly, isotopic values across the catchment document the importance of a large well‐mixed groundwater reservoir supplying river discharge, especially during the non‐ISM season.

    

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5. Nonlinear Climate Responses to Increasing CO2 and Anthropogenic Aerosols Simulated by CESM1

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0195.1  

   Deng, Jiechun ; Dai, Aiguo ; Xu, Haiming ( December 2019 , Journal of Climate)

   Atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have increased simultaneously. Because of their opposite radiative effects, these increases may offset each other, which may lead to some nonlinear effects. Here the seasonal and regional characteristics of this nonlinear effect from the CO2 and AA forcings are investigated using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model. Results show that nonlinear effects are small in the global mean of the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, and precipitation. However, significant nonlinear effects exist over the Arctic and other extratropical regions during certain seasons. When both forcings are included, Arctic sea ice in September–November decreases less than the linear combination of the responses to the individual forcings due to a higher sea ice sensitivity to the CO2-induced warming than the sensitivity to the AA-induced cooling. This leads to less Arctic warming in the combined-forcing experiment due to reduced energy release from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Some nonlinear effects on precipitation in June–August are found over East Asia, with the northward-shifted East Asian summer rain belt to oppose the CO2 effect. In December–February, the aerosol loading over Europe in the combined-forcing experiment is higher than that due to the AA forcing, resulting from CO2-induced circulation changes. The changed aerosol loading results in regional thermal responses due to aerosol direct and indirect effects, weakening the combined changes of temperature and circulation. This study highlights the need to consider nonlinear effects from historical CO2 and AA forcings in seasonal and regional climate attribution analyses.

    

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