Gamma-ray burst GRB 211211A may have been the result of a neutron star merger at ≈350 Mpc. However, none of the LIGO–Virgo detectors were operating at the time. We show that the gravitational-wave signal from a GRB 211211A-like binary neutron star inspiral in the next LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA observing run (O4) would be below the conventional detection threshold, however a coincident gamma-ray burst observation would provide necessary information to claim a statistically significant multimessenger observation. We calculate that with O4 sensitivity, approximately $11{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of gamma-ray bursts within 600 Mpc will produce a confident association between the gravitational-wave binary neutron star inspiral signature and the prompt gamma-ray signature. This corresponds to a coincident detection rate of $0.22^{+8.3}_{-0.22}\,\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$, where the uncertainties are the 90 per cent confidence intervals arising from uncertainties in the absolute merger rate, beaming and jet-launching fractions. These increase to approximately $34{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ and $0.71^{+26.8}_{-0.70}\,\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$ with proposed O5 sensitivity. We show that the above numbers do not depend significantly on the number of gravitational-wave observatories operating with the specific sensitivity. That is, the number of confident joint gamma-ray burst and gravitational-wave detections is only marginally improved with two or three detectors operating compared to a single detector. It is therefore worth considering whether one detector with sufficient sensitivity (post O4) should remain in sky-watch mode at all times to elucidate the true nature of GRB 211211A-like events, a proposal we discuss in detail.
We present a comprehensive, configurable open-source software framework for estimating the rate of electromagnetic detection of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational wave detections of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We simulate the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run (O4) using current sensitivity and uptime values as well as using predicted sensitivites for the next observing run (O5). We find the number of discoverable kilonovae during LVK O4 to be ${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$ or ${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$, (at 90 per cent confidence) depending on the distribution of NS masses in coalescing binaries, with the number increasing by an order of magnitude during O5 to ${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$. Regardless of mass model, we predict at most five detectable KNe (at 95 per cent confidence) in O4. We also produce optical and near-infrared light curves that correspond to the physical properties of each merging system. We have collated important information for allocating observing resources for search and follow-up observations, including distributions of peak magnitudes in several broad-bands and time-scales for which specific facilities can detect each KN. The framework is easily adaptable, and new simulations can quickly be produced in response to updated information such as refined merger rates and NS mass distributions. Finally, we compare our suite of simulations to the thus-far completed portion of O4 (as of 2023, October 14), finding a median number of discoverable KNe of 0 and a 95 percentile upper limit of 2, consistent with no detections so far in O4.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10487445
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Volume:
- 528
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0035-8711
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 1109-1124
- Size(s):
- ["p. 1109-1124"]
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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