Abstract. Multi-meter sea level rise (SLR) is thought to be possible within the next few centuries, with most of the uncertainty originating from the Antarctic land ice contribution. One source of uncertainty relates to the ice sheet model initialization. Since ice sheets have a long response time (compared to other Earth system components such as the atmosphere), ice sheet model initialization methods can have significant impacts on how the ice sheet responds to future forcings. To assess this, we generated 25 different ice sheet spin-ups, using the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) at a 4 km resolution. During each spin-up, we varied two key parameters known to impact the sensitivity of the ice sheet to future forcing: one related to the sensitivity of the ice shelf melt rate to ocean thermal forcing (TF) and the other related to the basal friction. The spin-ups all nudge toward observed thickness and enforce a no-advance calving criterion, such that all final spin-up states resemble observations but differ in their melt and friction parameter settings. Each spin-up was then forced with future ocean thermal forcings from 13 different CMIP6 models under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)5-8.5 emissions scenarioand modern climatological surface mass balance data. Our results show that the effects of the ice sheet and ocean parameter settings used during the spin-up are capable of impacting multi-century future SLR predictions by as much as 2 m. By the end of this century, the effects of these choices are more modest, but still significant, with differences of up to 0.2 m of SLR. We have identified a combined ocean and ice parameter space that leads to widespread mass loss within 500 years (low friction and high melt rate sensitivity). To explore temperature thresholds, we also ran a synthetically forced CISM ensemble that is focused on the Amundsen region only. Given certain ocean and ice parameter choices, Amundsen mass loss can be triggered with thermal forcing anomalies between 1.5 and 2 ∘C relative to the spin-up.Our results emphasize the critical importance of considering ice sheet and ocean parameter choices during spin-up for SLR predictions and suggest the importance of including glacial isostatic adjustment in ice sheet simulations.
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This content will become publicly available on August 1, 2024
Basal debris of the NEEM ice core, Greenland: a window into sub-ice-sheet geology, basal ice processes and ice-sheet oscillations
We present new data from the debris-rich basal ice layers of the NEEM ice core (NW Greenland). Using mineralogical observations, SEM imagery, geochemical data from silicates (meteoric10Be, εNd,87Sr/86Sr) and organic material (C/N, δ13C), we characterize the source material, succession of previous glaciations and deglaciations and the paleoecological conditions during ice-free episodes. Meteoric10Be data and grain features indicate that the ice sheet interacted with paleosols and eroded fresh bedrock, leading to mixing in these debris-rich ice layers. Our analysis also identifies four successive stages in NW Greenland: (1) initial preglacial conditions, (2) glacial advance 1, (3) glacial retreat and interglacial conditions and (4) glacial advance 2 (current ice-sheet development). C/N and δ13C data suggest that deglacial environments favored the development of tundra and taiga ecosystems. These two successive glacial fluctuations observed at NEEM are consistent with those identified from the Camp Century core basal sediments over the last 3 Ma. Further inland, GRIP and GISP2 summit sites have remained glaciated more continuously than the western margin, with less intense ice-substratum interactions than those observed at NEEM.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1735676
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10490176
- Publisher / Repository:
- Journal of Glaciology
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Glaciology
- Volume:
- 69
- Issue:
- 276
- ISSN:
- 0022-1430
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1011 to 1029
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Grounding‐zone wedges (GZWs) mark the grounding terminus of flowing marine‐based ice streams and, in the presence of an ice shelf, the transition from grounded ice to floating ice. The morphology and stratigraphy of GZWs is predominantly constrained by seafloor bathymetry, seismic data, and sediment cores from deglaciated continental shelves; however, due to minimal constraints on GZW sedimentation processes, there remains a general lack of knowledge concerning the production of these landforms. Herein, outcrop observations are provided of GZWs from Whidbey Island in the Puget Lowlands (Washington State, USA). These features are characterized by prograded diamictons bounded by glacial unconformities, whereby the lower unconformity indicates glacial advance of the southern Cordilleran Ice Sheet and the upper unconformity indicates locally restricted ice advance during GZW growth; the consistent presence of an upper unconformity supports the hypothesis that GZWs facilitate ice advance during landform construction. Based on outcrop stratigraphy, GZW construction is dominated by sediment transport of deformation till and melt‐out of entrained basal debris at the grounding line. This material may be subsequently remobilized by debris flows. Additionally, there is evidence for subglacial meltwater discharge at the grounding line, as well as rhythmically bedded silt and sand, indicating possible tidal pumping at the grounding line. A series of GZWs on Whidbey Island provides evidence of punctuated ice sheet movement during retreat, rather than a rapid ice sheet lift‐off. The distance between adjacent GZWs of 102–103 m and the consistency in their size relative to modern ice stream grounding lines suggests that individual wedges formed over decades to centuries. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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ABSTRACT Stable isotopes of water (δ 18 O and δ 2 H) were measured in the debris-laden ice underlying an Antarctic blue ice moraine, and in adjoining Law Glacier in the central Transantarctic Mountains. Air bubble content and morphology were assessed in shallow ice core samples. Stable isotope measurements plot either on the meteoric waterline or are enriched from it. The data cluster in two groups: the ice underlying the moraine has a δ 2 H:δ 18 O slope of 5.35 ± 0.92; ice from adjoining portions of Law Glacier has a slope of 6.69 ± 1.39. This enrichment pattern suggests the moraine's underlying blue ice entrained sediment through refreezing processes acting in an open system. Glaciological conditions favorable to warm-based sediment entrainment occur 30–50 km upstream. Basal melting and refreezing are further evidenced by abundant vapor figures formed from internal melting of the ice crystals. Both the moraine ice and Law Glacier are sufficiently depleted of heavy isotopes that their ice cannot be sourced locally, but instead must be derived from far-field interior regions of the higher polar plateau. Modeled ice flow speeds suggest the ice must be at least 80 ka old, with Law Glacier's ice possibly dating to OIS 5 and moraine ice older still.more » « less
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null (Ed.)The Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica has long been considered the most vulnerable part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) because of the great water depth at the grounding line and the absence of substantial ice shelves. Glaciers in this configuration are thought to be susceptible to rapid or runaway retreat. Ice flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment is undergoing the most rapid changes of any sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet outside the Antarctic Peninsula, including changes caused by substantial grounding-line retreat over recent decades, as observed from satellite data. Recent models suggest that a threshold leading to the collapse of WAIS in this sector may have been already crossed and that much of the ice sheet could be lost even under relatively moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Drill cores from the Amundsen Sea provide tests of several key questions about controls on ice sheet stability. The cores offer a direct record of glacial history offshore from a drainage basin that receives ice exclusively from the WAIS, which allows clear comparisons between the WAIS history and low-latitude climate records. Today, warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is impinging onto the Amundsen Sea shelf and causing melting of the underside of the WAIS in most places. Reconstructions of past CDW intrusions can assess the ties between warm water upwelling and large-scale changes in past grounding-line positions. Carrying out these reconstructions offshore from the drainage basin that currently has the most substantial negative mass balance of ice anywhere in Antarctica is thus of prime interest to future predictions. The scientific objectives for this expedition are built on hypotheses about WAIS dynamics and related paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic conditions. The main objectives are 1. To test the hypothesis that WAIS collapses occurred during the Neogene and Quaternary and, if so, when and under which environmental conditions; 2. To obtain ice-proximal records of ice sheet dynamics in the Amundsen Sea that correlate with global records of ice-volume changes and proxy records for atmospheric and ocean temperatures; 3. To study the stability of a marine-based WAIS margin and how warm deep-water incursions control its position on the shelf; 4. To find evidence for earliest major grounded WAIS advances onto the middle and outer shelf; 5. To test the hypothesis that the first major WAIS growth was related to the uplift of the Marie Byrd Land dome. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 379 completed two very successful drill sites on the continental rise of the Amundsen Sea. Site U1532 is located on a large sediment drift, now called Resolution Drift, and penetrated to 794 m with 90% recovery. We collected almost-continuous cores from the Pleistocene through the Pliocene and into the late Miocene. At Site U1533, we drilled 383 m (70% recovery) into the more condensed sequence at the lower flank of the same sediment drift. The cores of both sites contain unique records that will enable study of the cyclicity of ice sheet advance and retreat processes as well as bottom-water circulation and water mass changes. In particular, Site U1532 revealed a sequence of Pliocene sediments with an excellent paleomagnetic record for high-resolution climate change studies of the previously sparsely sampled Pacific sector of the West Antarctic margin. Despite the drilling success at these sites, the overall expedition experienced three unexpected difficulties that affected many of the scientific objectives: 1. The extensive sea ice on the continental shelf prevented us from drilling any of the proposed shelf sites. 2. The drill sites on the continental rise were in the path of numerous icebergs of various sizes that frequently forced us to pause drilling or leave the hole entirely as they approached the ship. The overall downtime caused by approaching icebergs was 50% of our time spent on site. 3. An unfortunate injury to a member of the ship's crew cut the expedition short by one week. Recovery of core on the continental rise at Sites U1532 and U1533 cannot be used to precisely indicate the position of ice or retreat of the ice sheet on the shelf. However, these sediments contained in the cores offer a range of clues about past WAIS extent and retreat. At Sites U1532 and U1533, coarse-grained sediments interpreted to be ice-rafted debris (IRD) were identified throughout all recovered time periods. A dominant feature of the cores is recorded by lithofacies cyclicity, which is interpreted to represent relatively warmer periods variably characterized by higher microfossil abundance, greater bioturbation, and higher counts of IRD alternating with colder periods characterized by dominantly gray laminated terrigenous muds. Initial comparison of these cycles to published records from the region suggests that the units interpreted as records of warmer time intervals in the core tie to interglacial periods and the units interpreted as deposits of colder periods tie to glacial periods. The cores from the two drill sites recovered sediments of purely terrigenous origin intercalated or mixed with pelagic or hemipelagic deposits. In particular, Site U1533, which is located near a deep-sea channel originating from the continental slope, contains graded sands and gravel transported downslope from the shelf to the abyssal plain. The channel is likely the path of such sediments transported downslope by turbidity currents or other sediment-gravity flows. The association of lithologic facies at both sites predominantly reflects the interplay of downslope and contouritic sediment supply with occasional input of more pelagic sediment. Despite the lack of cores from the shelf, our records from the continental rise reveal the timing of glacial advances across the shelf and thus the existence of a continent-wide ice sheet in West Antarctica at least during longer time periods since the late Miocene. Cores from both sites contain abundant coarse-grained sediments and clasts of plutonic origin transported either by downslope processes or by ice rafting. If detailed provenance studies confirm our preliminary assessment that the origin of these samples is from the plutonic bedrock of Marie Byrd Land, their thermochronological record will potentially reveal timing and rates of denudation and erosion linked to crustal uplift. The chronostratigraphy of both sites enables the generation of a seismic sequence stratigraphy not only for the Amundsen Sea rise but also for the western Amundsen Sea along the Marie Byrd Land margin through a connecting network of seismic lines.more » « less
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The Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica has long been considered the most vulnerable part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) because of the great water depth at the grounding line, a subglacial bed seafloor deepening toward the interior of the continent, and the absence of substantial ice shelves. Glaciers in this configuration are thought to be susceptible to rapid or runaway retreat. Ice flowing into the Amundsen Sea Embayment is undergoing the most rapid changes of any sector of the Antarctic ice sheets outside the Antarctic Peninsula, including substantial grounding-line retreat over recent decades, as observed from satellite data. Recent models suggest that a threshold leading to the collapse of WAIS in this sector may have been already crossed and that much of the ice sheet could be lost even under relatively moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Drill cores from the Amundsen Sea provide tests of several key questions about controls on ice sheet stability. The cores offer a direct offshore record of glacial history in a sector that is exclusively influenced by ice draining the WAIS, which allows clear comparisons between the WAIS history and low-latitude climate records. Today, relatively warm (modified) Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is impinging onto the Amundsen Sea shelf and causing melting under ice shelves and at the grounding line of the WAIS in most places. Reconstructions of past CDW intrusions can assess the ties between warm water upwelling and large-scale changes in past grounding-line positions. Carrying out these reconstructions offshore from the drainage basin that currently has the most substantial negative mass balance of ice anywhere in Antarctica is thus of prime interest to future predictions. The scientific objectives for this expedition are built on hypotheses about WAIS dynamics and related paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic conditions. The main objectives are: 1. To test the hypothesis that WAIS collapses occurred during the Neogene and Quaternary and, if so, when and under which environmental conditions; 2. To obtain ice-proximal records of ice sheet dynamics in the Amundsen Sea that correlate with global records of ice-volume changes and proxy records for atmospheric and ocean temperatures; 3. To study the stability of a marine-based WAIS margin and how warm deepwater incursions control its position on the shelf; 4. To find evidence for the earliest major grounded WAIS advances onto the middle and outer shelf; 5. To test the hypothesis that the first major WAIS growth was related to the uplift of the Marie Byrd Land dome. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 379 completed two very successful drill sites on the continental rise of the Amundsen Sea. Site U1532 is located on a large sediment drift, now called the Resolution Drift, and it penetrated to 794 m with 90% recovery. We collected almost-continuous cores from recent age through the Pleistocene and Pliocene and into the upper Miocene. At Site U1533, we drilled 383 m (70% recovery) into the more condensed sequence at the lower flank of the same sediment drift. The cores of both sites contain unique records that will enable study of the cyclicity of ice sheet advance and retreat processes as well as ocean-bottom water circulation and water mass changes. In particular, Site U1532 revealed a sequence of Pliocene sediments with an excellent paleomagnetic record for high-resolution climate change studies of the previously sparsely sampled Pacific sector of the West Antarctic margin. Despite the drilling success at these sites, the overall expedition experienced three unexpected difficulties that affected many of the scientific objectives: 1. The extensive sea ice on the continental shelf prevented us from drilling any of the proposed shelf sites. 2. The drill sites on the continental rise were in the path of numerous icebergs of various sizes that frequently forced us to pause drilling or leave the hole entirely as they approached the ship. The overall downtime caused by approaching icebergs was 50% of our time spent on site. 3. A medical evacuation cut the expedition short by 1 week. Recovery of core on the continental rise at Sites U1532 and U1533 cannot be used to indicate the extent of grounded ice on the shelf or, thus, of its retreat directly. However, the sediments contained in these cores offer a range of clues about past WAIS extent and retreat. At Sites U1532 and U1533, coarse-grained sediments interpreted to be ice-rafted debris (IRD) were identified throughout all recovered time periods. A dominant feature of the cores is recorded by lithofacies cyclicity, which is interpreted to represent relatively warmer periods variably characterized by sediments with higher microfossil abundance, greater bioturbation, and higher IRD concentrations alternating with colder periods characterized by dominantly gray laminated terrigenous muds. Initial comparison of these cycles to published late Quaternary records from the region suggests that the units interpreted to be records of warmer time intervals in the core tie to global interglacial periods and the units interpreted to be deposits of colder periods tie to global glacial periods. Cores from the two drill sites recovered sediments of dominantly terrigenous origin intercalated or mixed with pelagic or hemipelagic deposits. In particular, Site U1533, which is located near a deep-sea channel originating from the continental slope, contains graded silts, sands, and gravels transported downslope from the shelf to the rise. The channel is likely the pathway of these sediments transported by turbidity currents and other gravitational downslope processes. The association of lithologic facies at both sites predominantly reflects the interplay of downslope and contouritic sediment supply with occasional input of more pelagic sediment. Despite the lack of cores from the shelf, our records from the continental rise reveal the timing of glacial advances across the shelf and thus the existence of a continent-wide ice sheet in West Antarctica during longer time periods since at least the late Miocene. Cores from both sites contain abundant coarse-grained sediments and clasts of plutonic origin transported either by downslope processes or by ice rafting. If detailed provenance studies confirm our preliminary assessment that the origin of these samples is from the plutonic bedrock of Marie Byrd Land, their thermochronological record will potentially reveal timing and rates of denudation and erosion linked to crustal uplift. The chronostratigraphy of both sites enables the generation of a seismic sequence stratigraphy for the entire Amundsen Sea continental rise, spanning the area offshore from the Amundsen Sea Embayment westward along the Marie Byrd Land margin to the easternmost Ross Sea through a connecting network of seismic lines.more » « less
