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Summary Precision medicine is an emerging scientific topic for disease treatment and prevention that takes into account individual patient characteristics. It is an important direction for clinical research, and many statistical methods have been proposed recently. One of the primary goals of precision medicine is to obtain an optimal individual treatment rule (ITR), which can help make decisions on treatment selection according to each patient's specific characteristics. Recently, outcome weighted learning (OWL) has been proposed to estimate such an optimal ITR in a binary treatment setting by maximizing the expected clinical outcome. However, for ordinal treatment settings, such as individualized dose finding, it is unclear how to use OWL. In this article, we propose a new technique for estimating ITR with ordinal treatments. In particular, we propose a data duplication technique with a piecewise convex loss function. We establish Fisher consistency for the resulting estimated ITR under certain conditions, and obtain the convergence and risk bound properties. Simulated examples and an application to a dataset from a type 2 diabetes mellitus observational study demonstrate the highly competitive performance of the proposed method compared to existing alternatives.
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Estimation and optimization of composite outcomes
There is tremendous interest in precision medicine as a means to improve patient out- comes by tailoring treatment to individual characteristics. An individualized treatment rule formalizes precision medicine as a map from patient information to a recommended treatment. A treatment rule is defined to be optimal if it maximizes the mean of a scalar outcome in a population of interest, e.g., symptom reduction. However, clinical and intervention scientists often seek to balance multiple and possibly competing outcomes, e.g., symptom reduction and the risk of an adverse event. One approach to precision medicine in this setting is to elicit a composite outcome which balances all competing outcomes; unfortunately, eliciting a composite outcome directly from patients is difficult without a high-quality instrument, and an expert-derived composite outcome may not account for heterogeneity in patient preferences. We propose a new paradigm for the study of precision medicine using observational data that relies solely on the assumption that clinicians are approximately (i.e., imperfectly) making decisions to maximize individual patient utility. Estimated composite outcomes are subsequently used to construct an estimator of an individualized treatment rule which maximizes the mean of patient-specific composite out- comes. The estimated composite outcomes and estimated optimal individualized treatment rule provide new insights into patient preference heterogeneity, clinician behavior, and the value of precision medicine in a given domain. We derive inference procedures for the pro- posed estimators under mild conditions and demonstrate their finite sample performance through a suite of simulation experiments and an illustrative application to data from a study of bipolar depression.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2136034
- PAR ID:
- 10491510
- Publisher / Repository:
- JMLR
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Machine Learning Research
- ISSN:
- 1533-7928
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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