An official website of the United States government
Abstract A process‐oriented diagnostic (POD) is introduced to measure the thermodynamic sensitivity of convection in climate models. The physical basis for this POD is the observed tropical precipitation‐buoyancy relationship. Fast timescale precipitation and thermodynamic profiles over oceans are POD inputs; these are used to evaluate model precipitation sensitivities to lower‐tropospheric measures of subsaturation (SUBSATL) and undilute conditional instability. The POD is used to diagnose 24 coupled model inter‐comparison project phase six (CMIP6) models. Half the diagnosed models exhibit SUBSATLsensitivity close to observed, while six models are excessively sensitive. Parameter perturbation experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5) support the physical basis for the POD. Increasing entrainment increases the CAM5 precipitation SUBSATLsensitivity. Switching off the convective scheme or modifying the convective trigger to be oversensitive to moisture reproduces the excessive SUBSATLsensitivity seen among CMIP6 models. Models with excessive SUBSATLsensitivities have precipitating mean states closer to grid‐scale saturation and likely support more grid‐scale convection.
more »
« less
The Physics behind Precipitation Onset Bias in CMIP6 Models: The Pseudo-Entrainment Diagnostic and Trade-Offs between Lapse Rate and Humidity
Abstract Conditional instability and the buoyancy of plumes drive moist convection but have a variety of representations in model convective schemes. Vertical thermodynamic structure information from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and reanalysis (ERA5), satellite-derived precipitation (TRMM3b42), and diagnostics relevant for plume buoyancy are used to assess climate models. Previous work has shown that CMIP6 models represent moist convective processes more accurately than their CMIP5 counterparts. However, certain biases in convective onset remain pervasive among generations of CMIP modeling efforts. We diagnose these biases in a cohort of nine CMIP6 models with subdaily output, assessing conditional instability in profiles of equivalent potential temperature,θe, and saturation equivalent potential temperature,θes, in comparison to a plume model with different mixing assumptions. Most models capture qualitative aspects of theθesvertical structure, including a substantial decrease with height in the lower free troposphere associated with the entrainment of subsaturated air. We define a “pseudo-entrainment” diagnostic that combines subsaturation and aθesmeasure of conditional instability similar to what entrainment would produce under the small-buoyancy approximation. This captures the trade-off between largerθeslapse rates (entrainment of dry air) and small subsaturation (permits positive buoyancy despite high entrainment). This pseudo-entrainment diagnostic is also a reasonable indicator of the critical value of integrated buoyancy for precipitation onset. Models with poorθe/θesstructure (those using variants of the Tiedtke scheme) or low entrainment runs of CAM5, and models with low subsaturation, such as NASA-GISS, lie outside the observational range in this diagnostic.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1936810
- PAR ID:
- 10492235
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 37
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 2013-2033
- Size(s):
- p. 2013-2033
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract As a follow-on to a previous study on secondary eyewall formation (SEF) in a simulation of Hurricane Matthew (2016), this study investigates the emergence and maintenance of an asymmetric rainband updraft region that leads to an SEF event. Under moderate deep-layer environmental wind shear, the storm develops a quasi-stationary rainband complex with intense, persistent updrafts in its left-of-shear, downwind end. Using a budget of equivalent potential temperatureθE, it is demonstrated that the maintenance of the left-of-shear updraft is aided by a mesoscale cold pool induced by rainband stratiform cooling which interacts with the storm’s moist envelope of high-θEair. An extended period of destabilization occurs through differential horizontal advection ofθEin the boundary layer, which continuously replenishes the moist instability that would otherwise be depleted by the updrafts. The initial lifting of the updraft is found to be the result of buoyancy advection resulting from the density contrast between the surface cold pool and the inner-core high-θEair. A potential vorticity (PV) budget analysis shows that these left-of-shear updrafts generate low- to midlevel PV through diabatic heating and boundary layer processes, which shapes the local PV enhancement and propagates cyclonically downwind. Meanwhile, in the mid- to upper levels, eddy PV flux convergence and PV generation continue to occur in the stratiform precipitation extending downwind into the upshear quadrants, which substantially increases the azimuthal mean PV at the radius of the developing secondary eyewall and marks the occurrence of the axisymmetrization process.more » « less
-
Abstract A set of diagnostics based on simple, statistical relationships between precipitation and the thermodynamic environment in observations is implemented to assess phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model behavior with respect to precipitation. Observational data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) permanent field observational sites are augmented with satellite observations of precipitation and temperature as an observational baseline. A robust relationship across observational datasets between column water vapor (CWV) and precipitation, in which conditionally averaged precipitation exhibits a sharp pickup at some critical CWV value, provides a useful convective onset diagnostic for climate model comparison. While a few models reproduce an appropriate precipitation pickup, most models begin their pickup at too low CWV and the increase in precipitation with increasing CWV is too weak. Convective transition statistics compiled in column relative humidity (CRH) partially compensate for model temperature biases—although imperfectly since the temperature dependence is more complex than that of column saturation. Significant errors remain in individual models and weak pickups are generally not improved. The conditional-average precipitation as a function of CRH can be decomposed into the product of the probability of raining and mean precipitation during raining times (conditional intensity). The pickup behavior is primarily dependent on the probability of raining near the transition and on the conditional intensity at higher CRH. Most models roughly capture the CRH dependence of these two factors. However, compensating biases often occur: model conditional intensity that is too low at a given CRH is compensated in part by excessive probability of precipitation.more » « less
-
Abstract Climate models project tropical warming is amplified aloft relative to the surface in response to increased CO2. Here we show moist adiabatic adjustment overpredicts the multimodel mean 300 hPa temperature response by 16.6–25.3% across the CMIP5 model hierarchy. We show three mechanisms influence overprediction: climatological large‐scale circulation, direct effect of increased CO2, and convective entrainment. Accounting for the presence of a climatological large‐scale circulation and the direct effect of CO2reduces the CMIP5 multimodel mean overprediction by 0.7–7.2% and 2.8–3.9%, respectively, but does not eliminate it. To quantify the influence of entrainment, we vary the Tokioka parameter in aquaplanet simulations. When entrainment is decreased by decreasing the Tokioka parameter from 0.1 to 0, overprediction decreases by 9.6% and 10.4% with and without a large‐scale circulation, respectively. The sensitivity of overprediction to climatological entrainment rate in the aquaplanet mostly follows the predictions of zero‐buoyancy bulk‐plume and spectral‐plume models.more » « less
-
Abstract The tropical tropospheric temperature is close to but typically cooler than that of the moist adiabat. The negative temperature deviation from the moist adiabat manifests a C-shape profile and is projected to increase and stretch upward under warming in both comprehensive climate models and idealized radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations. The increased temperature deviation corresponds to a larger convective available potential energy (CAPE) under warming. The extreme convective updraft velocity in RCE increases correspondingly but at a smaller fractional rate than that of CAPE. A conceptual model for the tropical temperature deviation and convective updraft velocities is formulated to understand these features. The model builds on the previous zero-buoyancy model but replaces the bulk zero-buoyancy plume by a spectrum of entraining plumes that have distinct entrainment rates and are positively buoyant until their levels of neutral buoyancy. Besides the negative temperature deviation and its increasing magnitude with warming, this allows the spectral plume model to further predict the C-shape profile as well as its upward stretch with warming. By representing extreme convective updrafts as weakly entraining plumes, the model is able to reproduce the smaller fractional increase in convective velocities with warming as compared to that of CAPE. The smaller fractional increase is mainly caused by the upward stretch in the temperature deviation profile with warming, which reduces the ratio between the integrated plume buoyancy and CAPE. The model thus provides a useful tool for understanding the tropical temperature profile and convective updraft velocities.more » « less
