More Like this

1. How Long is a Resilience Event in a Transmission System?: Metrics and Models Driven by Utility Data

   https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2023.3292328  

   Dobson, Ian; Ekisheva, Svetlana (March 2024, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems)

   We discuss ways to measure duration in a power transmission system resilience event by modeling outage and re- store processes from utility data. We introduce novel Poisson pro- cess models that describe how resilience events progress and verify that they are typical using extensive outage data collected across North America. Some usual duration metrics show impractically high statistical variability, and we recommend new duration met- rics that perform better. Moreover, the Poisson process models have parameters that can be estimated from observed network data under different weather conditions, and are promising new models of typical resilience events. 

   more » « less
2. Assessing Transmission Resilience during Extreme Weather with Outage and Restore Processes

   https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS53380.2022.9810645  

   Ekisheva, Svetlana; Dobson, Ian; Rieder, Rachel; Norris, Jack (June 2022, Probability Methods Applied to Power Systems)

   We automatically extract resilience events and novel outage and restore processes from standard transmission utility detailed outage data. This new processing is applied to the outage data collected in NERC’s Transmission Availability Data System to introduce and analyze statistics that quantify resilience of the transmission system against extreme weather events. These metrics (such as outage rate and duration, number of elements outaged, rated capacity outaged, restore duration, maximum simultaneous outages, and element-days lost) are calculated for all large weather-related events on the North American transmission system from 2015 to 2020 and then by extreme weather type that caused them such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter storms. Finally, we study how performance of the system changed with respect to the resilience metrics by season and year. 

   more » « less
3. Extracting Resilience Statistics from Utility Data in Distribution Grids

   https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM41954.2020.9281596  

   Carrington, Nichelle'Le K.; Ma, Shanshan; Dobson, Ian; Wang, Zhaoyu (August 2020, IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting)

   It is useful to quantify electrical distribution system resilience based on historical performance. This paper systematically extracts resilience curves from historical utility outage data, extracts resilience metrics such as duration, average recovery rates, and maximum number of simultaneously outaged components, and examines the statistics of these resilience metrics for small, medium, and large events. The resilience metrics and their typical variabilities are expected to be helpful in predicting and bounding the likely outcomes of future resilience events. For example, we can calculate the restoration time that will be achieved with 95% confidence. 

   more » « less
4. Grid Restoration After Extreme Weather Events

   https://doi.org/10.1109/ISGTEUROPE56780.2023.10407350  

   Ekisheva, Svetlana; Pratt, Donna K.; Kachadurian, Maria; Martin, William G.; Norris, Jack; Dobson, Ian (October 2023, Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe)

   The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) tracks the restoration of the North American transmission system after events which test the grid resilience and reliability. Quantifying and analyzing these historical events is a foundation for studying and maintaining resilience. After showing that the largest recent events are dominated by extreme weather events, the paper analyzes these events by extracting the restore process for each event and defining, calculating, and discussing various metrics that quantify the restoration. The metrics include a duration metric of time to substantial restoration. In 2021, Hurricane Ida was the largest resilience event in the North American system. A case study of Hurricane Ida analyzes the generator outages and restoration as well as the transmission system outages and restoration. 

   more » « less
5. An Operational Resilience Metric for Modern Power Distribution Systems

   https://doi.org/10.1109/QRS-C51114.2020.00065  

   Phillips, Tyler; McJunkin, Timothy; Rieger, Craig; Gardner, John; Mehrpouyan, Hoda (December 2020, 2020 IEEE 20th International Conference on Software Quality, Reliability and Security Companion (QRS-C))

   null (Ed.)

   The electrical power system is the backbone of our nations critical infrastructure. It has been designed to withstand single component failures based on a set of reliability metrics which have proven acceptable during normal operating conditions. However, in recent years there has been an increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Many have resulted in widespread long-term power outages, proving reliability metrics do not provide adequate energy security. As a result, researchers have focused their efforts resilience metrics to ensure efficient operation of power systems during extreme events. A resilient system has the ability to resist, adapt, and recover from disruptions. Therefore, resilience has demonstrated itself as a promising concept for currently faced challenges in power distribution systems. In this work, we propose an operational resilience metric for modern power distribution systems. The metric is based on the aggregation of system assets adaptive capacity in real and reactive power. This metric gives information to the magnitude and duration of a disturbance the system can withstand. We demonstrate resilience metric in a case study under normal operation and during a power contingency on a microgrid. In the future, this information can be used by operators to make more informed decisions based on system resilience in an effort to prevent power outages. 

   more » « less