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1. Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO ₂ Sink and CH ₄ and N ₂ O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top‐Down and Bottom‐Up Methods

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GB007969  

   Hugelius, G; Ramage, J; Burke, E; Chatterjee, A; Smallman, T L; Aalto, T; Bastos, A; Biasi, C; Canadell, J G; Chandra, N; et al (October 2024, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

   Abstract Large stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present‐day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom‐up (data‐driven upscaling and process‐based models) and top‐down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom‐up approaches estimate higher land‐to‐atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom‐up and top‐down approaches show a sink of CO₂in natural ecosystems (bottom‐up: −29 (−709, 455), top‐down: −587 (−862, −312) Tg CO₂‐C yr⁻¹) and sources of CH₄(bottom‐up: 38 (22, 53), top‐down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH₄‐C yr⁻¹) and N₂O (bottom‐up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top‐down: 0.09 (−0.19, 0.37) Tg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP‐100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP‐20), the region is a net GHG source because CH₄dominates the total forcing. The net CO₂sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO₂emissions as well as CH₄emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N₂O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process‐based models and the compilation of process‐model ensembles for CH₄and N₂O. Discrepancies between bottom‐up and top‐down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well‐distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques. 

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2. Balancing Non‐CO ₂ GHG Emissions and Soil Carbon Change in U.S. Rice Paddies: A Retrospective Meta‐Analysis and Agricultural Modeling Study

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023AV001052  

   Zhang, Jingting; Tian, Hanqin; You, Yongfa; Liang, Xin‐Zhong; Ouyang, Zutao; Pan, Naiqing; Pan, Shufen (February 2024, AGU Advances)

   Abstract U.S. rice paddies, critical for food security, are increasingly contributing to non‐CO₂greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions like methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). Yet, the full assessment of GHG balance, considering trade‐offs between soil organic carbon (SOC) change and non‐CO₂GHG emissions, is lacking. Integrating an improved agroecosystem model with a meta‐analysis of multiple field studies, we found that U.S. rice paddies were the rapidly growing net GHG emission sources, increased 138% from 3.7 ± 1.2 Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹in the 1960s to 8.9 ± 2.7 Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹in the 2010s. CH₄, as the primary contributor, accounted for 10.1 ± 2.3 Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹in the 2010s, alongside a notable rise in N₂O emissions by 0.21 ± 0.03 Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹. SOC change could offset 14.0% (1.45 ± 0.46 Tg CO₂eq yr⁻¹) of the climate‐warming effects of soil non‐CO₂GHG emissions in the 2010s. This escalation in net GHG emissions is linked to intensified land use, increased atmospheric CO₂, higher synthetic nitrogen fertilizer and manure application, and climate change. However, no/reduced tillage and non‐continuous irrigation could reduce net soil GHG emissions by approximately 10% and non‐CO₂GHG emissions by about 39%, respectively. Despite the rise in net GHG emissions, the cost of achieving higher rice yields has decreased over time, with an average of 0.84 ± 0.18 kg CO₂eq ha⁻¹emitted per kilogram of rice produced in the 2010s. The study suggests the potential for significant GHG emission reductions to achieve climate‐friendly rice production in the U.S. through optimizing the ratio of synthetic N to manure fertilizer, reducing tillage, and implementing intermittent irrigation. 

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3. Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high‐latitude net ecosystem carbon budget

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16553  

   Watts, Jennifer D.; Farina, Mary; Kimball, John S.; Schiferl, Luke D.; Liu, Zhihua; Arndt, Kyle A.; Zona, Donatella; Ballantyne, Ashley; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Parmentier, Frans‐Jan W.; et al (January 2023, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Arctic‐boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic‐boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003–2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_eco), net ecosystem CO₂exchange (NEE;R_eco − GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH₄) emissions for the Arctic‐boreal zone using a satellite data‐driven process‐model for northern ecosystems (TCFM‐Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM‐Arctic to obtain daily 1‐km²flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan‐Arctic‐boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of −850 Tg CO₂‐C year⁻¹. Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH₄emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH₄) were estimated at 35 Tg CH₄‐C year⁻¹. Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high‐latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site‐to‐regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change. 

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4. Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5  

   Virkkala, Anna-Maria; Rogers, Brendan M; Watts, Jennifer D; Arndt, Kyle A; Potter, Stefano; Wargowsky, Isabel; Schuur, Edward_A G; See, Craig R; Mauritz, Marguerite; Boike, Julia; et al (February 2025, Nature Climate Change)

   Abstract The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO₂fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO₂sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −14 Tg C yr⁻¹;P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO₂source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO₂sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −9 Tg C yr⁻¹), and the permafrost region becomes CO₂neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −3 Tg C yr⁻¹), underscoring the importance of fire in this region. 

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5. Net greenhouse gas balance in U.S. croplands: How can soils be part of the climate solution?

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17109  

   You, Yongfa; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Shi, Hao; Lu, Chaoqun; Batchelor, William_D; Cheng, Bo; Hui, Dafeng; Kicklighter, David; Liang, Xin‐Zhong; et al (December 2023, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract Agricultural soils play a dual role in regulating the Earth's climate by releasing or sequestering carbon dioxide (CO₂) in soil organic carbon (SOC) and emitting non‐CO₂greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄). To understand how agricultural soils can play a role in climate solutions requires a comprehensive assessment of net soil GHG balance (i.e., sum of SOC‐sequestered CO₂and non‐CO₂GHG emissions) and the underlying controls. Herein, we used a model‐data integration approach to understand and quantify how natural and anthropogenic factors have affected the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of the net soil GHG balance in U.S. croplands during 1960–2018. Specifically, we used the dynamic land ecosystem model for regional simulations and used field observations of SOC sequestration rates and N₂O and CH₄emissions to calibrate, validate, and corroborate model simulations. Results show that U.S. agricultural soils sequestered Tg CO₂‐C year⁻¹in SOC (at a depth of 3.5 m) during 1960–2018 and emitted Tg N₂O‐N year⁻¹and Tg CH₄‐C year⁻¹, respectively. Based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100‐year time horizon), the estimated national net GHG emission rate from agricultural soils was Tg CO₂‐eq year⁻¹, with the largest contribution from N₂O emissions. The sequestered SOC offset ~28% of the climate‐warming effects resulting from non‐CO₂GHG emissions, and this offsetting effect increased over time. Increased nitrogen fertilizer use was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in net GHG emissions during 1960–2018, explaining ~47% of total changes. In contrast, reduced cropland area, the adoption of agricultural conservation practices (e.g., reduced tillage), and rising atmospheric CO₂levels attenuated net GHG emissions from U.S. croplands. Improving management practices to mitigate N₂O emissions represents the biggest opportunity for achieving net‐zero emissions in U.S. croplands. Our study highlights the importance of concurrently quantifying SOC‐sequestered CO₂and non‐CO₂GHG emissions for developing effective agricultural climate change mitigation measures. 

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