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Unprecedented precipitation deficits in the 2022–2023 growing season across the primary wheat-producing region in the United States caused delays in winter wheat emergence and poor crop growth. Using an integrated approach, we quantitatively unraveled a 37% reduction in wheat production as being attributable to both per–harvested acre yield loss and severe crop abandonment, reminiscent of the Dust Bowl years in the 1930s. We used random forest machine learning and game theory analytics to show that the main driver of yield loss was spring drought, whereas fall drought dominated abandonment rates. Furthermore, results revealed, across the US winter wheat belt, the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), increased abandonment rates compared to the El Niño phase. These findings underscore the necessity of simultaneously addressing crop abandonment and yield decline to stabilize wheat production amid extreme climatic conditions and provide a holistic understanding of global-scale ENSO dynamics on wheat production.
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U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events
Climate extremes cause significant winter wheat yield loss and can cause much greater impacts than single extremes in isolation when multiple extremes occur simultaneously. Here we show that compound hot-dry-windy events (HDW) significantly increased in the U.S. Great Plains from 1982 to 2020. These HDW events were the most impactful drivers for wheat yield loss, accounting for a 4% yield reduction per 10 h of HDW during heading to maturity. Current HDW trends are associated with yield reduction rates of up to 0.09 t ha−1per decade and HDW variations are atmospheric-bridged with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We quantify the “yield shock”, which is spatially distributed, with the losses in severely HDW-affected areas, presumably the same areas affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our findings indicate that compound HDW, which traditional risk assessments overlooked, have significant implications for the U.S. winter wheat production and beyond.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1826820
- PAR ID:
- 10501222
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Portfolio
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 7233
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34947-6
