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Abstract Observed surface temperature trends over recent decades are characterized by (a) intensified warming in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool and slight cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific, consistent with Walker circulation strengthening, and (b) Southern Ocean cooling. In contrast, state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate models generally project enhanced warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Walker circulation weakening, and Southern Ocean warming. Here we investigate the ability of 16 climate model large ensembles to reproduce observed sea‐surface temperature and sea‐level pressure trends over 1979–2020 through a combination of externally forced climate change and internal variability. We find large‐scale differences between observed and modeled trends that are very unlikely (<5% probability) to occur due to internal variability as represented in models. Disparate trends in the ratio of Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool to tropical‐mean warming, which shows little multi‐decadal variability in models, hint that model biases in the response to historical forcing constitute part of the discrepancy.
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The 1991–2020 sea surface temperature normals
Abstract The 1991–2020 climate normals for sea surface temperature (SST) are computed based on the NOAA Daily Optimum Interpolation SST dataset. This is the first time that high‐resolution SST normals with global coverage can be achieved in the satellite SST era. Normals are one of the fundamental parameters in describing and understanding weather and climate and provide decision‐making information to industry, public, and scientific communities. This product suite includes SST mean, standard deviation, count and extreme parameters at daily, monthly, seasonal and annual time scales on 0.25° spatial grids. The main feature of the SST mean state revealed by the normals is that in the Tropics, the Indo‐Pacific Ocean is dominated by the warm pool (SST ≥ 28°C) while the eastern Pacific is characterized by the cold tongue (SST ≤ 24°C); in the midlatitudes, SSTs are in zonal patterns with high meridional gradients. Daily SST standard deviations are generally small (<1.0°C) except in frontal zones (>1.5°C) mostly associated with ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio and Equatorial Currents. Compared to the 1982–2011 climatology, the 1991–2020 mean SSTs increased over most global areas but obvious cooling is seen in the Southern Ocean, eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic warming hole. The Indo‐Pacific warm pool (IPWP) is found to have strengthened in both intensity and coverage since 1982–2011. By a count parameter criterion of ≥300 days annually with SST ≥ 28°C, the IPWP coverage increased 33% from 1982–2011 to 1991–2020. The global mean SST of 1991–2020 is warmer than that of 1982–2011, and the warming rate over 1991–2020 doubles that over 1901–2020.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1948952
- PAR ID:
- 10507993
- Publisher / Repository:
- Royal Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Climatology
- Edition / Version:
- 1
- Volume:
- 44
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0899-8418
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 668 to 685
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- sea surface temperature climate variability remote sensing
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: 22mb Other: pdf
- Size(s):
- 22mb
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8350
