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We articulate the design imperatives for machine learning based digital twins for nonlinear dynamical systems, which can be used to monitor the “health” of the system and anticipate future collapse. The fundamental requirement for digital twins of nonlinear dynamical systems is dynamical evolution: the digital twin must be able to evolve its dynamical state at the present time to the next time step without further state input—a requirement that reservoir computing naturally meets. We conduct extensive tests using prototypical systems from optics, ecology, and climate, where the respective specific examples are a chaotic CO2 laser system, a model of phytoplankton subject to seasonality, and the Lorenz-96 climate network. We demonstrate that, with a single or parallel reservoir computer, the digital twins are capable of a variety of challenging forecasting and monitoring tasks. Our digital twin has the following capabilities: (1) extrapolating the dynamics of the target system to predict how it may respond to a changing dynamical environment, e.g., a driving signal that it has never experienced before, (2) making continual forecasting and monitoring with sparse real-time updates under non-stationary external driving, (3) inferring hidden variables in the target system and accurately reproducing/predicting their dynamical evolution, (4) adapting to external driving of different waveform, and (5) extrapolating the global bifurcation behaviors to network systems of different sizes. These features make our digital twins appealing in applications, such as monitoring the health of critical systems and forecasting their potential collapse induced by environmental changes or perturbations. Such systems can be an infrastructure, an ecosystem, or a regional climate system.
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Change Management using Generative Modeling on Digital Twins
A key challenge faced by small and medium-sized business entities is securely managing software updates and changes. Specifically, with rapidly evolving cybersecurity threats, changes/updates/patches to software systems are necessary to stay ahead of emerging threats and are often mandated by regulators or statutory authorities to counter these. However, security patches/updates require stress testing before they can be released in the production system. Stress testing in production environments is risky and poses security threats. Large businesses usually have a non-production environment where such changes can be made and tested before being released into production. Smaller businesses do not have such facilities. In this work, we show how “digital twins”, especially for a mix of IT and IoT environments, can be created on the cloud. These digital twins act as a non-production environment where changes can be applied, and the system can be securely tested before patch release. Additionally, the non-production digital twin can be used to collect system data and run stress tests on the environment, both manually and automatically. In this paper, we show how using a small sample of real data/interactions, Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) models can be used to generate testing scenarios to check for points of failure.
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- PAR ID:
- 10508485
- Publisher / Repository:
- IEEE
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics
- ISSN:
- 2837-6617
- ISBN:
- 979-8-3503-3773-0
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 6
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Location:
- Charlotte, NC, USA
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/ISI58743.2023.10297181
