Abstract Rapid environmental change poses unprecedented challenges to species persistence. To understand the extent that continued change could have, genomic offset methods have been used to forecast maladaptation of natural populations to future environmental change. However, while their use has become increasingly common, little is known regarding their predictive performance across a wide array of realistic and challenging scenarios. Here, we evaluate the performance of currently available offset methods (gradientForest, the Risk‐Of‐Non‐Adaptedness, redundancy analysis with and without structure correction and LFMM2) using an extensive set of simulated data sets that vary demography, adaptive architecture and the number and spatial patterns of adaptive environments. For each data set, we train models using eitherall,adaptiveorneutralmarker sets and evaluate performance using in silico common gardens by correlating known fitness with projected offset. Using over 4,849,600 of such evaluations, we find that (1) method performance is largely due to the degree of local adaptation across the metapopulation (LA), (2)adaptivemarker sets provide minimal performance advantages, (3) performance within the species range is variable across gardens and declines when offset models are trained using additional non‐adaptive environments and (4) despite (1) performance declines more rapidly in globally novel climates (i.e. a climate without an analogue within the species range) for metapopulations with greaterLAthan lesserLA. We discuss the implications of these results for management, assisted gene flow and assisted migration.
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The spatial scale of adaptation in a native annual plant and its implications for responses to climate change
Spatial patterns of adaptation provide important insights into agents of selection and expected responses of populations to climate change. Robust inference into the spatial scale of adaptation can be gained through reciprocal transplant experiments that combine multiple source populations and common gardens. Here, we examine the spatial scale of local adaptation of the North American annual plant common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, using data from four common gardens with 22 source populations sampled from across a ∼1200 km latitudinal gradient within the native range. We found evidence of local adaptation at the northernmost common garden, but maladaptation at the two southern gardens, where more southern source populations outperformed local populations. Overall, the spatial scale of adaptation was large—at the three gardens where distance between source populations and gardens explained variation in fitness, it took an average of 820 km for fitness to decline to 50% of its predicted maximum. Taken together, these results suggest that climate change has already caused maladaptation, especially across the southern portion of the range, and may result in northward range contraction over time.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2010892
- PAR ID:
- 10508915
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford Academic
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Evolution
- ISSN:
- 0014-3820
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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