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Abstract Theoretical analysis of epidemic dynamics has attracted significant attention in the aftermath of the COVID–19 pandemic. In this article, we study dynamic instabilities in a spatiotemporal compartmental epidemic model represented by a stochastic system of coupled partial differential equations (SPDE). Saturation effects in infection spread–anchored in physical considerations–lead to strong nonlinearities in the SPDE. Our goal is to study the onset of dynamic, Turing–type instabilities, and the concomitant emergence of steady–state patterns under the interplay between three critical model parameters–the saturation parameter, the noise intensity, and the transmission rate. Employing a second–order perturbation analysis to investigate stability, we uncover both diffusion–driven and noise–induced instabilities and corresponding self–organized distinct patterns of infection spread in the steady state. We also analyze the effects of the saturation parameter and the transmission rate on the instabilities and the pattern formation. In summary, our results indicate that the nuanced interplay between the three parameters considered has a profound effect on the emergence of dynamical instabilities and therefore on pattern formation in the steady state. Moreover, due to the central role played by the Turing phenomenon in pattern formation in a variety of biological dynamic systems, the results are expected to have broader significance beyond epidemic dynamics.
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General validity of the second fluctuation-dissipation theorem in the nonequilibrium steady state: Theory and applications
In this paper, we derive a generalized second fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT) for stochastic dynamical systems in the steady state and further show that if the system is highly degenerate, then the classical second FDT is valid even when the exact form of the steady state distribution is unknown. The established theory is built upon the Mori-type generalized Langevin equation for stochastic dynamical systems and hence generally applies to nonequilibrium systems driven by stochastic forces. These theoretical results enable us to construct a data-driven nanoscale fluctuating heat conduction model based on the second FDT. We numerically verify that our heat transfer model yields better predictions than the Green-Kubo formula for systems far from the equilibrium.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2110981
- PAR ID:
- 10516622
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing Ltd
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Physica Scripta
- Volume:
- 98
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 0031-8949
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 115402
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1402-4896/acfce5
