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1. Predicting climate change impacts on critical fisheries species in Fijian marine systems and its implications for protected area spatial planning

   https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13709  

   Lawson, Katherine N. ; Lang, Karina M. ; Rabaiotti, Daniella ; Drew, Joshua ( August 2023 , Diversity and Distributions)

   Spatially explicit protections of coastal habitats determined on the current distribution of species and ecosystems risk becoming obsolete in 100 years if the movement of species ranges outpaces management action. Hence, a critical step of conservation is predicting the efficacy of management actions in future. We aimed to determine how foundational, habitat‐building species will respond to climate change in Fiji.

   The Republic of Fiji.

   We develop species distribution models (SDMs) using MaxEnt, General Additive Models and Boosted Regression Trees and publicly available data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to predict changes in distribution of suitable habitat for mangrove forests, coral habitat, seagrass meadows and critical fisheries invertebrates under several IPCC climate change scenarios in 2070 or 2100. We then overlay predicted distribution models onto existing Fijian protected area network to assess whether today's conservation measures will afford protection to tomorrow's distributions.

   We found that mangrove suitability is projected to decrease along the Coral Coast and increase northward towards the Yasawa Islands due to precipitation changes. The response of seagrass meadows was predicted to be inconsistent and dependent on the climate scenario. Meanwhile, suitability for coral reefs was not predicted to decline significantly overall. The mangrove crabScylla serrata, an important resource for fisherwomen in Fiji, is projected to increase in habitat suitability while economically important sea cucumber species will have highly variable responses to climate change.

   Species distribution models are a critical tool for conservation managers, as linking spatial distribution data with future climate change scenarios can aid in the creation and resiliency of protected area programmes. New protected area designations should consider the future distribution of species to maximize benefits to those taxa.

    

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2. The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7735  

   Nottingham, Sir ; Pelletier, Tara A. ( June 2021 , Ecology and Evolution)

   Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species ofPlethodonin the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species‐by‐species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group.

   Pacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT).

   WesternPlethodonsalamanders.

   Species distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage.

   The distribution of westernPlethodonsalamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group.

   While some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades ofPlethodonspecies are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution ofPlethodonspecies.

    

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3. Predicting the suitable habitat distribution of berry plants under climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-024-01839-7  

   Hamilton, Casey W. ; Smithwick, Erica A. H. ; Spellman, Katie V. ; Baltensperger, Andrew P. ; Spellman, Blaine T. ; Chi, Guangqing ( February 2024 , Landscape Ecology)

   Climate change is altering suitable habitat distributions of many species at high latitudes. Fleshy fruit-producing plants (hereafter, “berry plants”) are important in arctic food webs and as subsistence resources for human communities, but their response to a warming and increasingly variable climate at a landscape scale has not yet been examined.

   We aimed to identify environmental determinants of berry plant distribution and predict how climate change might shift these distributions.

   We used species distribution models to identify characteristics and predict the distribution of suitable habitat under current (2006–2013) and future climate conditions (2081–2100; representative concentration pathways 4.5, 6.0, & 8.5) for five berry plant species:Vaccinium uliginosumL.,Empetrum nigrumL.,Rubus chamaemorusL.,Vaccinium vitis-idaeaL., andViburnum edule(Michx.) Raf..

   Elevation, soil characteristics, and January and July temperatures were important drivers of habitat distributions. Future suitable habitat predictions showed net declines in suitable habitat area for all species modeled under almost all future climate scenarios tested.

   Our work contributes to understanding potential geographic shifts in suitable berry plant habitat with climate change at a landscape scale. Shifting and retracting distributions may alter where communities can harvest, suggesting that access to these resources may become restricted in the future. Our prediction maps may help inform climate adaptation planning as communities anticipate shifting access to harvesting locations.

    

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4. Caught in a bottleneck: Habitat loss for woolly mammoths in central North America and the ice‐free corridor during the last deglaciation

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13238  

   Wang, Yue ; Widga, Chris ; Graham, Russell W. ; McGuire, Jenny L. ; Porter, Warren ; Wårlind, David ; Williams, John W. ; Lyons, ed., Kathleen ( December 2020 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   Identifying how climate change, habitat loss, and corridors interact to influence species survival or extinction is critical to understanding macro‐scale biodiversity dynamics under changing environments. In North America, the ice‐free corridor was the only major pathway for northward migration by megafaunal species during the last deglaciation. However, the timing and interplay among the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions, climate change, habitat structure, and the opening and reforestation of the ice‐free corridor have been unclear.

   North America.

   15–10 ka.

   Woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius).

   For central North America and the ice‐free corridor between 15 and 10 ka, we used a series of models and continental‐scale datasets to reconstruct habitat characteristics and assess habitat suitability. The models and datasets include biophysical and statistical niche models Niche Mapper and Maxent, downscaled climate simulations from CCSM3 SynTraCE, LPJ‐GUESS simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and woody cover, and woody cover based upon fossil pollen from Neotoma.

   The ice‐free corridor may have been of limited suitability for traversal by mammoths and other grazers due to persistently low productivity by herbaceous plants and quick reforestation after opening 14 ka. Simultaneously, rapid reforestation and decreased forage productivity may have led to declining habitat suitability in central North America. This was possibly amplified by a positive feedback loop driven by reduced herbivory pressures, as mammoth population decline led to the further loss of open habitat.

   Declining habitat availability south of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and limited habitat availability in the ice‐free corridor were contributing factors in North American extinctions of woolly mammoths and other large grazers that likely operated synergistically with anthropogenic pressures. The role of habitat loss and attenuated corridor suitability for the woolly mammoth extinction reinforce the critical importance of protected habitat connectivity during changing climates, particularly for large vertebrates.

    

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5. Habitat use as indicator of adaptive capacity to climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13223  

   Teitelbaum, Claire S. ; Sirén, Alexej P. K. ; Coffel, Ethan ; Foster, Jane R. ; Frair, Jacqueline L. ; Hinton, Joseph W. ; Horton, Radley M. ; Kramer, David W. ; Lesk, Corey ; Raymond, Colin ; et al ( January 2021 , Diversity and Distributions)

   Populations of cold‐adapted species at the trailing edges of geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change from the combination of exposure to warm temperatures and high sensitivity to heat. Many of these species are predicted to decline under future climate scenarios, but they could persist if they can adapt to warming climates either physiologically or behaviourally. We aim to understand local variation in contemporary habitat use and use this information to identify signs of adaptive capacity. We focus on moose (Alces alces), a charismatic species of conservation and public interest.

   The northeastern United States, along the trailing edge of the moose geographic range in North America.

   We compiled data on occurrences and habitat use of moose from remote cameras and GPS collars across the northeastern United States. We use these data to build habitat suitability models at local and regional spatial scales and then to predict future habitat suitability under climate change. We also use fine‐scale GPS data to model relationships between habitat use and temperature on a daily temporal scale and to predict future habitat use.

   We find that habitat suitability for moose will decline under a range of climate change scenarios. However, moose across the region differ in their use of climatic and habitat space, indicating that they could exhibit adaptive capacity. We also find evidence for behavioural responses to weather, where moose increase their use of forested wetland habitats in warmer places and/or times.

   Our results suggest that there will be significant shifts in moose distribution due to climate change. However, if there is spatial variation in thermal tolerance, trailing‐edge populations could adapt to climate change. We highlight that prioritizing certain habitats for conservation (i.e., thermal refuges) could be crucial for this adaptation.

    

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