With continually increasing summer temperatures and intense heat waves, it can be easy to neglect the ecological effects of winter climate change. However, shifts in the climate during winter can have profound consequences for eco-evolutionary dynamics in extratropical latitudes and high-elevation locales. Climate change has increased winter temperatures, disrupted snowpack, and reduced ice cover (Rixen et al., 2022). Extreme losses of snowpack are projected for many regions by the end of the century (Talsma et al., 2022). Patterns of climate change are complex and region dependent, but winters are becoming less reliable overall, with elevated temperatures and altered snow dynamics. In ecosystems with cold winters, many plant species require exposure to low, but not necessarily freezing, temperatures for a prolonged period to break dormancy in the spring; this chilling requirement prevents leaf emergence, flowering, or germination from occurring in the middle of winter (Chuine et al., 2016). Warming winters have advanced the onset of spring and could result in insufficient overwinter chilling. In addition, spring and fall frosts that occur after plants become physiologically active can perturb phenology and reduce fitness. Finally, novel winter climates could disrupt biotic interactions among plants, their mutualists, and antagonists. Here, I discuss emerging research frontiers in these domains.
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This content will become publicly available on July 15, 2025
Germination response to winter temperature changes with seed shape and length of temperature exposure
In many regions, the climate is changing faster during winter than during the other seasons, and a loss of snow cover combined with increased temperature variability can expose overwintering organisms to harmful conditions. Understanding how species respond to these changes during critical developmental times, such as seed germination, helps us assess the ecological implications of winter climate change. To address this concern, we measured the breaking of seed dormancy and cold tolerance of temperate grassland species in the lab and field. In the lab, we ran germination trials testing the tolerance of 17 species to an extreme cold event. In the field, we deployed seeds of two species within a snow manipulation experiment at three locations and measured germination success biweekly from seeds subjected to ambient and reduced snow cover from winter into spring. From lab trials, cold tolerance varied among species, with seed germination decreasing <10%–100% following extreme cold events. Cold tolerance was related to seed traits, specifically less round seeds, seeds that required cold stratification, and seeds that mature later in the season tended to be more impacted by extreme cold temperatures. This variation in seed cold tolerance may contribute to altered community composition with continued winter climate change. In the field, germination increased through late winter, coinciding with the accumulation of days where temperatures were favorable for cold stratification. Through spring, germination success decreased as warm temperatures accumulated. Collectively, species‐specific seed cold tolerances and mortality rates may contribute to compositional changes in grasslands under continued winter climate change.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10523995
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology
- ISSN:
- 0012-9658
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Premise The timing of germination has profound impacts on fitness, population dynamics, and species ranges. Many plants have evolved responses to seasonal environmental cues to time germination with favorable conditions; these responses interact with temporal variation in local climate to drive the seasonal climate niche and may reflect local adaptation. Here, we examined germination responses to temperature cues in
Streptanthus tortuosus populations across an elevational gradient.Methods Using common garden experiments, we evaluated differences among populations in response to cold stratification (chilling) and germination temperature and related them to observed germination phenology in the field. We then explored how these responses relate to past climate at each site and the implications of those patterns under future climate change.
Results Populations from high elevations had stronger stratification requirements for germination and narrower temperature ranges for germination without stratification. Differences in germination responses corresponded with elevation and variability in seasonal temperature and precipitation across populations. Further, they corresponded with germination phenology in the field; low‐elevation populations germinated in the fall without chilling, whereas high‐elevation populations germinated after winter chilling and snowmelt in spring and summer. Climate‐change forecasts indicate increasing temperatures and decreasing snowpack, which will likely alter germination cues and timing, particularly for high‐elevation populations.
Conclusions The seasonal germination niche for
S. tortuosus is highly influenced by temperature and varies across the elevational gradient. Climate change will likely affect germination timing, which may cascade to influence trait expression, fitness, and population persistence. -
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