Many African large carnivore populations are declining due to decline of the herbivore populations on which they depend. We recently noted that the densities of true apex carnivores like the lion and spotted hyena correlate strongly with prey density, but competitively subordinate carnivores like the African wild dog benefit from competitive release when density of apex carnivores is low, so the expected effect of a simultaneous decrease in resources and dominant competitors is not obvious. We found that when prey density drops below a tipping point, the relationship of wild dog density to prey density changes sign, and wild dog density declines. We also noted that ‘prey depletion provides a mechanistically direct explanation of patterns in wild dog dynamics that have been attributed to climate change’ (Creel et al., 2023). Woodroffe et al. concur that prey depletion is an important threat, but suggest that we fail to understand the logic of their assertion that “climate change is likely to cause population collapse” (Rabaiotti et al., 2022), because the “identification of climate change as a threat is not based upon observed temporal trends in wild dog demography”. This statement misses our fundamental point. The data that Woodroffe et al. analyzed were collected over a period with rising temperatures and declining prey populations, so whether or not one tests for a time trend in demography, the data themselves are affected by two patterns:
more »
« less
A Computational Decision-Tree Approach to Inform Post-Conviction Intake Decisions
How might data analytic tools support intake decisions? When faced with a request for post-conviction assistance, innocence organizations’ intake staff must determine (1) whether the applicant can be shown to be factually innocent, and (2) whether the organization has the resources to help. These difficult categorization decisions are often made with incomplete information (Weintraub, 2022). We explore data from the National Registry of Exonerations (NRE; 4/26/2023, N = 3,284 exonerations) to inform such decisions, using patterns of features associated with successful prior cases. We first reproduce Berube et al. (2023)’s latent class analysis, identifying four underlying categories across cases. We then apply a second technique to increase transparency, decision tree analysis (WEKA, Frank et al., 2013). Decision trees can decompose complex patterns of data into ordered flows of variables, with the potential to guide intermediate steps that could be tailored to the particular organization’s limitations, areas of expertise, and resources.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2125295
- PAR ID:
- 10524764
- Publisher / Repository:
- University of Alberta Library
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Wrongful Conviction Law Review
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2563-2574
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 80 to 102
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
This work-in-progress research paper describes the pilot work in a study seeking to gain further insight on the relationships between intuition, expertise, and experience through a better understanding of how intuition is applied in engineering problem solving. Individuals who have attained a high level of expertise, exhibit characteristics of intuitive decision making (Dreyfus & Dreyfus, 1980). The development of expertise (Dreyfus &; Dreyfus, 1980; Seifert et al., 1997) and intuition (Authors, 2019; Authors, 2023) are heavily influenced by experience. Engineering intuition can be summarized as a subconscious problem-solving skill that is based on previous experience (Authors, 2023). In this work, we will be using Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) to examine the use of intuition in engineering problem solving. CTA is a class of observational protocols that surface tacit knowledge through engaging experts with a task (Crandall, 2006). The purpose of CTA is to capture how the mind works through three primary aspects: knowledge elicitation, data analysis, and knowledge representation. As best CTA practices use multiple methods, we will use three methods for this analysis, 1) Simulation Interviews where participants are given a simulated engineering problem and asked to speak out loud to describe their process in approaching the problem, 2) Critical Decision Method (Klein, 1989) where a retrospective interview probes the decisions made during the simulation interview, and 3) Knowledge Audit Method (Taheri et al., 2014) which further guides our probing questions to identify types of knowledge used, or not used, during the simulated problem solving experience. These three techniques are applied to collect data on participants' problem solving. To develop the problems for the Simulation Interviews, we have first conducted pilot work using just the Critical Decision Method and Knowledge Audit Method. As part of the Critical Decision Method, participants will select a non routine problem-solving incident, construct an incident timeline, identify decision points for future probing, and then probe these decisions using the Knowledge Audit Method. This method allows us to determine realistic, practice-based problems for the Simulation Interview, why the participant makes certain decisions, and how their educational background and on the job training influenced their decision making process. The anticipated outcomes of this research are to expand engineering education through a better understanding of engineering intuition and to provide a foundation for the explicit application of intuition in engineering problem solving. These insights can be beneficial for creating educational interventions that promote intuition development and introduce real-world engineering practices in the classroom. This in turn can promote metacognition in engineering students by creating pathways to expertise development, as well as boost confidence and support retention (Metcalfe & Wiebe, 1987; Bolton, 2022; Authors, 2021; Authors, 2023). Additionally, insights into intuition can be beneficial in onboarding new hires who may have more expertise development, agility, and adaptability to the technical landscape in the engineering workforce. References: Authors. (2021). Authors. (2019). Authors. (2023). Bolton, C. S. (2022). What Makes an Expert? Characterizing Perceptions of Expertise and Intuition Among Early-Career Engineers [Undergraduate Honors Thesis, Bucknell University]. Lewisburg, PA. Crandall, B., Klein, G. A., &; Hoffman, R. R. (2006). Working minds: A practitioner's guide to cognitive task analysis. MIT Press. Dreyfus, S. E., & Dreyfus, H. L. (1980). A Five-Stage Model of the Mental Activities Involved in Directed Skill Acquisition. Klein, G. A, Calderwood, R., and Macgregor, D. (1989). Critical decision method for eliciting knowledge, IEEE Transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, 19(3), 462-472. https://doi.org/10.1109/21.31053 Metcalfe, J., & Wiebe, D. (1987). Intuition in Insight and Noninsight Problem Solving. Memory & Cognition, 15(3), 238-246. https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03197722. Seifert, C. M., Patalano, A. L., Hammond, K. J., & Converse, T. M. (1997). Experience and expertise: The role of memory in planning for opportunities. In P. J. Feltovich, K. M. Ford, & R. R. Hoffmanm (Eds.), Expertise in Context (pp. 101-123). AAAI Press/ MIT Press. Taheri, L., Che Pa, N., Abdullah, R., & Abdullah, S. (2014). Knowledge audit model for requirement elicitation process. International Scholarly and Scientific Research & Innovation, 8(2), 452-456.more » « less
-
Working memory, the brain’s ability to temporarily store and recall information, is a critical part of decision making – but it has its limits. The brain can only store so much information, for so long. Since decisions are not often acted on immediately, information held in working memory ‘degrades’ over time. However, it is unknown whether or not this degradation of information over time affects the accuracy of later decisions. The tactics that people use, knowingly or otherwise, to store information in working memory also remain unclear. Do people store pieces of information such as numbers, objects and particular details? Or do they tend to compute that information, make some preliminary judgement and recall their verdict later? Does the strategy chosen impact people’s decision-making? To investigate, Schapiro et al. devised a series of experiments to test whether the limitations of working memory, and how people store information, affect the accuracy of decisions they make. First, participants were shown an array of colored discs on a screen. Then, either immediately after seeing the disks or a few seconds later, the participants were asked to recall the position of one of the disks they had seen, or the average position of all the disks. This measured how much information degraded for a decision based on multiple items, and how much for a decision based on a single item. From this, the method of information storage used to make a decision could be inferred. Schapiro et al. found that the accuracy of people’s responses worsened over time, whether they remembered the position of each individual disk, or computed their average location before responding. The greater the delay between seeing the disks and reporting their location, the less accurate people’s responses tended to be. Similarly, the more disks a participant saw, the less accurate their response became. This suggests that however people store information, if working memory reaches capacity, decision-making suffers and that, over time, stored information decays. Schapiro et al. also noticed that participants remembered location information in different ways depending on the task and how many disks they were shown at once. This suggests people adopt different strategies to retain information momentarily. In summary, these findings help to explain how people process and store information to make decisions and how the limitations of working memory impact their decision-making ability. A better understanding of how people use working memory to make decisions may also shed light on situations or brain conditions where decision-making is impaired.more » « less
-
Samples for the analysis of dissolved nutrients were collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) from the water column, sea ice cores and from special events/locations (e.g., leads, melt ponds, brine, incubation experiments). Samples for dissolved inorganic nutrients (NO3 +NO2 , NO2 , PO4 , Si(OH)4, NH4 ) were analysed onboard during PS122 legs 1 to 3, with duplicate samples collected from CTD casts for later analysis of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP). From leg 4, all samples collected were stored frozen at -20°C for later analysis. Analyses of stored samples were carried out at the AWI Nutrient Facility between January and March 2021. Nutrient analyses onboard and on land were carried out using a Seal Analytical AA3 continuous flow autoanalyser, controlled by the AACE software version 7.09. Best practice procedures for the measurement of nutrients were adopted following GO-SHIP recommendations (Hydes et al., 2010; Becker et al., 2019). Descriptions of sample collection and handling can be found in the various cruise reports (Haas & Rabe, 2023; Kanzow & Damm, 2023; Rex & Metfies, 2023; Rex & Nicolaus, 2023; Rex & Shupe, 2023). Here we provide data from the water column, obtained from the analysis of discrete samples collected from CTD-Rosette casts from Polarstern (https://sensor.awi.de/?site=search&q=vessel:polarstern:ctd_sbe9plus_321) and Ocean City (https://sensor.awi.de/?site=search&q=vessel:polarstern:ctd_sbe9plus_935). Data from sea ice cores and special events are presented elsewhere. Data from sea ice cores and special events are presented elsewhere. For reference, here we included data from CTD-BTL files associated with nutrient samples. These data are presented by Tippenhauer et al. (2023) Polarstern CTD and Tippenhauer et al. (2023) Ocean City CTD.more » « less
-
Samples for the analysis of dissolved nutrients were collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) from the water column, sea ice cores and from special events/locations (e.g., leads, melt ponds, brine, incubation experiments). Samples for dissolved inorganic nutrients (NO3 +NO2 , NO2 , PO4 , Si(OH)4, NH4 ) were analysed onboard during PS122 legs 1 to 3, with duplicate samples collected from CTD casts for later analysis of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP). From leg 4, all samples collected were stored frozen at -20°C for later analysis. Analyses of stored samples were carried out at the AWI Nutrient Facility between January and March 2021. Nutrient analyses onboard and on land were carried out using a Seal Analytical AA3 continuous flow autoanalyser, controlled by the AACE software version 7.09. Best practice procedures for the measurement of nutrients were adopted following GO-SHIP recommendations (Hydes et al., 2010; Becker et al., 2019). Descriptions of sample collection and handling can be found in the various cruise reports (Haas & Rabe, 2023; Kanzow & Damm, 2023; Rex & Metfies, 2023; Rex & Nicolaus, 2023; Rex & Shupe, 2023). Here we provide data from the water column, obtained from the analysis of discrete samples collected from CTD-Rosette casts from Polarstern (https://sensor.awi.de/?site=search&q=vessel:polarstern:ctd_sbe9plus_321) and Ocean City (https://sensor.awi.de/?site=search&q=vessel:polarstern:ctd_sbe9plus_935). Data from sea ice cores and special events are presented elsewhere. Data from sea ice cores and special events are presented elsewhere. For reference, here we included data from CTD-BTL files associated with nutrient samples. These data are presented by Tippenhauer et al. (2023) Polarstern CTD and Tippenhauer et al. (2023) Ocean City CTD.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

