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1. EARLY WARNING OF A COLD WAVE IN THE GULF OF MAINE

   Record, N; Pershing, A; Rasher, D (September 2024, Oceanography)

   Oceanographic changes are occurring more rapidly in recent decades, with new implications for ocean ecosystems and adjacent human communities. It is important to bring attention to these changes while they are unfolding rather than after they have occurred. Here we report on a rapid shift toward colder, fresher water in the deep Gulf of Maine that, as of mid-June 2024, has persisted for at least six months. The shift likely represents an influx of Labrador Slope Water and resembles conditions that predated a major warming shift that occurred in 2011–2012. Deep-water oceanographic conditions in the Gulf of Maine have a strong influence on ecosystem dynamics, including the prey of critically endangered North Atlantic right whales, the seasonal and disease dynamics of American lobster, and the distribution and abundance of kelp forest communities, among others. Oceanographic surprises have an important role in this system, and monitoring how this shift unfolds, oceanographically and ecologically, will give new insights into how oceanographic signals can inform our understanding of ecosystem responses. 

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2. Bridging the spawner-recruit disconnect II: Revealing basin-scale correlations between zooplankton and lobster settlement dynamics in the Gulf of Maine

   Shank, B; Carloni, J; Geoghegan, P; Fields, D; Goode, A; Walsh, H; Wahle, R (June 2024, Fisheries Research)

   In recent decades, recruitment of young-of-year lobsters to benthic nursery habitats in the Gulf of Maine was regionally synchronized and exhibited correlative links with changes in the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a foundational zooplankton species of the pelagic food web. The spatial scale at which recruitment dynamics were correlated indicated that recruitment processes were not as strongly coupled to trends in spawner abundance as might be expected, but, rather, were influenced by common, ecosystem-scale processes. Here we explored how local- and basin-scale zooplankton dynamics and oceanographic indicators in the Gulf of Maine correlated with lobster settlement indices and each other since the late 1980s. Our analysis indicates that lobster settlement trends in southwestern Gulf of Maine study areas, from Midcoast Maine to Cape Cod Bay, tend to be significantly correlated with basin-wide C. finmarchicus dynamics and the composition of waters entering the Gulf of Maine through the Northeast Channel. In contrast, lobster settlement in the northeastern Gulf, from Penobscot Bay to the Bay of Fundy, tended to correlate more strongly to C. finmarchicus variability in the Bay of Fundy region, which was distinct in earlier years but converged with the broader basin-scale processes in the latter years. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that the combined effect of climate-related declines in abundance and phenological shifts of C. finmarchicus have contributed to declines in lobster settlement over the past decade, and justify further research into the mechanisms of this interaction. These changes also align with the weakening influence of cold Labrador Slope Water and strengthening effects of warm Gulf Stream waters that precipitated an ecosystem-wide regime shift in the Gulf of Maine over the past decade and may have greater implications for lobster recruitment than previously suspected. 

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3. Documenting Environmental and Oceanic Variability in the Down East Coastal Region of the Gulf of Maine using the long-lived bivalve Arctica islandica

   Walton, A.; Griffin, S.M.; Wanamaker, A.D.; Jarosinski, L. (April 2022, PAGES Open Science Meeting)

   The Gulf of Maine (GoM) is currently undergoing rapid environmental and ecological changes and this system is projected to become increasingly stressed in the coming decades. Thus understanding past spatial and temporal conditions of this region is key to understanding how future environmental changes and extreme events may impact fisheries and ecosystem dynamics in the GoM. Changes in the physical and chemical variations in the shells of mollusks can be used as a powerful proxy for studying past climates and environments. In this study, we used the growth and geochemistry signatures in the long-lived marine bivalve Arctica islandica collected from the Down East coastal region in the Gulf of Maine (Jonesport, ME) to evaluate past climatic and hydrographic variability in the northwestern North Atlantic Ocean. The recent collection of shells extends a previously developed master shell growth chronology by 11 years and now spans from 1954 to 2020 CE. Based on visual crossdating techniques, shell growth variability is highly coherent among the population indicating that environmental conditions are driving growth. Variability in annually resolved shell growth increments and stable oxygen isotope values are largely related to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and water mass properties of the Eastern Maine Coastal Current. This master shell growth chronology and annually-resolved isotope series will fill data gaps prior to instrumental records and allow us to better understand the spatial oceanographic variability in the GoM. 

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4. The Surprising Oceanography of the Gulf of Maine

   https://doi.org/10.53558/JDZI8238  

   Record, Nicholas R; Tupper, Benjamin; Evanilla, Johnathan; Oliveira, Kyle; Ross, Camille; Ngai, Logan; Stamieszkin, Karen (January 2023, Maine Policy Review)

   The oceanography of the Gulf of Maine has recently changed in ways that have not been seen previously, but that are likely to be more common in the future. Because of the rapid rate of change, some view the Gulf of Maine as a window into the ocean’s future with the idea that lessons learned can be applied in places that have yet to experience similar rapid changes. Based on a formal statistical definition of oceanographic surprises, the frequency of surprises in the Gulf of Maine is higher and has increased faster than ex- pected even given underlying trends. The analysis suggests that we should expect new kinds of surprises that are characteristically different from previ- ous ones. The implication for policymaking is that in addition to considering long-term environmental changes, it is important to consider scenarios of sudden, unexpected, and potentially extreme environmental changes. 

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5. Evidence of coherent warming in the northwest Atlantic Ocean from Arctica islandica oxygen isotope records

   Thatcher, D.; Whitney, N.; Walton, A.; Sun, H.; Jarosinski, L.; Wanamaker, A.; LaVigne, M.; Williams, B.; Stewart, J. (May 2023, International Sclerochronology Conference)

   Parts of the northwest Atlantic Ocean, including the Gulf of Maine, along the northeastern coast of the United States, are warming at a rate as much as four times faster than the global ocean, according to instrumental and satellite records. In addition to the longer-term temperature increases, the frequency and severity of marine heat waves have been increasing. Combined, the ecological impacts are numerous and concerning, yet our understanding of past climate in this region is incomplete due to sparse and short-duration instrumental records. Here we present annually resolved oxygen isotope records from the marine bivalve, Arctica islandica, from five locations ranging from Jonesport and Seguin Island in the Gulf of Maine to Long Island, New York, Cape May, New Jersey, and Ocean City, Maryland in the Mid-Atlantic Bight, a span of over 870 km along the Atlantic coast. Several of the isotope records span the last 100 years or more and all records show coherent, substantial warming since at least 1980 CE. The level of warming indicated in the shell oxygen isotopes is comparable to the 0.5 °C per decade (1980-2020 CE) warming also shown in the instrumental record of sea surface temperature from Boothbay Harbor along the central coast in the Gulf of Maine. These five spatially distant isotope records span different oceanographic conditions and dynamics, including water mass sources, yet they all indicate a substantial warming in recent decades, likely related to increased anthropogenic warming. Beyond reconstructing seawater temperature prior to instrumental records, a major goal of this work is to disentangle the global warming signal from these records to better understand the underlying ocean dynamics also influencing these records. 

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