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1. Simulated fire video collection for advancing understanding of human behavior in building fires

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1438020  

   Bonny, Justin W; Hussain, Zishanul; Russell, Micah D; Trouvé, Arnaud; Milke, James A (August 2024, Frontiers in Psychology)

   IntroductionThe goal of the present research was to develop a video collection of simulated fires to investigate how people perceive growing building fires. In fire safety science, a critical factor to occupant responses to building fires is the pre-movement period, determined by how long it takes an individual to initiate taking protective action with an incipient fire. Key to studying the psychological processes that contribute to the duration of the pre-movement period is presenting human subjects with building fires. One approach used in previous research is to present videos of building fires to individuals via scenarios. The numerical simulations used to model fire dynamics can be used to render videos for these scenarios. However, such simulations have predominantly been used in fire protection engineering to design buildings and are relatively inaccessible to social scientists. MethodThe present study documents a collection of videos, based on numerical simulations, which can be used by researchers to study human behavior in fire. These videos display developing fires in different types of rooms, growing at different rates, different smoke thickness, among other characteristics. As part of a validation study, participants were presented with subsets of the video clips and were asked to rate the perceived risk posed by the simulated fire. Results and discussionWe observed that ratings varied by the intensity and growth rate of the fires, smoke opacity, type of room, and where the viewpoint was located from the fire. These effects aligned with those observed in previous fire science research, providing evidence that the videos could elicit perceived risk using fire simulations. The present research indicates that future studies can utilize the video library of fire simulations to study human perceptions of developing building fires as situational factors are systematically manipulated. 

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2. Simulating dynamic fire regime and vegetation change in a warming Siberia

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00188-1  

   Williams, Neil G.; Lucash, Melissa S.; Ouellette, Marc R.; Brussel, Thomas; Gustafson, Eric J.; Weiss, Shelby A.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Schepaschenko, Dmitry G.; Shvidenko, Anatoly Z. (May 2023, Fire Ecology)

   Abstract BackgroundClimate change is expected to increase fire activity across the circumboreal zone, including central Siberia. However, few studies have quantitatively assessed potential changes in fire regime characteristics, or considered possible spatial variation in the magnitude of change. Moreover, while simulations indicate that changes in climate are likely to drive major shifts in Siberian vegetation, knowledge of future forest dynamics under the joint influence of changes in climate and fire regimes remains largely theoretical. We used the forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, with PnET-Succession and the BFOLDS fire extension to simulate changes in vegetation and fire regime characteristics under four alternative climate scenarios in three 10,000-km²study landscapes distributed across a large latitudinal gradient in lowland central Siberia. We evaluated vegetation change using the fire life history strategies adopted by forest tree species: fire resisters, fire avoiders, and fire endurers. ResultsAnnual burned area, the number of fires per year, fire size, and fire intensity all increased under climate change. The relative increase in fire activity was greatest in the northernmost study landscape, leading to a reduction in the difference in fire rotation period between study landscapes. Although the number of fires per year increased progressively with the magnitude of climate change, mean fire size peaked under mild or moderate climate warming in each of our study landscapes, suggesting that fuel limitations and past fire perimeters will feed back to reduce individual fire extent under extreme warming, relative to less extreme warming scenarios. In the Southern and Mid-taiga landscapes, we observed a major shift from fire resister-dominated forests to forests dominated by broadleaved deciduous fire endurers (BetulaandPopulusgenera) under moderate and extreme climate warming scenarios, likely associated with the substantial increase in fire activity. These changes were accompanied by a major decrease in average cohort age and total vegetation biomass across the simulation landscapes. ConclusionsOur results imply that climate change will greatly increase fire activity and reduce spatial heterogeneity in fire regime characteristics across central Siberia. Potential ecological consequences include a widespread shift toward forests dominated by broadleaved deciduous species that employ a fire endurer strategy to persist in an increasingly fire-prone environment. 

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3. Forest fire, thinning, and flood in wildland-urban interface: UAV and lidar-based estimate of natural disaster impacts

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-024-01811-5  

   Sankey, Temuulen Ts; Tango, Lauren; Tatum, Julia; Sankey, Joel B (March 2024, Landscape Ecology)

   Abstract ContextWildland-urban interface (WUI) areas are facing increased forest fire risks and extreme precipitation events due to climate change, which can lead to post-fire flood events. The city of Flagstaff in northern Arizona, USA experienced WUI forest thinning, fire, and record rainfall events, which collectively contributed to large floods and damages to the urban neighborhoods and city infrastructure. ObjectivesWe demonstrate multi-temporal, high resolution image applications from an unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) and terrestrial lidar in estimating landscape disturbance impacts within the WUI. Changes in forest vegetation and bare ground cover in WUIs are particularly challenging to estimate with coarse-resolution satellite images due to fine-scale landscape processes and changes that often result in mixed pixels. MethodsUsing Sentinel-2 satellite images, we document forest fire impacts and burn severity. Using 2016 and 2021 UAV multispectral images and Structure-from-Motion data, we estimate post-thinning changes in forest canopy cover, patch sizes, canopy height distribution, and bare ground cover. Using repeat lidar data within a smaller area of the watershed, we quantify geomorphic effects in the WUI associated with the fire and subsequent flooding. ResultsWe document that thinning significantly reduced forest canopy cover, patch size, tree density, and mean canopy height resulting in substantially reduced active crown fire risks in the future. However, the thinning equipment ignited a forest fire, which burned the WUI at varying severity at the top of the watershed that drains into the city. Moderate-high severity burns occurred within 3 km of downtown Flagstaff threatening the WUI neighborhoods and the city. The upstream burned area then experienced 100-year and 200–500-year rainfall events, which resulted in large runoff-driven floods and sedimentation in the city. ConclusionWe demonstrate that UAV high resolution images and photogrammetry combined with terrestrial lidar data provide detailed and accurate estimates of forest thinning and post-fire flood impacts, which could not be estimated from coarser-resolution satellite images. Communities around the world may need to prepare their WUIs for catastrophic fires and increase capacity to manage sediment-laden stormwater since both fires and extreme weather events are projected to increase. 

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4. Using simulated wildland fire to assess microbial survival at multiple depths from biocrust and bare soils

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2023.1123790  

   Palmer, Brianne; Pietrasiak, Nicole; Cobb, Polina; Lipson, David (March 2023, Frontiers in Microbiology)

   IntroductionSurface soil microbial communities are directly exposed to the heat from wildland fires. Due to this, the microbial community composition may be stratified within the soil profile with more heat tolerant microbes near the surface and less heat tolerant microbes, or mobile species found deeper in the soil. Biological soil crusts, biocrusts, are found on the soil surface and contain a diverse microbial community that is directly exposed to the heat from wildland fires. MethodsHere, we used a simulated fire mesocosm along with a culture-based approach and molecular characterization of microbial isolates to understand the stratification of biocrust and bare soil microbes after low severity (450°C) and high severity (600°C) fires. We cultured and sequenced microbial isolates from 2 to 6 cm depth from both fire types. ResultsThe isolates were stratified along the soil depth. Green algal isolates were less thermotolerant and found in the deeper depths (4–6 cm) and the control soils, while several cyanobacteria in Oscillatoriales, Synechococcales, and Nostocales were found at 2–3 cm depth for both fire temperatures. An Alphaproteobacteria isolate was common across several depths, both fire types, and both fire temperatures. Furthermore, we used RNA sequencing at three depths after the high severity fire and one control to determine what microbial community is active following a fire. The community was dominated by Gammaproteobacteria, however some Cyanobacteria ASVs were also present. DiscussionHere we show evidence of stratification of soil and biocrust microbes after a fire and provide evidence that these microbes are able to survive the heat from the fire by living just below the soil surface. This is a steppingstone for future work on the mechanisms of microbial survival after fire and the role of soil insulation in creating resilient communities. 

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5. Temporal and spatial pattern analysis of escaped prescribed fires in California from 1991 to 2020

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-024-00342-3  

   Li, Shu; Baijnath-Rodino, Janine_A; York, Robert_A; Quinn-Davidson, Lenya_N; Banerjee, Tirtha (January 2025, Fire Ecology)

   Abstract BackgroundPrescribed fires play a critical role in reducing the intensity and severity of future wildfires by systematically and widely consuming accumulated vegetation fuel. While the current probability of prescribed fire escape in the United States stands very low, their consequential impact, particularly the large wildfires they cause, raises substantial concerns. The most direct way of understanding this trade-off between wildfire risk reduction and prescribed fire escapes is to explore patterns in the historical prescribed fire records. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of escaped prescribed fires in California from 1991 to 2020, offering insights for resource managers in developing effective forest management and fuel treatment strategies. ResultsThe results reveal that the months close to the beginning and end of the wildfire season, namely May, June, September, and November, have the highest frequency of escaped fires. Under similar environmental conditions, areas with more records of prescribed fire implementation tend to experience fewer escapes. The findings revealed the vegetation types most susceptible to escaped prescribed fires. Areas with tree cover ranging from 20 to 60% exhibited the highest incidence of escapes compared to shrubs and grasslands. Among all the environmental conditions analyzed, wind speed stands out as the predominant factor that affects the risk of prescribed fire escaping. ConclusionsThese findings mark an initial step in identifying high-risk areas and periods for prescribed fire escapes. Understanding these patterns and the challenges of quantifying escape rates can inform more effective landscape management practices. 

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