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Abstract We must be able to predict and mitigate against geomagnetically induced current (GIC) effects to minimize socio‐economic impacts. This study employs the space weather modeling framework (SWMF) to model the geomagnetic response over Fennoscandia to the September 7–8, 2017 event. Of key importance to this study is the effects of spatial resolution in terms of regional forecasts and improved GIC modeling results. Therefore, we ran the model at comparatively low, medium, and high spatial resolutions. The virtual magnetometers from each model run are compared with observations from the IMAGE magnetometer network across various latitudes and over regional‐scales. The virtual magnetometer data from the SWMF are coupled with a local ground conductivity model which is used to calculate the geoelectric field and estimate GICs in a Finnish natural gas pipeline. This investigation has lead to several important results in which higher resolution yielded: (1) more realistic amplitudes and timings of GICs, (2) higher amplitude geomagnetic disturbances across latitudes, and (3) increased regional variations in terms of differences between stations. Despite this, substorms remain a significant challenge to surface magnetic field prediction from global magnetohydrodynamic modeling. For example, in the presence of multiple large substorms, the associated large‐amplitude depressions were not captured, which caused the largest model‐data deviations. The results from this work are of key importance to both modelers and space weather operators. Particularly when the goal is to obtain improved regional forecasts of geomagnetic disturbances and/or more realistic estimates of the geoelectric field.
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What Drove the GICs >10 A During the 17 March 2013 Event at Mäntsälä? A Novel Framework for Distinguishing the Magnetospheric Sources
Abstract We combine wavelet analysis and data fusion to investigate geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) on the Mäntsälä pipeline and the associated horizontal geomagnetic field, BH, variations during the late main phase of the 17 March 2013 geomagnetic storm. The wavelet analysis decomposes the GIC and BH signals at increasing “scales” to show distinct multi‐minute spectral features around the GIC spikes. Four GIC spikes >10 A occurred while the pipeline was in the dusk sector—the first sine‐wave‐like spike at ∼16 UT was “compound.” It was followed by three “self‐similar” spikes 2 hr later. The contemporaneous multi‐resolution observations from ground‐(magnetometer, SuperMAG, SuperDARN), and space‐based (AMPERE, Two Wide‐Angle Imaging Neutral‐atom Spectrometers) platforms capture multi‐scale activity to reveal two magnetospheric modes causing the spikes. The GIC at ∼16 UT occurred in two parts with the negative spike associated with a transient sub‐auroral eastward electrojet that closed a developing partial ring current loop, whereas the positive spike developed with the arrival of the associated mesoscale flow‐channel in the auroral zone. The three spikes between 18 and 19 UT were due to bursty bulk flows (BBFs). We attribute all spikes to flow‐channel injections (substorms) of varying scales. We use previously published MHD simulations of the event to substantiate our conclusions, given the dearth of timely in‐situ satellite observations. Our results show that multi‐scale magnetosphere‐ionosphere activity that drives GICs can be understood using multi‐resolution analysis. This new framework of combining wavelet analysis with multi‐platform observations opens a research avenue for GIC investigations and other space weather impacts.
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- PAR ID:
- 10527791
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 22
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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