Abstract The adoption of contraception often coincides with market integration and has transformative effects on fertility behavior. Yet many parents in small-scale societies make decisions about whether and when to adopt family planning in an environment where the payoffs to have smaller families are uncertain. Here we track the fertility of Maya women across 90 years, spanning the transition from natural to contracepting fertility. We first situate the uncertainty in which fertility decisions are made and model how childbearing behaviors respond. We find that contraception, a key factor in cultural transmission models of fertility decline, initially has little effect on family size as women appear to hedge their bets and adopt fertility control only at the end of their reproductive careers. Family planning is, however, associated with the spread of lower fertility in later cohorts. Distinguishing influences on the origin versus spread of a behaviour provides valuable insight into causal factors shaping individual and normative changes in fertility.
more »
« less
Is the mortality–fertility nexus gendered? A research note on sex differences in the impact of sibling mortality on fertility preferences
- Award ID(s):
- 2116350
- PAR ID:
- 10528711
- Publisher / Repository:
- Taylor & Francis Online
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Population Studies
- Volume:
- 77
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0032-4728
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 141 to 151
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)The oxidation state of the Earth’s mantle and its partial melting products exert a key control on the behavior and distribution of sulfur and chalcophile and siderophile elements between the mantle and crust, underpinning models of ore deposit formation. Whether the oxidized nature of magmas is inherited from the asthenospheric mantle source or acquired during ascent and differentiation is vigorously debated, limiting our understanding of the mechanisms of extraction of sulfur and metals from the mantle. Here, we focused on the redox-sensitive behavior of sulfur in apatite crystallized from quenched alkaline basaltic melts preserved within a peridotite xenolith from the El Deseado Massif auriferous province in southern Patagonia. We took advantage of this unique setting to elucidate the redox evolution of melts during their ascent through the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) and grasp the inner workings of the Earth’s mantle during gold metallogenesis. Our data reveal that an initially reduced silicate melt (1FMQ 2.2 to 1.2) was oxidized to 1FMQ between 0 and 1.2 during percolation and interaction with the surrounding peridotite wall-rock (1FMQ 0 to C0.8). This process triggered changes in sulfur speciation and solubility in the silicate melt, boosting the potential of the melt to scavenge ore metals such as gold. We suggest that large redox gradients resulting from the interaction between ascending melts and the surrounding mantle can potentially modify the oxidation state of primitive melts and enhance their metallogenic fertility. Among other factors including an enriched metal source and favorable geodynamic conditions, redox gradients in the mantle may exert a first-order control on the global-scale localization of crustal provinces endowed with gold deposits.more » « less
-
Abstract The southern Benguela upwelling system (SBUS) supports high rates of primary productivity that sustain important commercial fisheries. The exceptional fertility of this system is reportedly fueled not only by upwelled nutrients but also by nutrients regenerated on the broad and shallow continental shelf. We measured nutrient concentrations and the nitrogen (N) and oxygen (O) isotope ratios (δ15N and δ18O) of nitrate along four zonal lines in the SBUS in late summer and early winter to evaluate the extent to which regenerated nutrients augment the upwelled nutrient reservoir originating offshore. During summer upwelling, a decrease in on‐shelf nitrate δ18O revealed that 0–48% of the subsurface nutrients derived from in situ remineralization. The nitrate regenerated on‐shelf in the more quiescent winter (0–63% of total nitrate) extended further offshore along the mid‐shelf. A shoreward increase in subsurface nitrate δ15N and a greater N deficit in on‐shelf bottom waters further indicated N loss to benthic (and at times, watercolumn) denitrification coincident with the on‐shelf remineralization. Our data show that remineralized nutrients get trapped on the SBUS shelf in summer through early winter, enhancing the nutrient pool that can be upwelled to support surface production. We hypothesize that this process is aided by a number of equatorward‐flowing hydrographic fronts that impede the lateral exchange of surface waters. The extent to which nutrients remain trapped on the shelf has implications for the occurrence of hypoxic events in the SBUS.more » « less
-
Background Animal conservation often requires intensive management actions to improve reproductive output, yet any adverse effects of these may not be immediately apparent, particularly in threatened species with small populations and long lifespans. Hand-rearing is an example of a conservation management strategy which, while boosting populations, can cause long-term demographic and behavioural problems. It is used in the recovery of the critically endangered kākāpō ( Strigops habroptilus ), a flightless parrot endemic to New Zealand, to improve the slow population growth that is due to infrequent breeding, low fertility and low hatching success. Methods We applied Bayesian mixed models to examine whether hand-rearing and other factors were associated with clutch fertility in kākāpō. We used projection predictive variable selection to compare the relative contributions to fertility from the parents’ rearing environment, their age and previous copulation experience, the parental kinship, and the number of mates and copulations for each clutch. We also explored how the incidence of repeated copulations and multiple mates varied with kākāpō density. Results The rearing status of the clutch father and the number of mates and copulations of the clutch mother were the dominant factors in predicting fertility. Clutches were less likely to be fertile if the father was hand-reared compared to wild-reared, but there was no similar effect for mothers. Clutches produced by females copulating with different males were more likely to be fertile than those from repeated copulations with one male, which in turn had a higher probability of fertility than those from a single copulation. The likelihood of multiple copulations and mates increased with female:male adult sex ratio, perhaps as a result of mate guarding by females. Parental kinship, copulation experience and age all had negligible associations with clutch fertility. Conclusions These results provide a rare assessment of factors affecting fertility in a wild threatened bird species, with implications for conservation management. The increased fertility due to multiple mates and copulations, combined with the evidence for mate guarding and previous results of kākāpō sperm morphology, suggests that an evolutionary mechanism exists to optimise fertility through sperm competition in kākāpō. The high frequency of clutches produced from single copulations in the contemporary population may therefore represent an unnatural state, perhaps due to too few females. This suggests that opportunity for sperm competition should be maximised by increasing population densities, optimising sex ratios, and using artificial insemination. The lower fertility of hand-reared males may result from behavioural defects due to lack of exposure to conspecifics at critical development stages, as seen in other taxa. This potential negative impact of hand-rearing must be balanced against the short-term benefits it provides.more » « less
-
Data from the General Social Survey indicate that higher-fertility individuals and their children are more conservative on “family values” issues, especially regarding abortion and same-sex marriage. This pattern implies that differential fertility has increased and will continue to increase public support for conservative policies on these issues. The association of family size with conservatism is specific to traditional-family issues and can be attributed in large part to the greater religiosity and lower educational attainment of individuals from larger families. Over the 2004 to 2018 period, opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion was 3 to 4 percentage points more prevalent than it would have been were traditional-family conservatism independent of family size in the current generation. For same-sex marriage, evolutionary forces have grown in relative importance as society as a whole has liberalized. As of 2018, differential fertility raised the number of US adults opposed to same-sex marriage by 17%, from 46.9 million to 54.8 million.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

