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Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (ffCO2) constitute the majority of greenhouse gas emissions and are the main determinant of global climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic caused wide-scale disruption to human activity and provided an opportunity to evaluate our capability to detect ffCO2 emission reductions. Quantifying changes in ffCO2 levels is especially challenging in cities, where climate mitigation policies are being implemented but local emissions lead to spatially and temporally complex atmospheric mixing ratios. Here, we assess ffCO2 emission patterns associated with pandemic-induced changes to human activity using direct observations of on-road CO2 mole fractions in the Los Angeles (LA) urban area and analyses of the radiocarbon (14C) content of annual grasses collected by community scientists throughout California, USA. With COVID-19 mobility restrictions in place in 2020, we observed a significant reduction in ffCO2 levels across California, especially in urban centers. In LA, on-road CO2 enhancements were 60 ± 16% lower than the corresponding period of 2019 and rebounded to pre-pandemic levels by 2021. Plant 14C analysis indicated ffCO2 reductions of 5 ± 10 ppm in 2020 relative to pre-pandemic observations in LA. However, ffCO2 emission trajectories varied substantially by region and sector as COVID-related restrictions were relaxed. Further development of these techniques could aid efforts to monitor decarbonization in cities, especially in developing countries without established CO2 monitoring infrastructure.
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Reductions in California's urban fossil fuel CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic
Fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions (ffCO2) constitute the majority of greenhouse gas emissions and are the main determinent of global climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic caused wide-scale disruption to human activity and provided an opportunity to evaluate our capability to detect ffCO2 emission reductions. Quantifying changes in ffCO2 levels is especially challenging in cities, where climate mitigation policies are being implemented but local emissions lead to spatially and temporally complex atmospheric mixing ratios. Here, we used direct observations of on-road CO2 mixing ratios with analyses of the radiocarbon (14C) content of annual grasses collected by community scientists in Los Angeles and California, USA to assess reductions in ffCO2 emissions during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. With COVID-19 mobility restrictions in place in 2020, we observed a significant reduction in ffCO2 levels across California, especially in urban centers. In Los Angeles, CO2 enhancements on freeways were 60 ± 16% lower and ffCO2 levels were 38-52% lower than in pre-pandemic years. By 2021, California's ffCO2 levels rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, albeit with substantial spatial heterogeneity related to local and regional pandemic measures. Taken together, our results indicate that a reduction in traffic emissions by ~60% (or 10-24% of Los Angeles' total ffCO2 emissions) can be robustly detected by plant 14C analysis, and pave the way for mobile- and plant-based monitoring of ffCO2 emissions in cities without CO2 monitoring infrastructure such as those in the Global South.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2117634
- PAR ID:
- 10535056
- Publisher / Repository:
- Dryad
- Date Published:
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- carbon dioxide Earth and related environmental sciences community science COVID19 fossil fuel radiocarbon
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: 2840219 bytes
- Size(s):
- 2840219 bytes
- Location:
- California, USA
- Right(s):
- Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal
- Institution:
- University of California, Irvine
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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