An official website of the United States government
Abstract We develop an earthquake simulator to study the partitioning of seismic/aseismic slip and dynamics of Earthquakes on a Heterogeneous strike‐slip Fault (HFQsim) using a generalized model of a discrete fault governed by static/dynamic friction and creep in an elastic half‐space. Previous versions of the simulator were shown to produce various realistic seismicity patterns (e.g., frequency‐magnitude event statistics, hypocenter and slip distributions, temporal occurrence) using friction levels and creep properties that vary in space but are fixed in time. The new simulator incorporates frictional heat generation by earthquake slip leading to temperature rises, subsequent diffusion cooling into the half space, and time‐dependent creep on the fault. The model assumes a power law dependence of creep velocity on the local shear stress, with temperature‐dependent coefficients based on the Arrhenius equation. Temperature rises due to seismic slip produce increased aseismic slip, which can lead to further stress concentrations, aftershocks, and heat generation in a feedback loop. The partitioning of seismic/aseismic slip and space‐time evolution of seismicity are strongly affected by the temperature changes on the fault. The results are also affected significantly by the difference between the static and kinetic friction levels. The model produces realistic spatio‐temporal distribution of seismicity, transient aseismic slip patterns, mainshock‐aftershock sequences, and a bimodal distribution of earthquakes with background and clustered events similar to observations. The HFQsim may be used to clarify relations between fault properties and different features of seismicity and aseismic slip, and to improve the understanding of failure patterns preceding large earthquakes.
more »
« less
Cascading foreshocks, aftershocks and earthquake swarms in a discrete fault network
SUMMARY Earthquakes come in clusters formed of mostly aftershock sequences, swarms and occasional foreshock sequences. This clustering is thought to result either from stress transfer among faults, a process referred to as cascading, or from transient loading by aseismic slip (pre-slip, afterslip or slow slip events). The ETAS statistical model is often used to quantify the fraction of clustering due to stress transfer and to assess the eventual need for aseismic slip to explain foreshocks or swarms. Another popular model of clustering relies on the earthquake nucleation model derived from experimental rate-and-state friction. According to this model, earthquakes cluster because they are time-advanced by the stress change imparted by the mainshock. This model ignores stress interactions among aftershocks and cannot explain foreshocks or swarms in the absence of transient loading. Here, we analyse foreshock, swarm and aftershock sequences resulting from cascades in a Discrete Fault Network model governed by rate-and-state friction. We show that the model produces realistic swarms, foreshocks and aftershocks. The Omori law, characterizing the temporal decay of aftershocks, emerges in all simulations independently of the assumed initial condition. In our simulations, the Omori law results from the earthquake nucleation process due to rate and state friction and from the heterogeneous stress changes due to the coseismic stress transfers. By contrast, the inverse Omori law, which characterizes the accelerating rate of foreshocks, emerges only in the simulations with a dense enough fault system. A high-density complex fault zone favours fault interactions and the emergence of an accelerating sequence of foreshocks. Seismicity catalogues generated with our discrete fault network model can generally be fitted with the ETAS model but with some material differences. In the discrete fault network simulations, fault interactions are weaker in aftershock sequences because they occur in a broader zone of lower fault density and because of the depletion of critically stressed faults. The productivity of the cascading process is, therefore, significantly higher in foreshocks than in aftershocks if fault zone complexity is high. This effect is not captured by the ETAS model of fault interactions. It follows that a foreshock acceleration stronger than expected from ETAS statistics does not necessarily require aseismic slip preceding the mainshock (pre-slip). It can be a manifestation of a cascading process enhanced by the topological properties of the fault network. Similarly, earthquake swarms might not always imply transient loading by aseismic slip, as they can emerge from stress interactions.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1822214
- PAR ID:
- 10536159
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford university Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Journal International
- Volume:
- 235
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0956-540X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 831 to 852
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Foreshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.more » « less
-
Foreshocks are the most obvious signature of the earthquake nucleation stage and could, in principle, forewarn of an impending earthquake. However, foreshocks are only sometimes observed, and we have a limited understanding of the physics that controls their occurrence. In this work, we use high-resolution earthquake catalogs and estimates of source properties to understand the spatiotemporal evolution of a sequence of 11 foreshocks that occurred ~ 6.5 hours before the 2020 Mw 4.8 Mentone earthquake in west Texas. Elevated pore-pressure and poroelastic stressing from subsurface fluid injection from oil-gas operations is often invoked to explain seismicity in west Texas and the surrounding region. However, here we show that static stresses induced from the initial ML 4.0 foreshock significantly perturbed the local shear stress along the fault and could have triggered the Mentone mainshock. The majority (9/11) of the earthquakes leading up to the Mentone mainshock nucleated in areas where the static shear stresses were increased from the initial ML 4.0 foreshock. The spatiotemporal properties of the 11 earthquakes that preceded the mainshock cannot easily be explained in the context of a preslip or cascade nucleation model. We show that at least 6/11 events are better classified as aftershocks of the initial ML 4.0. Together, our results suggest that a combination of physical mechanisms contributed to the occurrence of the 11 earthquakes that preceded the mainshock, including static-stressing from earthquake-earthquake interactions, aseismic creep, and stress perturbations induced from fluid injection. Our work highlights the role of earthquake-earthquake triggering in induced earthquake sequences, and suggests that such triggering could help sustain seismic activity following initial stressing perturbations from fluid injection.more » « less
-
Abstract On October 28, 2022, a moment magnitude (Mw) 3.8 earthquake occurred in Goesan, South Korea, typically characterized as a stable continental region. Herein, we analyze 42 earthquakes, including the Mw 3.8 earthquake, the largest foreshock (Mw 3.3), which preceded the mainshock by 17 s, and the largest aftershock (Mw 2.9). The primary aim of this study is to identify interactions among the seismic events. To this end, we utilized the permanent seismic networks with the closest station at 8.3 km from the epicenter, and the temporary network deployed eight hours after the mainshock’s occurrence. Relocation results delineate that the mainshock occurred at the southeastern tip of the hypocenter distribution of three foreshocks, trending west-northwest–east-southeast. The aftershocks form an overall spatially diffused seismic pattern that propagates toward both ends of the inferred lineament in the downdip direction. The rupture directivity of the mainshock, along with waveform similarity across the mainshock and foreshocks, confirms the inferred geometry, corresponding well with the focal mechanisms of the mainshock and the largest foreshock. We demonstrate that the change in Coulomb failure stress (ΔCFS) by the largest foreshock was positive where the mainshock occurred and that the mainshock generated ΔCFS capable of triggering the propagation of the aftershocks.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Abstract Fault-zone fluids control effective normal stress and fault strength. While most earthquake models assume a fixed pore fluid pressure distribution, geologists have documented fault valving behavior, that is, cyclic changes in pressure and unsteady fluid migration along faults. Here we quantify fault valving through 2-D antiplane shear simulations of earthquake sequences on a strike-slip fault with rate-and-state friction, upward Darcy flow along a permeable fault zone, and permeability evolution. Fluid overpressure develops during the interseismic period, when healing/sealing reduces fault permeability, and is released after earthquakes enhance permeability. Coupling between fluid flow, permeability and pressure evolution, and slip produces fluid-driven aseismic slip near the base of the seismogenic zone and earthquake swarms within the seismogenic zone, as ascending fluids pressurize and weaken the fault. This model might explain observations of late interseismic fault unlocking, slow slip and creep transients, swarm seismicity, and rapid pressure/stress transmission in induced seismicity sequences.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad278
