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Abstract We propose and analyze a family of epidemiological models that extend the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered/Removed (SIR)-like framework to account for dynamic heterogeneity in infection risk. The family of models takes the form of a system of reaction–diffusion equations given populations structured by heterogeneous susceptibility to infection. These models describe the evolution of population-level macroscopic quantities S , I , R as in the classical case coupled with a microscopic variable f , giving the distribution of individual behavior in terms of exposure to contagion in the population of susceptibles. The reaction terms represent the impact of sculpting the distribution of susceptibles by the infection process. The diffusion and drift terms that appear in a Fokker–Planck type equation represent the impact of behavior change both during and in the absence of an epidemic. We first study the mathematical foundations of this system of reaction–diffusion equations and prove a number of its properties. In particular, we show that the system will converge back to the unique equilibrium distribution after an epidemic outbreak. We then derive a simpler system by seeking self-similar solutions to the reaction–diffusion equations in the case of Gaussian profiles. Notably, these self-similar solutions lead to a system of ordinary differential equations including classic SIR-like compartments and a new feature: the average risk level in the remaining susceptible population. We show that the simplified system exhibits a rich dynamical structure during epidemics, including plateaus, shoulders, rebounds and oscillations. Finally, we offer perspectives and caveats on ways that this family of models can help interpret the non-canonical dynamics of emerging infectious diseases, including COVID-19.
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On the Effects of Type II Left Censoring in Stable and Chaotic Compartmental Models for Infectious Diseases: Do Small Sample Estimates Survive Censoring?
In this paper, we discuss a selection of tools from dynamical systems and order statistics, which are most often utilized separately, and combine them into an algorithm to estimate the parameters of mathematical models for infectious diseases in the case of small sample sizes and left censoring, which is relevant in the case of rapidly evolving infectious diseases and remote populations. The proposed method relies on the analogy between survival functions and the dynamics of the susceptible compartment in SIR-type models, which are both monotone decreasing in time and are both determined by a dual variable: the hazard function in survival prediction and the number of infected people in SIR-type models. We illustrate the methodology in the case of a continuous model in the presence of noisy measurements with different distributions (Normal, Poisson, Negative Binomial) and in a discrete model, reminiscent of the Ricker map, which admits chaotic dynamics. This estimation procedure shows stable results in experiments based on a popular benchmark dataset for SIR-type models and small samples. This manuscript illustrates how classical theoretical statistical methods and dynamical systems can be merged in interesting ways to study problems ranging from more fundamental small sample situations to more complex infectious disease and survival models, with the potential that this tools can be applied in the presence of a large number of covariates and different types of censored data.
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- PAR ID:
- 10536606
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the 2023 AAAI Fall Symposia
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the AAAI Symposium Series
- Volume:
- 2
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2994-4317
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 467 to 474
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Type II Left Censorin SIR Models Survival Analysis Maximum Likelihood Estimators Chaotic Dynamics Ricker Map
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1609/aaaiss.v2i1.27715
