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ABSTRACT Avian irruptions are facultative, often periodic, migrations of thousands of birds outside of their resident range. Irruptive movements produce regional anomalies of abundance that oscillate over time, forming ecological dipoles (geographically disjunct regions of low and high abundance) at continental scales. Potential drivers of irruptions include climate and food variability, but these relationships are rarely tested over broad geographic scales. We used community science data on winter bird abundance (1989–2021) to identify spatiotemporal patterns of irruption for nine boreal birds across the United States and Canada and compared them to time series of winter climate and annual tree seed production. We hypothesized that, during irruption, bird abundance would decrease in regions experiencing colder winter climates (climate variability hypothesis) or low seed production resulting from the boom‐and‐bust of widespread mast‐seeding patterns (resource variability hypothesis). Across all species, we detected latitudinal or longitudinal irruption modes, or both, demonstrating north–south and east–west migration dynamics across the northern United States and southern Canada. Seven of nine species displayed associations consistent with the climate variability hypothesis and six with the resource variability hypothesis. While irruption dynamics are likely entrained by multiple environmental drivers, future climate change could alter the spatial and temporal characteristics of avian irruption.
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A North American climate-masting-irruption teleconnection and its change under future climate
Atmospheric variability can impact biological populations by triggering facultative migrations, but the stability of these atmosphere-biosphere connections may be vulnerable to climate change. As an example, we consider the leading mode of continental-scale facultative migration of Pine Siskins, where the associated ecological mechanism is changes in resource availability, with a mechanistic pathway of climate conditions affecting mast seeding patterns in trees which in turn drive bird migration. The three summers prior to pine siskin irruption feature an alternating west-east mast-seeding dipole in conifer trees with opposite anomalies over western and eastern North America. The climate driver of this west-east mast-seeding dipole, referred to as the North American Dipole, occurs during summer in the historical record, but shifts to spring in response to future climate warming during this century in a majority of global climate models. Identification of future changes in the timing of the climate driver of boreal forest mast seeding have broadly important implications for the dynamics of forest ecosystems.
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- PAR ID:
- 10538383
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science of The Total Environment
- Volume:
- 948
- ISSN:
- 0048-9697
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 174473
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174473
