This study aims to determine the impacts of tropical island processes on local convective storms. An analysis of rain events on the island of Puerto Rico between 1 June 2015 and 31 July 2016 showed that local island‐enhanced western storms accounted for 89 of 322 storms. This period is of particular importance for the Caribbean as 2015 was one of the driest years on record. While large‐scale influences such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, African easterly waves, and Saharan dust transport modulate moisture conditions in the region, correlations between precipitation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (−0.14), North Atlantic Oscillation (−0.42), and Saharan dust (0.1) for 1980–2016 ranged from weak to moderate. Local data for the island of Puerto Rico from weather stations, the Convection, Aerosol, and Synoptic‐Effects in the Tropics field campaign, and the North American Mesoscale model support the initiation or enhancement of convective rain events due to local island processes. In particular, analysis of surface wind speed/direction, convective available potential energy, lifted index, and the bulk Richardson number substantiate local instability due to surface heating, orographic uplift, and sea breeze trade‐wind convergence. These convective forcings along with available precipitable water in excess of 50 mm ultimately led to intense storms despite severe rainfall‐mitigating dust episodes for which aerosol optical thickness exceeded 0.4. These results may have major implications for considering the impacts of local air‐sea‐land interactions on rainfall over other tropical islands.
The objective of this study is to understand rainfall processes over tropical islands by identifying synoptic conditions that influence the diurnal cycle of rainfall over western Puerto Rico. Summer rainfall over Puerto Rico is dominated by its afternoon peak, yet there is large variability in its behavior that remains challenging to predict. We use radiosonde and airborne data collected through the NASA Convective Processes Experiment—Aerosols and Winds (CPEX-AW) field campaign (August–September 2021) to achieve our objective, in addition to the network of surface station data over the island. We find that the background wind speed and humidity have strong influences on afternoon rainfall through different mechanisms. A stronger background wind inhibits afternoon rainfall likely by reducing land–sea thermal contrast and weakening sea-breeze convergence over the island. At the same time, an inversion layer often forms with a stronger background wind that further inhibits deep convection. When the background wind is weak and sea breezes are prominent, afternoon rainfall increases exclusively over the island, while limited rainfall appears over the surrounding ocean. However, enhanced rainfall still occurs over the island with weak sea breezes if humidity is high, accompanied by enhanced rainfall over the surrounding ocean due to the offshore movement and development of convective storms. The sources of variability in background wind and humidity are mostly independent, resulting in a wide range of synoptic conditions and associated effects on the island rainfall. This expanded understanding of the mechanisms causing variability of diurnal rainfall can lead to improved forecasts over Puerto Rico and other tropical islands.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10548997
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Weather Review
- Volume:
- 152
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 0027-0644
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 2341-2359
- Size(s):
- p. 2341-2359
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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