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Theoretical arguments and modeling experiments suggest that heavy precipitation is expected to intensify in a warmer climate. These projections have been supported by observational evidence at the daily scale, whereas the lack of long-term subdaily records has limited the ability to conduct analyses at shorter durations. In this study, we address this research gap using the Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Due to the presence of relatively large periods with missing observations, we first implement a procedure to reconstruct probable missing zeros using the Analysis of Record Calibration (AORC) hourly gridded product. After the reconstruction, we identify 1404 gages with more than 75% (median of 94%) of complete records in the period 1979-2019 that cover the continental U.S. with good density. We then perform trend test analyses on the hourly observations where, at each gage, (1) independent events are identified, (2) peak-over- threshold series above the 90th, 95th, and 99th quantiles are extracted, and (3) trend tests are performed on the annual frequency and mean intensity of the POT series. After accounting for field significance, we find that hourly heavy precipitation exhibits statistically significant trends that are increasing for the frequency (+1% - +2% every year) but decreasing for the intensity (- 0.4 mm/h - -1.8 mm/h every 10 years). This is true in most of the country, except for some areas in the Southwest and South regions. Analyses repeated with the signals aggregated at 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours lead to similar patterns, although a lower number of statistically significant trends is found as the duration increases. Overall, the statistical evidence of the trends is higher when focusing on the frequency rather than the intensity of heavy precipitation, and it is reduced when considering higher quantiles likely because of the lower test power. The results of this study are useful for the validation of climate and atmospheric models and the incorporation of nonstationarities due to global warming in intensity-duration- frequency curves of extreme precipitation used for infrastructure design.
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Challenges and Opportunities in the Detection of Trends in Subdaily Heavy Precipitation in the United States
Increasing empirical evidence has been showing that, over the last decades, the frequency of daily heavy precipitation has risen in some regions of the United States (U.S.); less evidence has instead been presented at subdaily resolutions. In this study, we describe the challenges and opportunities associated with the detection of trends in subdaily heavy P in the U.S. using Version 2 of the Hourly Precipitation Data (HPD) from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This dataset comprises records from 1897 gages which we found to be affected by several issues preventing their use in trend studies, including long periods with missing observations, changes of instruments, and different signal resolutions (largely, 0.254 and 2.54 mm). Despite this, after proper checks, we were able to identify 370 gages with ≥40 years of statistically homogenous data in 1950-2010 that cover the U.S. with a good density. To improve the ability to detect trends, we designed a framework that quantifies the degree to which the observed over-threshold series above a given empirical q-quantile are consistent with stationary count time series with the same marginal distribution and serial correlation structure as the observations. We also applied the false discovery rate test to account for spatial dependence and multiplicity of the local tests. Analyses were performed for the signals aggregated at Δt = 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h and for q = 0.95, 0.97, and 0.99, finding that most gages exhibit increasing trends across all Δt’s and that their statistical significance increases with Δt and decreases with q, but only for Δt ≥ 2 h. This might indicate that the physical generating mechanisms of precipitation have changed in a way that leads to larger accumulations over durations >1 h but similar intensities within 1 h. An alternative possible explanation for these outcomes is instead that the coarse signal resolution (2.54 mm) reduces the power of the test for trend detection as Δt decreases. Investigating these issues will be the subject of our immediate future work.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2212702
- PAR ID:
- 10555593
- Publisher / Repository:
- European Geophysical Union
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Posted Content:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-12710
