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Abstract The thawing of permafrost in the Arctic has led to an increase in coastal land loss, flooding, and ground subsidence, seriously threatening civil infrastructure and coastal communities. However, a lack of tools for synthetic hazard assessment of the Arctic coast has hindered effective response measures. We developed a holistic framework, the Arctic Coastal Hazard Index (ACHI), to assess the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to permafrost thawing, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding. We quantified the coastal permafrost thaw potential (PTP) through regional assessment of thaw subsidence using ground settlement index. The calculations of the ground settlement index involve utilizing projections of permafrost conditions, including future regional mean annual ground temperature, active layer thickness, and talik thickness. The predicted thaw subsidence was validated through a comparison with observed long-term subsidence data. The ACHI incorporates the PTP into seven physical and ecological variables for coastal hazard assessment: shoreline type, habitat, relief, wind exposure, wave exposure, surge potential, and sea-level rise. The coastal hazard assessment was conducted for each 1 km2coastline of North Slope Borough, Alaska in the 2060s under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 forcing scenarios. The areas that are prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution pattern of the ACHI. The calculated coastal hazards potential was subjected to validation by comparing it with the observed and historical long-term coastal erosion mean rates. This framework for Arctic coastal assessment may assist policy and decision-making for adaptation, mitigation strategies, and civil infrastructure planning.
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Permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion are transforming Alaska’s Arctic coastal zone
Arctic shorelines are vulnerable to climate change impacts as sea level rises, permafrost thaws, storms intensify, and sea ice thins. Seventy-five years of aerial and satellite observations have established coastal erosion as an increasing Arctic hazard. However, other hazards at play—for instance, the cumulative impact that sea-level rise and permafrost thaw subsidence will have on permafrost shorelines—have received less attention, preventing assessments of these processes’ impacts compared to and combined with coastal erosion. Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for such assessments because of the high-density observations of topography, coastal retreat rates, and permafrost characteristics, and importance to Indigenous communities and oilfield infrastructure. Here, we produce 21st-century projections of Arctic shoreline position that include erosion, permafrost subsidence, and sea-level rise. Focusing on the ACP, we merge 5 m topography, satellite-derived coastal lake depth estimates, and empirical assessments of land subsidence due to permafrost thaw with projections of coastal erosion and sea-level rise for medium and high emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s AR6 Report. We find that by 2100, erosion and inundation will together transform the ACP, leading to 6-8x more land loss than coastal erosion alone and disturbing 8-11x more organic carbon. Without mitigating measures, by 2100, coastal change could damage 40 to 65% of infrastructure in present-day ACP coastal villages and 10 to 20% of oilfield infrastructure. Our findings highlight the risks that compounding climate hazards pose to coastal communities and underscore the need for adaptive planning for Arctic coastlines in the 21st century.
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- PAR ID:
- 10558339
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 121
- Issue:
- 50
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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