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1. Basis expansions for functional snippets

   https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asaa088  

   Lin, Zhenhua; Wang, Jane-Ling; Zhong, Qixian (October 2020, Biometrika)

   null (Ed.)

   Summary Estimation of mean and covariance functions is fundamental for functional data analysis. While this topic has been studied extensively in the literature, a key assumption is that there are enough data in the domain of interest to estimate both the mean and covariance functions. We investigate mean and covariance estimation for functional snippets in which observations from a subject are available only in an interval of length strictly, and often much, shorter than the length of the whole interval of interest. For such a sampling plan, no data is available for direct estimation of the off-diagonal region of the covariance function. We tackle this challenge via a basis representation of the covariance function. The proposed estimator enjoys a convergence rate that is adaptive to the smoothness of the underlying covariance function, and has superior finite-sample performance in simulation studies. 

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2. Functional principal component analysis with informative observation times

   https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asae055  

   Sang, Peijun; Kong, Dehan; Yang, Shu (October 2024, Biometrika)

   Summary Functional principal component analysis has been shown to be invaluable for revealing variation modes of longitudinal outcomes, which serve as important building blocks for forecasting and model building. Decades of research have advanced methods for functional principal component analysis, often assuming independence between the observation times and longitudinal outcomes. Yet such assumptions are fragile in real-world settings where observation times may be driven by outcome-related processes. Rather than ignoring the informative observation time process, we explicitly model the observational times by a general counting process dependent on time-varying prognostic factors. Identification of the mean, covariance function and functional principal components ensues via inverse intensity weighting. We propose using weighted penalized splines for estimation and establish consistency and convergence rates for the weighted estimators. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed estimators are substantially more accurate than the existing ones in the presence of a correlation between the observation time process and the longitudinal outcome process. We further examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed method using the Acute Infection and Early Disease Research Program study. 

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3. Flexible Bayesian modeling for longitudinal binary and ordinal responses

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-024-10525-2  

   Kang, Jizhou; Kottas, Athanasios (December 2024, Statistics and Computing)

   Abstract Longitudinal studies with binary or ordinal responses are widely encountered in various disciplines, where the primary focus is on the temporal evolution of the probability of each response category. Traditional approaches build from the generalized mixed effects modeling framework. Even amplified with nonparametric priors placed on the fixed or random effects, such models are restrictive due to the implied assumptions on the marginal expectation and covariance structure of the responses. We tackle the problem from a functional data analysis perspective, treating the observations for each subject as realizations from subject-specific stochastic processes at the measured times. We develop the methodology focusing initially on binary responses, for which we assume the stochastic processes have Binomial marginal distributions. Leveraging the logits representation, we model the discrete space processes through continuous space processes. We utilize a hierarchical framework to model the mean and covariance kernel of the continuous space processes nonparametrically and simultaneously through a Gaussian process prior and an Inverse-Wishart process prior, respectively. The prior structure results in flexible inference for the evolution and correlation of binary responses, while allowing for borrowing of strength across all subjects. The modeling approach can be naturally extended to ordinal responses. Here, the continuation-ratio logits factorization of the multinomial distribution is key for efficient modeling and inference, including a practical way of dealing with unbalanced longitudinal data. The methodology is illustrated with synthetic data examples and an analysis of college students’ mental health status data. 

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4. Equilibrium strategies for time-inconsistent stochastic switching systems

   https://doi.org/10.1051/cocv/2018051  

   Mei, Hongwei; Yong, Jiongmin (January 2019, ESAIM: Control, Optimisation and Calculus of Variations)

   An optimal control problem is considered for a stochastic differential equation containing a state-dependent regime switching, with a recursive cost functional. Due to the non-exponential discounting in the cost functional, the problem is time-inconsistent in general. Therefore, instead of finding a global optimal control (which is not possible), we look for a time-consistent (approximately) locally optimal equilibrium strategy. Such a strategy can be represented through the solution to a system of partial differential equations, called an equilibrium Hamilton–Jacob–Bellman (HJB) equation which is constructed via a sequence of multi-person differential games. A verification theorem is proved and, under proper conditions, the well-posedness of the equilibrium HJB equation is established as well. 

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5. Asymptotic Analysis via Stochastic Differential Equations of Gradient Descent Algorithms in Statistical and Computational Paradigms

   Wang, Yazhen; Wu, Shang (September 2021, Journal of machine learning research)

   Bach, Francis; Blei, David; Scholkopf, Bernhard (Ed.)

   This paper investigates the asymptotic behaviors of gradient descent algorithms (particularly accelerated gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent) in the context of stochastic optimization arising in statistics and machine learning, where objective functions are estimated from available data. We show that these algorithms can be computationally modeled by continuous-time ordinary or stochastic differential equations. We establish gradient flow central limit theorems to describe the limiting dynamic behaviors of these computational algorithms and the large-sample performances of the related statistical procedures, as the number of algorithm iterations and data size both go to infinity, where the gradient flow central limit theorems are governed by some linear ordinary or stochastic differential equations, like time-dependent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. We illustrate that our study can provide a novel unified framework for a joint computational and statistical asymptotic analysis, where the computational asymptotic analysis studies the dynamic behaviors of these algorithms with time (or the number of iterations in the algorithms), the statistical asymptotic analysis investigates the large-sample behaviors of the statistical procedures (like estimators and classifiers) that are computed by applying the algorithms; in fact, the statistical procedures are equal to the limits of the random sequences generated from these iterative algorithms, as the number of iterations goes to infinity. The joint analysis results based on the obtained gradient flow central limit theorems lead to the identification of four factors—learning rate, batch size, gradient covariance, and Hessian—to derive new theories regarding the local minima found by stochastic gradient descent for solving non-convex optimization problems. 

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